BSE Limited NSE: BSE · India · Rs crore

The stock-exchange operator (Asia's oldest exchange, est. 1875), itself listed only on NSE. Not the Sensex index; not companies listed on BSE. Data as of 9 Oct 2026; latest results FY26 (audited, 7 May 2026) and Q1 FY27 (unaudited, 4 Aug 2026). Q2 FY27 not yet reported.

Quick Verdict Scorecard

Q1 FY27 snapshot (Jun-26 quarter)

Data reconciliation register (contested figures shown, not silently resolved)

Data freshness: prices 9 Oct 2026 close; shareholding Jun-26 (Sep-26 pattern not filed as of 9 Oct; due ~21 Oct); financials Q1 FY27.

Analyst Notes

What happened. In three years BSE went from a sub-1% derivatives also-ran to roughly a third of Indian options premium. FY26 revenue from operations rose 63% to Rs 4,834 cr and attributable PAT 88% to Rs 2,497 cr. Equity-derivatives revenue went from about Rs 180 cr in FY24 to Rs 1,415 cr in FY25 and Rs 3,134 cr in FY26. Operating leverage was dramatic: company-defined operating EBITDA margin rose from 51% to 64%, and RoE reached ~45%. The three listed exchanges' revenue pool grew ~11% in FY26 while NSE's income fell 2.4%, so BSE took almost all of the incremental equity fee growth.

What changed in Q1 FY27. It was the 14th straight record quarter, but the first in this up-cycle where revenue from operations (+0.1% QoQ) and transaction charges (+1% QoQ) did not grow. The 10% QoQ PAT rise came below the operating line: investment income nearly doubled on a bond mark-to-market reversal (Rs 135 cr vs ~Rs 67 cr), and Q4's ~Rs 40 cr ECL provision on an old Rs 80 cr NSE receivable at ICCL did not recur. Monthly premium turnover peaked in April 2026. July averaged ~Rs 25,401 cr/day (~15% below the Q1 average), and August options ADTO fell 12% MoM after the Closing Auction Session (CAS) started on 3 Aug. In short, the slope has flattened [Analyst View].

Regulation sets the price, and five shocks hit in 12 months. These were the Budget STT hike (Apr-26), RBI bank-guarantee and prop-lending norms (1 Jul 2026, with legacy BGs still running off), CAS (3 Aug 2026), the SEBI settlement-price consultation (12 Sep 2026), and the still-live idea of moving weekly expiries to monthly (floated Sep-25). BSE's share is partly a regulatory gift (the Thursday expiry slot from 1 Sep 2025) and partly price (an implied yield of ~Rs 3,200 per crore of premium vs NSE's ~Rs 3,500). Domestic prop traders are ~50% of BSE notional, and SEBI's own data shows ~90% of individual F&O traders lose money. The social licence is thin. One offsetting positive: Reuters reports SEBI will likely suspend CAS for derivatives settlement and revert to a 30-minute VWAP for at least a year (reported again on 6 Oct; an end-Oct start cited in earlier coverage is unconfirmed). No circular has been issued yet.

What the market is pricing. The stock is down 25.5% from its Rs 4,446.80 peak (27 May 2026), more than the 5-17% EPS cuts across houses. Consensus expects EPS +27% in FY27E (Rs 76.98) and +15% in FY28E (Rs 88.83). At Rs 3,313 that is 43x and 37x. NSE listed on 24 Sep 2026 at a lower multiple (~42x FY26, ~35x annualised Q1), so BSE has lost its scarcity premium as the only listed Indian exchange. Street targets cluster at Rs 3,750-4,060 (~40x FY28-29E). The PL Rs 4,850 / Bernstein Rs 2,820 spread is 72%, which says the volume outlook is genuinely uncertain.

What tempers the bear case. The franchise beyond options is real and sticky, though small (~15-20% of revenue): listing (5,600+ companies, 750+ SME), StAR MF (234 m orders/qtr, +28%), index IP (SENSEX, 200+ indices, Rs 9.78 lakh cr tracked), colocation (Rs 51 cr/qtr, priced at ~20% of market for order flow), and data, which goes in-house from 1 Jan 2027 after 13 years with Deutsche Börse. The 15% CDSL stake (~Rs 3,940 cr) and ~Rs 5,500 cr of own net cash cover ~7% of market cap. Core SGF contributions step down from 5% to 3.5%. About 54% of opex is volume-linked, which cushions margins in a downturn. Domestic MFs (UTI, Nippon) took a Rs 1,678 cr block at Rs 3,200 on 29 Sep, and Nifty 50 inclusion brought ~US$660 m of passive demand.

