Summary & Verdict
MTAR Technologies Ltd: build-to-print precision engineering for clean energy (Bloom Energy SOFC hot boxes), civil nuclear, space, aerospace & defence, and products. Consolidated, Rs crore.
Data as of 9 Oct 2026. Price Rs 7,660 (NSE, ~09:54 IST, Screener; intraday range ~Rs 7,613-7,700). Latest results: FY26 (audited, 12 May 2026) and Q1 FY27 (reviewed, 29 Jul 2026). Q2 FY27 not yet reported (trading window closed 23 Sep 2026).
Company overview
What it is, in plain English
MTAR machines, fabricates, brazes, surface-treats, assembles and tests low-volume, high-mix, mission-critical hardware to customers' drawings. For 55 years its name was made in Indian strategic programmes: fuelling-machine heads and drive mechanisms for NPCIL's PHWRs, control-rod drives for the fast-breeder programme, Vikas and cryogenic engine hardware for ISRO, Agni missile assemblies for DRDO. Since 2011-12 it has also built the "hot boxes" (power-module enclosures) for Bloom Energy's solid-oxide fuel-cell servers. As AI data centres turned to on-site power, Bloom became the business: the single customer above 10% of revenue took Rs 633.4 cr, 72.3% of FY26 revenue (AR note 40(c)). The order book went from ~Rs 930 cr (Jun 2025) to Rs 5,143 cr (Jun 2026), management guides ~80% revenue growth for FY27, and the stock is up ~4x in 52 weeks to ~177x trailing earnings. Fact
Analyst notes — the read before the data
What just happened. MTAR has gone from a flat, cash-hungry FY24-FY25 (revenue Rs 581 cr then Rs 676 cr; PAT down to Rs 52.9 cr; EBITDA margin 17.9%) to a step-change. Q3 FY26 to Q1 FY27 revenue ran Rs 278 cr, Rs 306 cr and Rs 361 cr. Q1 FY27 EBITDA was Rs 85.1 cr (23.6%) and PAT Rs 50.2 cr (+365%). Record inflows (Rs 2,453 cr in FY26 and Rs 2,895 cr in Q1 FY27 alone) mean the Jun-26 book is ~4.8x TTM revenue. Fact
What drives it is one customer. Bloom's CY26 revenue guide went to USD 3.9-4.2 bn (about 2x CY25) on Oracle (2.8 GW), AEP (up to 1 GW) and other data-centre deals. MTAR is scaling hot-box capacity from 8,000 to 12,000 (Mar-26), then 20,000 (Dec-26), then 30,000 units. The May 2026 blanket POs (USD 238.76 mn, amended on 30 Jul to USD 324.62 mn, ~Rs 3,100 cr) from an "existing international customer" are not named in the filings. The clean-energy jump in the Jun-26 order-book mix (51% to 67%) points to Bloom. Analyst View Bloom took 70.2%, 71.6% and 72.3% of revenue in FY24-FY26. That share is slightly above the whole fuel-cell segment's 70.2%, because Bloom also buys products-segment parts (ASP assemblies). The "diversified platform" description is a pipeline, not yet the P&L. Fact
Margins and cash need closer reading. The EBITDA expansion is operating leverage, not pricing power. Gross margin has fallen from 63.9% (FY22) to 47.7% (FY26) and 45.6% (Q1 FY27) as low-margin, material-heavy hot boxes dominate. FY26 operating cash flow of Rs 196.9 cr (209% of PAT) came from customer advances: other liabilities rose ~Rs 320 cr, while inventory (+Rs 155 cr) and receivables (+Rs 117 cr) both grew. Five-year cumulative FCF is −Rs 194 cr. Working capital fell to 59 days in Q1 FY27 because of advances, and management itself guides it back to ~100 days. Fact / Analyst View
Walk-the-talk is two-speed. Where Bloom drives the number, management has hit or beaten: clean energy grew +48% in FY26 against a +15-20% guide, and the FY27 order-book target was beaten in Q1. Elsewhere the record is weak. The FY26 margin band was missed (19.5% vs 21% ±1%). A&D grew +11% vs +80% guided. Nuclear revenue was Rs 23.6 cr vs Rs 60 cr. The FY25 and FY26 closing order books missed guidance. Fluence was dropped and the oil & gas plant slipped ~4 months. The CFO's "debt won't exceed Rs 250 cr" (Nov 2025) became Rs 369 cr by Mar-26 and Rs 424 cr by Jun-26. Fact
Insiders sell while foreigners buy. Promoter holding fell from 39.14% to 29.36% in 11 quarters. About 3.35 lakh shares (~Rs 265 cr) were sold in Q1 FY27 alone at Rs 7,500-8,400, with sales continuing in Sep 2026 (the trading window for designated persons and their immediate relatives has been closed since 1 Oct, until 48 hours after Q2 results). FPIs rose from 6.74% to 24.80% in five quarters, while legacy domestic MFs (Nippon, HDFC Defence, Franklin) trimmed. The sell-side is 3/3 Buy (TP Rs 8,294-9,375), but MOSL has issued seven successively higher targets (six raises) in 14 months, largely through multiple expansion. Fact
What the price assumes. At Rs 7,660 the stock trades at ~177x TTM EPS, ~28.6x book, ~104x TTM EV/EBITDA, ~51x MOSL's FY28E EPS and ~34-35x JM's FY29E. That is about 2x its own 3-year averages, with an FCF yield of ~0.27%. Paying this means believing that (a) Bloom keeps MTAR as majority supplier through a 3-4x volume ramp with no dual-sourcing, tariff or data-centre wobble; (b) three concurrent capacity ramps land on time; and (c) the non-Bloom verticals finally convert. Each is plausible, but all three are priced in together. Late September showed how (a) trades: Oracle's force-majeure notice on Project Jupiter (24 Sep) took MTAR down ~5% in two sessions, and Oracle's and Bloom's reaffirmation of the 2.4 GW contract brought two upper circuits. The scare passed, but the pipeline slip to Feb 2027 is a timing risk for Bloom shipments into that site. This does not change the verdict. Analyst View
Our stance: TRACK. This is a real business inflection with a qualification moat in nuclear and space. At this price there is no margin of safety for the most concentrated, buyer-dominated part of the business. We would engage on price, or on evidence that diversification is real. Analyst View
House view — scorecard
Colour key: green = strong / attractive amber = medium / neutral red = weak / expensive.
Bull case
- Bloom is supply-constrained and MTAR is the binding constraint. Bloom's CY26 revenue guide is USD 3.9-4.2 bn, its backlog ~USD 20 bn (product ~USD 6 bn). MTAR holds a "majority" of hot-box supply (~50-60% reported) and is sole supplier of SOEC electrolysers. The blanket PO (~Rs 3,100 cr) alone is ~3.5x FY26 revenue. Fact
- Operating leverage is visible. A ~28% fixed-cost base gives "at least 5%" leverage. Q1 FY27 EBITDA was 23.6% against a 24% ±100 bps FY27 guide. Brokers model 82-118% PAT CAGR and RoE of 29-37% by FY29E. Est.