What amplifies the bear case. Q1 FY27 margins are 66.8% vs NSE's 82.5%. BSE has a higher cost ratio and a lower price, and NSE can match the ~8-9% discount at will. There are recurring one-offs: Q3 FY26 labour-code (Rs 22 cr) and SGF (Rs 45.6 cr) charges plus an impairment, Q4 FY26's NSE ECL, and Q1 FY27's MTM gain. Core PAT is therefore noisier than the headline. Management's tone moved from celebratory (Q4) to guarded (Q1 FY27): it "does not track market share as a primary metric", "hard to isolate" regulatory effects, and declined to say whether costs are at a steady state. The CEO's term ends by Jan 2028 at the latest, and no extension filing exists.

How to read the rest of this report. Watch three things. (1) Q2 FY27 premium ADPT vs the ~Rs 25,000 cr/day threshold after CAS and RBI norms; Nuvama (6 Oct preview) puts Q2 FY27 index-options ADPT at ~Rs 22,500 cr/day (-23.9% QoQ) [broker estimate], below it. (2) Monthly premium share (~31.5% in Q1 FY27) for signs of a plateau. (3) Any SEBI paper on expiry frequency. The financial quality is not in doubt. The open question is the durability of a regulator-allocated revenue stream at ~43x forward [Analyst View].

Business Deep-Dive

3.1 Equity derivatives (SENSEX, BANKEX, sectoral F&O)

3.2 Equity cash market

5,600+ listed stocks (5,647 per Wikipedia). Target: "meaningful double-digit" cash share by early CY2027, via the common contract note (live 27 Jun 2025, achieved "on paper") and best-price execution (pending). Tick sizes were cut for ~650 stocks, lifting share in those from <10% to ~12%.

3.3 Listing and primary-market services

3.4 BSE StAR MF and StAR NPS

FY26: 4.74 cr new SIPs; 2,951 distributors added; 28.1 cr registered investors (293 m Q1 FY27). StAR NPS launched Apr 2026 (connecting CRAs and PFMs). Department of Posts MoU (signed 12 Dec 2025; reported Jan 2026) uses India Post as an MF distribution channel. Rivals: NSE NMF-II, MF Utilities (AMC-owned); share excludes MFU and AMC-direct.

3.5 Colocation and connectivity

3.6 Index, data, clearing, GIFT City

3.7 Subsidiaries (FY26 AR, Form AOC-1; Rs cr)

3.8 Associates (AOC-1 Part B; FY26 share of profit, Rs cr)

IIBH: in Aug-26 the board approved buying 50 cr IIBH shares from India INX and India ICC for Rs 50.50 cr cash. This takes BSE's direct stake from 3.33% to 20% (SEBI cleared 13 Jul 2026). Completion is not confirmed.

3.9 Technology, facilities, certifications, IP

Segment Analysis

4.1 Revenue lines (Rs cr)

*Press reports +14%; Rs 97.7 vs Rs 70 cr is +40%. The definitions differ. FY24 revenue from operations of Rs 1,371 cr is confirmed by the Q1 FY27 deck. FY25/FY26 lines are verified against FY26 AR consolidated note 22 and the standalone MD&A split.

4.2 FY26 revenue mix chart (Rs cr, AR note 22)

4.3 Profitability (company definitions)

Dropped figures: "FY26 EBITDA Rs 3,393 cr at 48%" (3,393/5,148 = 66%) and "77% Q1 EBITDA margin" do not reconcile. Long run: total income Rs 654.7 cr (FY21) to Rs 5,148 cr (FY26), ~51% CAGR. PAT Rs 141.7 cr to Rs 2,475.5 cr (continuing). Standalone Q1 FY27: total income Rs 1,601 cr (+69%), PAT Rs 801 cr (+71%).

4.4 Cost structure - the "COGS" of an exchange (Q1 FY27, Rs cr)

Regulatory plus clearing costs = 52.7-54% of opex in Q1 FY27 (51% Q3 FY26, 53% FY26, 48% Q1 FY26). Labour codes added ~Rs 22 cr to employee cost in Q3 FY26. Gross-profit proxy (revenue less volume-linked costs): Q1 FY27 Rs 1,283 cr (81.9%) vs Q1 FY26 Rs 787 cr (82.2%).

4.5 Fastest grower vs under pressure

Management focus by segment

• Derivatives: "expanding and strengthening participation" rather than volume alone; monthly and far-week contracts; new sector indices; commodity entry "not me-too".
• Cash: double-digit share by early CY2027; CEO "unhappy" with 7-8%; blames brokers' SOR delays ("pending for over six months at rival exchanges").
• Non-transaction: corporate-bond framework, data in-house from Jan-27, StAR NPS, electronic gold reserves, IIBH bullion, colocation repricing.