- Real second legs. Nuclear book ~Rs 684 cr plus Rs 126.74 cr NPCIL (Aug-26), with Mahi Banswara and SHANTI-Act tailwinds. A&D is guided to double in FY27 (LCA Mk1A Rs 130-150 cr). SLB data-centre (Rs 45 cr, 8x potential) and Weatherford O&G (Rs 450-500 cr over 3-4 years) add more. Analyst View
Base case (12-18 months)
FY27 lands near guidance: ~Rs 1,550-1,620 cr revenue, EBITDA ~23-24%, PAT ~Rs 220-260 cr (EPS ~Rs 72-85). Working capital drifts back toward ~100 days and FCF stays thin on ~Rs 500 cr capex. On a sustained ~45-55x one-year-forward (FY28E ~Rs 150 EPS per MOSL), fair value is ~Rs 6,750-8,250, which brackets today's price. Expected return is roughly market-like, with high volatility (beta 1.39, 34% drawdown in Jul-26). Analyst View
Bear case
- A Bloom wobble is a direct P&L hit. FY24 showed how fragile it is: a Bloom deferral left revenue +1% and cut EBITDA 27%. A Taiwanese second supplier exists; Bloom owns the IP; tariffs on the ~72% of sales shipped to the US (FY25, ICRA) keep moving; Crusoe/Oracle pauses triggered −34% to −37% in a month. Fact
- Quality of growth. Gross margin is falling (45.6%). OCF depends on advances, 5-yr FCF is −Rs 194 cr, debt has doubled (Rs 369 cr, Rs 424 cr in Jun-26) and the borrowing limit was lifted to Rs 2,000 cr. A QIP is plausible. Fact / Analyst View
- Price and insider signal. At ~177x TTM, a de-rating to 30-35x FY28E (~Rs 150) gives ~Rs 4,500-5,250 (Aamara bear case, Valuation tab). Promoters have sold into every rally, MFs are distributing and the register has rotated to momentum FPIs. Analyst View
5 things to remember
- Bloom Energy = 72.3% of FY26 revenue (one customer above 10%; every other customer below 10%). The unnamed USD 324.62 mn blanket PO is very likely Bloom. Fact / Inferred
- Order book Rs 5,143 cr (Jun-26; ~Rs 5,963 cr after the 30 Jul amendment), mix 66.7% clean energy, 13.3% nuclear, 7.4% A&D, 12.6% products.
- Gross margin is falling (63.9% FY22 to 45.6% Q1 FY27). EBITDA gains are operating leverage, not pricing.
- Cash: cumulative 5-yr FCF −Rs 194 cr; FY26 OCF was advance-funded; WC of 59 days is guided back to ~100.
- Promoters 29.36% and selling (~Rs 265 cr in Q1 FY27); FPIs 24.80%; stock in T2T/ASM; valuation ~2x 3-yr average.
5 questions before investing
- What is MTAR's hot-box share at Bloom after Phase 3 (Mar-27), and what does the Taiwanese second source do to pricing?
- When does the USD 324.62 mn blanket PO actually execute ("to be decided"; MD: "next year"), and how firm is a call-off blanket PO?
- Does H2 FY27 nuclear revenue reach the "≥Rs 150 cr very comfortably" guide when Q1 was Rs 3.2 cr?
- How much of the 59-day WC and Rs 379 cr of investments is customer advances that reverse on delivery?
- Will Rs 500 cr of capex, a Rs 2,000 cr borrowing limit and a high share price lead to a QIP, and why do promoters keep selling?
MTAR is a genuine inflection: a qualified, vertically integrated precision engineer riding AI-driven on-site power and India's nuclear build-out. At ~177x TTM and ~51x FY28E for a build-to-print supplier with 72% of revenue from one customer, advance-funded cash flow and steady promoter selling, the price already discounts flawless execution. Track, do not engage yet.
Upgrade to ENGAGE if: (1) price falls to ≤~35-40x FY28E (~Rs 5,300-6,000); or (2) Q2-Q3 FY27 show observable proof: a revenue run-rate of Rs 400 cr+ per quarter with gross margin stable at ≥45%, nuclear plus A&D revenue of ≥Rs 60 cr per quarter combined, and named non-Bloom orders converting (LCA Mk1A actuators, Mahi Banswara packages, Weatherford volume production). Bloom's share can only be tested annually, in the FY27 annual report (note 40(c)), because no quarterly customer split is published; a fall below ~65% there would confirm diversification. Downgrade to DECLINE if: Bloom dual-sources or defers, gross margin falls below 43%, WC goes back above 150 days, an equity raise is priced at peak, or promoter selling accelerates.
Business 101
Products, processes, facilities, certifications, segments, order book and the full supply chain (upstream and downstream). Tags: [Co] company filing; [Rpt] media/broker; [ICRA]; [Derived] desk arithmetic; [Inferred] analyst inference.
Entity guard
This report covers MTAR Technologies Ltd (NSE: MTARTECH, BSE: 543270, CIN L72200TG1999PLC032836), Hyderabad. The history runs: partnership M/s Machine Tools Aids and Reconditioning (1969-71), then MTAR Technologies Pvt Ltd (1999), then public limited company (2 Nov 2020), then IPO in March 2021. Wholly owned subsidiaries are Gee Pee Aerospace & Defence Pvt Ltd and Magnatar Aero Systems Pvt Ltd; a merger of both is pending at NCLT.