Financials: P&L

5.1 Five-year annual P&L (consolidated, Screener annual basis, Rs cr)

TTM column basis note: TTM revenue (Rs 5,442 cr = 1,068 + 1,244 + 1,564 + 1,566) and TTM EBITDA (Rs 3,499 cr) are sums of Screener quarterly figures, which use revenue from operations only; investment income sits in TTM other income (Rs 437 cr). The FY26 67.9% vs TTM 64.3% EBITDA margin gap is therefore a definition change, not margin erosion.

5.2 Longer history and CAGR

*FY18 PAT includes Rs 529 cr other income, mainly the CDSL IPO stake-sale gain.

5.3 FY26 line items (FY26 AR consolidated notes 22, 23, 27; Rs cr)

Standalone split (MD&A): equity derivatives Rs 3,134.4 cr vs Rs 1,415.5 cr; StAR MF Rs 284.9 cr vs Rs 230.8 cr; equity cash Rs 250.2 cr vs Rs 303.6 cr; colocation Rs 169.0 cr vs Rs 72.6 cr. Q1 FY27 deck (slide 25): transaction 1,327.7; treasury 40.0; listing 100.7; other op. 97.7; investment 135.2; other 5.5; employee 87.1; tech 60.8; regulatory 192.8; clearing 90.3; other exp. 63.2; D&A 42.6; Core SGF 25.9; operating EBITDA 1,046.0 (67%); PAT attributable 874.0.

5.4 Last 8 quarters (consolidated; revenue = revenue from operations; Rs cr)

Base quarters Jun-23 to Jun-24 (Screener): revenue 260/362/426/539/602; EBITDA 114/189/146/151/282; PAT 440/118/106/107/264. Other income per quarter Q2 FY25 to Q1 FY27: 30, 83, 205, 115, 91, 108, 78, 160. Expenses: 358, 533, 362, 332, 388, 512, 523, 520.

5.5 PAT definitions by source

5.6 Quarter detail

5.7 One-offs to normalise

5.8 Standalone P&L (Screener)

Balance Sheet, Cash Flow & Ratios

6.1 Five-year balance sheet (consolidated, 31 Mar, Rs cr)

• PP&E more than doubled (FY26 capex Rs 515 cr vs ~Rs 150 cr/yr FY23-25), driven by tech, data centre, colocation and premises. Not itemised.
• The balance sheet is inflated by ICCL clearing liabilities (Rs 6,773 cr), matched by earmarked bank balances and investments in other assets (Rs 8,890 cr). These are not free cash.
• Net worth Rs 7,547 cr at Jun-26 (company). Standalone FY26: net worth Rs 5,767 cr (82 + 5,685), investments Rs 3,772 cr, fixed assets Rs 527 cr + CWIP Rs 72 cr, total assets Rs 7,522 cr, no borrowings.

6.2 Cash flow and PAT-to-OCF reconciliation (consolidated, Rs cr)

Standalone cash flow (the cleaner conversion measure)

6.3 Working capital (consolidated)

Negative WC days reflect the margin float at ICCL. The move to -333 is a ratio effect (revenue up 6x, float up ~2x), not deterioration. Receivables are ~2.3x payables.

6.4 Ratios

6.5 Debt, rating, contingent items

6.6 Equity dilution and share-count history

Balance-sheet risks: SGF top-ups as derivatives OI grows; inter-CCP receivables; rising capex intensity; earmarked funds mistaken for free cash; P/B and RoE depend on how Core SGF is classified.

Management, Ownership & Governance (no-promoter MII)

7.1 The control framework that replaces a promoter

7.2 MD & CEO - Sundararaman Ramamurthy

7.3 Executive Directors (SEBI-mandated, 2026)

ED pay per ballot notice: Rs 3.45 cr/yr (Rs 2.59 cr fixed, Rs 0.86 cr variable); not clear if per ED. ~8.6-8.8% dissent is notable for routine appointments. Ballot sent 24 Jun 2026 to 9,55,613 members; 9,85,365 eligible (excl. trading members); scrutiniser Bhaskar Upadhyay (N L Bhatia & Associates); e-voting via CDSL.

7.4 CFO, KMP and senior management

Headcount 850. Average non-managerial raise 31% vs managerial 20%. CTO, GC and HR head changed in 2024-26 (moderate churn); no adverse resignation letters found.

7.5 Board of Directors (Oct 2026)

Committees: Audit (Srinivasan chair; Chaudhuri, Balasubramanya, Mukkavilli); NRC and Compensation (Paul). One woman director (meets the minimum). Board attendance: not retrieved.

21st AGM (19 Aug 2026) voting: all three resolutions passed. FY26 accounts and the Rs 10 final dividend passed with 99.999% in favour. The re-appointment of shareholder director Jagannath Mukkavilli passed with 83.37% for and 16.63% against; trading members were barred from voting on it under SECC Reg. 2(ka). SEBI approved the re-appointment on 11 Sep 2026. A one-in-six vote against is notable for a board seat at a no-promoter MII. The KKC auditor appointment was not on the AGM agenda. Investor meetings in Sep-26: J.P. Morgan (21 Sep), Schonfeld, Axis Max Life and William Blair (22 Sep), Westwood Global (24 Sep) and BlackRock (29 Sep, virtual).

7.6 Shareholding pattern

Classification break at Sep-25: the ~21% "others" bucket (LIC, strategic institutions, trading members) was reclassified. This is not buying. Institutional holding 45.55% (18.58 cr shares) Jun-26 vs 29.41% Jun-25 (22.7% Jun-24). FII trend since Dec-23: 12.0, 13.0, 11.1, 13.0, 16.0, 16.8, 18.1, 16.3, 17.5, 19.4, 21.3. MF schemes holding: 248 to 287 in Q1 FY27. Trading members' 7.7% (one source) is not a separate line in the NSE XBRL. Outliers excluded: Anand Rathi FII 9.63%, Choice DII 0.55%. Sep-26 pattern not filed as of 9 Oct.

7.7 Top holders and retail breakdown (Jun-26, NSE XBRL)

7.8 Bulk deals, insider and SAST

Interpretation: dealer and arbitrage books (P-note, swap and index-arbitrage hedges) exited into inclusion-day passive demand; domestic MFs accumulated at Rs 3,200. Stock closed Rs 3,092 (-3.4%) on 30 Sep (intraday low Rs 3,075). No director or KMP open-market trades identified (Trendlyne insider page 404). No LIC SAST trigger found. Trading window closed from 1 Oct 2026 until 48 hours after Q2 results. Investor meetings Sep-26: J.P. Morgan (21), Schonfeld, Axis Max Life, William Blair (22), Westwood Global (24), BlackRock (29, virtual). Block-deal history beyond this: GAP.

7.9 Related-party transactions (FY26 AR, Rs cr)

All RPTs ordinary course and arm's length; AOC-2 not applicable; balances unsecured and interest-free. Dividends upstreamed ~Rs 100 cr in FY26. The latest Reg 23(9) disclosure (13 Nov 2025, H1 FY26) could not be parsed.

7.10 Auditors

7.11 Group structure, contribution and deal record

7.12 Regulatory actions and governance red flags

MCA/NCLT: nothing adverse. A s.270A/ITAT item found in search relates to another company and is excluded. Open gaps: regulatory-fee arrears payment, Asia Index price, Saurabh Shukla background, PID reappointment dates, SAT appeal, bulk-SMS outcome, LIC SAST filings, board attendance.

Supply Chain

BSE makes no physical goods. Its "production" is order matching, risk management, clearing and settlement, and data and index computation. Its "supply chain" is regulatory licences, liquidity providers, technology and clearing.

↑ Upstream - what BSE depends on

Supplier concentration: effectively one regulator (SEBI), RBI (benchmark authorisation; broker funding) and Deutsche Börse (data until Dec-26). BSE sets its own fee schedules subject to SEBI approval and the true-to-label uniform-charges rule. It cannot pass regulatory fees through beyond its own fee schedule.

↓ Downstream - who depends on BSE

End products containing BSE output: broker option-trading apps (SENSEX options), index funds and ETFs, MF SIP orders via StAR MF, IPO allotments, market-data feeds. Derivatives liquidity is not contractually sticky; it moves on expiry-day rules (the 2025 expiry swap showed this).

Value-chain map

Inputs:  SEBI licence + regulatory fees | Tech / colo hardware | Index IP (SENSEX) | Deutsche Börse data (to Dec-26) | Bank BGs to brokers (RBI)
            |
BSE:     Exchange (BOLT Plus) + BSE Clearing CCP + BSE Index Services + StAR MF/NPS + India INX/ICC ; 15% CDSL
            |
Members: ~600 brokers (discount brokers, prop desks, FPI custodian-brokers) | 50 AMCs, 84k distributors | 5,600+ issuers
            |
End users: retail option traders (11.2 m UCCs) | prop/HFT (~50% of notional) | ~650 FPIs | MF investors (293 m) | passive-fund investors

Where pricing power sits

Competitive Position

9.1 Industry structure

9.2 Size, growth, trends

• NSE + BSE >80% of global equity-derivatives contracts (FIA, Apr-26); NSE the world's largest derivatives exchange by contracts since 2019.
• Three listed exchanges earned ~Rs 26,100 cr in FY26 (+11.2% vs ~Rs 23,500 cr): NSE Rs 18,713 cr total income (-2.4% vs Rs 19,177 cr); BSE Rs 5,124 cr (+Rs 1,912 cr); MCX Rs 2,302 cr (+Rs 1,189 cr). Equities-only NSE+BSE ~+6.5%.
• NSE options transaction charges: Rs 9,550 cr (FY24), Rs 10,194 cr (FY25), Rs 9,998 cr (FY26, -1.9%); Q1 FY27 Rs 2,744 cr (+15.6%). The fee pool is flat to modestly growing; BSE captured most of the increment.
• Industry notional fell 16% in 2025 (first fall); NSE F&O turnover -18% FY26. Industry cash ADTV -6% to ~Rs 1.13 lakh cr; derivatives ADTV +4.6% to Rs 447 lakh cr. BSE notional derivatives share 38% (Sep-25) to 44% (Mar-26); average trade size Rs 18,720 to Rs 22,822.
• BSE premium ADTV: Rs 47 cr (Q1 FY24) to Rs 29,615 cr (Q1 FY27); derivatives revenue ~Rs 0.2 cr to Rs 1,155 cr per quarter.
• SEBI study: ~9 in 10 individual F&O traders lose money (avg ~Rs 50,000; ~28% of losses are transaction costs). Measures: Rs 15 lakh contract size, upfront premium, no calendar-spread benefit on expiry, +2% ELM on expiry, intraday position monitoring, delta-based OI limits, STT hike.
• Expiry engineering: BSE's Tuesday expiry lifted premium share from 16.4% (Dec-24) to 22.1% (Feb-25); 22.6% May-25; moved to Thursday from 1 Sep 2025.
• CAS from 3 Aug 2026: CAS prints <1% of cash turnover; Sensex puts +400-500% on expiry; indicative Sensex -2.5% in the 3 Sep auction. SEBI consultation 12 Sep 2026 (comments to 3 Oct; ~20,000 received). Reuters (6 Oct): CAS likely suspended for derivatives settlement for at least a year, replaced by the last-30-minute VWAP; CAS stays for the cash close. No effective date or circular yet (an end-Oct start in earlier coverage is unconfirmed).
• NSE IPO: 100% OFS of 12.64 cr shares (Rs 22,563 cr), 5.71x subscribed (QIB 12.68x, retail 1.39x); sellers SBI Rs 2,850 cr, CPPIB Rs 2,119 cr, Aranda/Temasek Rs 2,007 cr, MS Strategic Rs 1,963 cr, New India Assurance Rs 1,874 cr. Listed on BSE 24 Sep 2026 at Rs 1,785 (~Rs 4.42 lakh cr); Rs 1,749.85 on 6 Oct.
• SEBI stalled NCDEX and MSE entry into equity options. MSE: Rs 1,000 cr raise (26 Aug 2025; CEO Latika Kundu reappointed); new engine live 27 Jan 2026; >Rs 1,200 cr raised; Budget-day session 1 Feb 2026; Rs 238 cr preferential at Rs 2 (Groww parent, Rainmatter, Share India; EGM pending, unconfirmed). Planned SX40 relaunch. No material share.

9.3 Policy timeline

9.4 Market share

Other segments: cash ~7% (NSE 93.05% Q1 FY27, 92.99% FY26, 93.57% FY25); futures ~0.3% at zero fees; stock options negligible ("difficult"; 200+ undifferentiated underlyings; BSE fee 0.005% vs NSE 0.0355%); monthly/far-week ~5-6% of contracts.

9.5 Peer comparison (~9 Oct 2026)

Screener consolidated for BSE, MCX, CDSL, CAMS, KFin (recomputed; Screener display KFin 41.7x, CDSL 55.8x). NSE from RHP restated. NSE FY26 PAT drop mainly cost-driven (check RHP one-offs). NSE Q1 FY27: total income Rs 5,252 cr, EBITDA Rs 4,332 cr (82.5%), PAT Rs 3,120 cr. BSE EV excludes restricted funds; own free funds ~Rs 5,000-5,500 cr [Est.]. Global: CME, ICE, HKEX, Deutsche Börse ~20-30x P/E, ~15-22x EV/EBITDA. DAM Capital: NSE IPO priced at an 18.6% P/E discount to BSE (42.9x vs 52.7x FY26 EPS).

9.6 BSE vs NSE operating KPIs (Q1 FY27)

9.7 Strengths and weaknesses vs each peer

9.8 Barriers, Porter's Five Forces, moat

Barriers (high): SECC 2018 recognition, minimum net worth (Rs 100 cr exchange; Rs 300 cr clearing corporation), fit-and-proper tests, ownership caps, SGF capitalisation; liquidity network effects (BSE's own 2010-11 and 2015-16 pushes failed); tech capex (microsecond matching, colocation, DR/PR, surveillance; 80+ systems being replaced); clearing capital; entrenched benchmarks (Sensex since 1986, Nifty). Only live entrant: MSE.

9.9 SWOT

Risks & Red Flags

10.1 Risk register

10.2 Red-flag checklist

10.3 Monitorables (next 2-3 quarters)

1. Final SEBI circular on CAS / derivatives settlement (Reuters 6 Oct: rollback likely; timing unconfirmed).
2. Monthly premium share for Sep/Oct-26; Q2 FY27 vs Q1 base (Rs 1,566 cr revenue, Rs 873 cr PAT).
3. Any SEBI paper on expiry frequency.
4. NSE pricing after listing.
5. RBI BG roll-off.
6. Cash share vs double-digit target.
7. Colocation and order-flow repricing.
8. Data revenue after Jan-27.
9. Budget FY28 STT.

Concall Highlights & Guidance

11.1 Quarter-by-quarter log

11.2 Reconciliation notes (company vs Screener)

• EPS: company divides by 411.98 mn issued (incl. ~4.1 mn abeyance); Screener by ~407.9 mn. FY26 Rs 60.61 vs Rs 61.22; FY25 Rs 32.18 vs Rs 32.65; Q1 FY27 ~Rs 21.2 vs Rs 21.43.
• Operating EBITDA = revenue from ops - (opex excl. D&A + Core SGF). It reproduces FY25 1,500, FY26 3,079, Q1 FY27 1,046. Opex definition changed: Q1 FY26 quoted Rs 359 cr (incl. D&A) on its own call vs Rs 332 cr on the Q1 FY27 call.
• QoQ revenue growth +11%, +16%, +26%, then +0.1%. Q1 FY27 PAT +10% QoQ came from other income (+~Rs 82 cr) and the non-recurrence of the Rs 40 cr provision.

11.3 Analyst Q&A that reveals hidden risk

11.4 Guidance vs outcome (credibility check)

11.5 Themes and contradictions

11.6 Retail forum read (ValuePickr, 1,150+ posts)

Retail debates: pricing-led vs product-led share (BSE ~55% of F&O notional Apr-26 via lower fees); premium vs notional share; CAS and writer exodus; NSE listing as drain vs validation; 50-55x "reasonable" vs NSE ~43x on 3x revenue; low dividend. Reddit/X/Morningstar not accessible. Media: "BSE shareholders in a fix: two downgrades in two days". Anand James (Geojit) technical target Rs 4,200 (year ambiguous; unverified).

11.7 Price-moving events (last 12 months)

Growth, Outlook & Valuation

12.1 Revenue-visibility proxies

12.2 Expansion, products, catalysts

12.3 Consensus estimates

12.4 Brokerage coverage (latest per house; implied vs Rs 3,310 reference print)

Kotak, YES Securities and JM Financial were named as covering the stock but no targets were verified. Pre-bonus targets (Goldman 5,060, Nuvama 7,200, MOFSL 7,600) are excluded. Aggregator high Rs 4,711 sits below PL's 4,850 (unresolved). Nuvama's Rs 4,570 post-Q4 was the then-highest. Jefferies (Feb-26): RBI curbs 10-12% of options volume, ~10% earnings.

12.5 Consensus and rating changes

Net 12 months: 3 downgrades, 1 upgrade, 3 initiations; target cuts Aug-Oct 2026 at MOFSL, Nuvama (x2), JPM (x2), Jefferies (x2), PL (multiple only).

12.6 Valuation today (Rs 3,313)

Earnings multiples are near their 3-year average; P/B is well above it (RoE ~45%). Market cap rose 23x from FY23 vs PAT 12x (Rs 206 cr to TTM Rs 2,822 cr). Most of the re-rating came in FY24 (P/E 26x to 44x). The 59.1x on Q1 results day has compressed to ~48x.

12.7 Dividends and buybacks

Pre-FY26 DPS back-calculated (approximate). Payout fell from 72-74% to 16%, likely because of capex, SGF top-ups and clearing-risk capital. Dividends since FY22 total ~Rs 880 cr; FY16-26 Rs 1,773 cr. Buybacks: FY19 open market Rs 166 cr (max Rs 1,100); FY20 tender Rs 460 cr at Rs 680; FY24 tender at Rs 1,080, 86,532 shares (~Rs 9.3 cr). Total ~Rs 640 cr bottom-up vs Rs 653.5 cr in the deck (unresolved). None in FY25-FY27 YTD.

12.8 Scenario frame (12-18 months) [Analyst View, anchored on street targets]

12.9 Sensitivities and where the street disagrees

• Revenue concentration: transaction charges ~85% of revenue from ops; earnings hinge on Sensex premium ADPT and pricing.
• Regulatory cost: regulatory contribution +66% vs revenue +63% (Q1 FY27); coverage links it to the STT hike (mechanism unverified).
• Treasury: investment income 8% of total income, bond-MTM sensitive.
• Has share peaked? Bears (Bernstein, Jefferies, Nuvama) yes; bulls (Macquarie, PL) no (Sensex Next 30, Focused Midcap, Focused IT, longer-dated ~5%).
• Structural or cyclical dip: bears see a permanent reset to prop economics; bulls and the CEO see an adjustment; early-Oct premium days of Rs 45,000-78,000 cr hint at a rebound (unverified).
• Relative value: NSE ~43x vs BSE ~53-55x FY26; bulls cite growth (BSE revenue from operations +63.5% vs NSE total income -2.4%) and RoE (~45% vs ~33%).
• Street agrees: QoQ momentum stalled; regulation is the swing factor; opex rising (HSIE: SGF ~5% of transaction revenue); non-options lines growing but small (colo ~Rs 48 cr/qtr); multiple must compress from 50x+.
• PL vs Bernstein gap: 72%.

Final Verdict

5 things to remember

1. ~74% of revenue is one product (the SENSEX weekly option), and SEBI decides its expiry day.
2. Q1 FY27 was a record quarter but flat QoQ. PAT growth came from MTM and a one-off that did not recur.
3. BSE is debt-free and highly cash-generative. Consolidated cash flow is distorted by the clearing float, so use standalone (OCF/PAT 1.14x in FY26).
4. Several figures are contested: EPS (Rs 60.61 vs Rs 61.22), net worth (Rs 6,673 vs Rs 8,042 cr), buybacks (Rs 640 vs Rs 653.5 cr). Check the basis before comparing.
5. The street is polarised (Rs 2,820-4,850). The mean target is only +12%, and both tails have grown.

5 questions to ask before investing

1. What was Q2 FY27 premium ADPT, and did it hold above Rs 25,000 cr/day after CAS and RBI BG run-off?
2. Has SEBI issued the CAS-suspension circular, and is any paper on expiry frequency pending?
3. Will BSE raise options prices or colocation/order-flow charges, and will NSE respond with fee cuts?
4. Is the CEO's term being extended, or who succeeds him by Jan 2028?
5. Can cash share reach double digits by early CY27, and can monthly contracts grow beyond 5-6%?

Sources

All sources as of 9 Oct 2026. Primary filings (FY26 Annual Report, call transcripts Q4 FY25 to Q1 FY27, Q1 FY27 investor deck, shareholding XBRL) were read from the NSE archive; secondary coverage is listed below.

News sweep complete to 9 Oct 2026.

Primary filings and transcripts

• Trading-window closure from 1 Oct 2026; Q2 board date "in due course" (30 Sep 2026); BlackRock meeting schedule (24 Sep 2026)
• 21st AGM voting results and scrutinizer report (19 Aug 2026); SEBI approval of Mukkavilli re-appointment (11 Sep 2026)
• Board outcome: KKC & Associates appointment, IIBH stake (4 Aug 2026); MSCI index-derivatives media release (19 Aug 2026)
• NSE bhavcopies: 1 Feb 2026; 10 Feb 2026 (price-path check)
• BSE Annual Report FY2025-26 (NSE archive; parsed: P&L, notes 22/23/27/30/32/35-39, MD&A, AOC-1, share capital, CG report, Annexure A, KAMs) - accessed 9 Oct 2026
• Q1 FY27 investor presentation (slides 25-26) - 4 Aug 2026
• Q1 FY27 call transcript (filed 10 Aug 2026)
• Q4 FY26 call transcript (13 May 2026); Q4 FY26 PPT
• Q3 FY26 call transcript (13 Feb 2026); Q3 FY26 presentation intimation (Feb 2026, holdings table)
• Q2 FY26 call transcript (17 Nov 2025); Investor presentation Nov 2025
• Q1 FY26 call transcript (13 Aug 2025)
• Q4 FY25 call transcript (9 May 2025)
• NSE shareholding pattern XBRL, 30 Jun 2026 (filed 14 Jul 2026)
• Merger intimation 23 Apr 2026; Board outcome 6 May 2025; Chairman appointment Nov 2024; MD & CEO appointment Dec 2022
• BSE press release Q1 FY27 (403; via coverage); Q4 FY26 presentation (bseindia, 403)
• 2019 buyback draft letter of offer; 2023 buyback price revision to Rs 1,080

Regulatory and ratings

• CARE Ratings: ICCL CARE AAA; Stable (7 Feb 2025)
• SEBI order in the matter of BSE (Jun 2025)
• MSE press release, Rs 1,000 cr raise (26 Aug 2025)

Financial databases

• Screener: BSE consolidated; standalone; CDSL; MCX; CAMS; KFin - 9 Oct 2026
• StockAnalysis statistics; ratios; balance sheet; cash flow; quarterly; forecast; transcripts; quote
• Trendlyne shareholding (Jun-26); (Mar-26); research reports
• Investing.com consensus; MarketScreener; governance; company
• Value Research; Goodreturns management; block deals
• Chittorgarh: NSE IPO; Unlistedzone NSE vs BSE FY25

Results and call coverage

• Investing.com Q1 FY27 slides; in.investing.com presentation; Q1 FY27 transcript (UK mirror)
• Multibagg Q1 FY27; Q4 FY26; NSE share (RHP); NSE premium 68.48%; BSE tops NSE Apr-26; Budget STT
• Indian Masterminds Q1 FY27 / IIBH; ScanX Q1; PSU Connect; DSIJ; NiftyTrader; Quartr summary; Business Standard Q1; Kotak Neo Q1; GuruFocus Q1
• Angel One Q4; Bajaj Broking; FPJ; Ventura; Kotak Neo Q4; Sahi; Alpha Spread; ChartAlert; Liquide; Yahoo Q4 call
• Yahoo/GuruFocus Q3 FY26; PL India Q3

Brokerage, flows and sentiment

• PL Capital Q1 FY27 report (5 Aug 2026); HSIE 10 Feb 2026 (9 Feb)
• Business Today: targets 5 Aug; Jefferies 17 Aug; two downgrades 18 Aug; Bernstein 9 Sep; NSE band 11 Sep; Nifty entry 30 Sep; Ramamurthy profile Apr 2024; -19% Apr 2024; weeklies discontinued Oct 2024
• Upstox Jefferies; Upstox Bernstein; 5paisa Bernstein; 5paisa BSE vs NSE; 5paisa weekly expiry Sep-25
• IIFL Macquarie; Equentis Nifty/passive flows; HDFC Sky/PTI bulk deal; Univest bulk deal; Univest coverage list (promotional)
• Goodreturns Jefferies; Goodreturns Q1/MOFSL; Kotak Neo NSE IPO P/E; BS Goldman keeps Sell (headline)
• Khaleej Times Balachandran; Wikipedia Balachandran; Capitalmind Dec 2023
• ValuePickr BSE thread (posts #1104, #1114, #1121, #1125, #1126, #1127, #1135, #1145, #1150, #1155; p.53)

News, industry, regulation

• Sweep 20 Sep-9 Oct 2026: Business Today: Nuvama Q2 preview (6 Oct); Business Today: CAS-rollback report rally (6 Oct, citing Reuters); Business Today: Master Capital technical call (9 Oct); Bloomberg: prop shops pull back (22 Sep); StockAnalysis daily price history; Yahoo Finance USD/INR (Rs 96.63, 9 Oct 2026)
• Business Standard: expiry swap Jun-25; SEBI fee directive Apr-24; explainer; Q4 FY24 (Rs 169.77 cr); CDSL 4.54% sale; expiry competition; SEBI CAS proposal; buyback history Jul-23; 2019 buyback; MSE raise; Schwinn 2018
• Outlook Money CAS suspension; MSE Budget session; MSE Rs 238 cr; SEBI Rs 25 lakh
• Sahi SEBI review; Whalesbook NSE 65%; Whalesbook STT/leverage; Cashcows; Niftytrader; Trade Brains
• Dealroom IIBH; Stockgro rebrand
• ScanX: EDs; Raghavan; e-voting; ballot results; BTPL merger
• Moneylife Rs 3 lakh penalty; BusinessWorld bulk SMS
• Wikipedia: Bombay Stock Exchange; BSE Limited

Open gaps (searched, not found)

Q3 FY26 impairment amount; Asia Index buyout price; MD term-renewal filing; Saurabh Shukla background; PID reappointment dates; block-deal history (NSE API 503); scheme-level MF/PMS/AIF; Sep-26 shareholding (not yet filed); Sep-26 monthly options premium and market-share data (not found; Nuvama's Q2 QoQ estimate used as a proxy); Q2 FY27 board-meeting date (not intimated as of 9 Oct); final SEBI CAS circular (not issued); JPM upgrade rationale; Jefferies 7 Oct note (Rs 2,840 not corroborated in the 9 Oct sweep); Goldman current target; regulatory-fee arrears payment; SAT appeal on the Jun-25 order; bulk-SMS outcome; LIC SAST filings; board attendance; tech vendors; colocation and DR site locations; top-5/10 member revenue share.