Products, product by product
| Vertical | Product | What it is / customer | Status / data point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clean Energy - Fuel Cells, Hydel & Others (70.2% of FY26) | SOFC hot boxes / power units / power modules | Core electrochemical enclosure assemblies of Bloom Energy Servers: manifolds, heat exchangers, insulation enclosure, brazed/welded assemblies | Supplier since 2011-12 (14+ yrs); ~50-60% of Bloom's hot-box need (FY26 AR, as reported) [Rpt]; one hot box = 65 kW; ~16 ASP assemblies per hot box |
| SOEC electrolyser units | Solid-oxide electrolyser modules for hydrogen (Bloom) | Reported sole supplier [Rpt] | |
| Sheet-metal assemblies & enclosures | Cabinets/enclosures for Bloom systems, Unit 6 Adibatla | [Co][Rpt] | |
| Hydel components | Turbine and governor parts for Andritz Hydro, Voith Hydro, GE | Andritz orders ~Rs 40 cr/yr; hydro/other Rs 100-120 cr "next year" (Q3 FY26 call) | |
| Other clean energy | Hitachi Zosen; Fluence (BESS) | Fluence prototype done; project deferred over battery export duties; dropped from list (May-26) | |
| Civil Nuclear (2.7% of FY26; 13.3% of Jun-26 book) | Fuelling-machine heads & assemblies | For NPCIL 700 MWe PHWRs (on-power refuelling); also bridge & column, drive mechanisms, sealing plugs, fuel-handling assemblies | Flagship nuclear product; ~2 fuelling machines and 392 coolant channels per PHWR |
| Coolant channel assemblies | En-masse coolant channel replacement (refurbishment) | NPCIL Rs 126.74 cr PO (26 Aug 2026; execution by 26 May 2028); RAPS-4/MAPS-2 per media | |
| CSRDM / DSRDM | Control & safety rod drive mechanisms for IGCAR/BHAVINI fast breeders | Since 2003; grid plate for 500 MW PFBR (2008) | |
| Calandria / end-shield (new) | Qualified for Mahi Banswara tenders | Content per reactor: Kaiga ~Rs 250 cr; new reactors with end-shield and calandria Rs 350-400 cr (Q3 FY26 call) | |
| Aerospace & Defence (11.8% of FY26) | Space (ISRO) | Vikas, cryogenic and semi-cryogenic engines; electro-pneumatic modules; turbo- and booster-pumps (LPSC, SAC) | Supplier since 1983; first Vikas engine 1989; ISRO EMA opportunity Rs 60-70 cr; SSLV paused |
| Missiles / strategic | Agni base shroud, fin assemblies, pneumatics (DRDO) | Since 1999; defence customer since 1986; HAL, GTRE, ADA 1988; BEL | |
| Military aircraft | LCA Tejas Mk1A actuator assemblies; AMCA structural assembly | LCA Rs 130-150 cr expected (free-issue material, value-add only; still pending); AMCA Rs 4 cr order, one of 8 qualified vendors | |
| Export aerospace | Build-to-print parts and structures for GKN, Thales, Collins, IAI, Rafael, Elbit; Thales Alenia Space load-bearing structure | GKN and Thales in volume; IAI 15-yr pipeline USD 90-120 mn (contract value); IAI FAI Sep-26, volume Oct-26 | |
| Products & Others (15.3% of FY26; 27.8% of Q1 FY27) | Ball screws | Since 1985; indigenous import substitute (2021); Unit 3; ISRO, MNCs, defence | MNC ball-screw contract; export orders growing |
| Roller screws | From 2020; substitute for Rollvis (Sweden) imports | [Co history] | |
| Water-lubricated bearings | Hydro and marine | Proto valves to Indian Navy; qualified for volume in naval programmes | |
| Actuation systems | Electro-mechanical, electro-pneumatic, electro-hydraulic actuators | Aerospace, defence, space | |
| Oil & gas | BOP reconditioning, parts for TechnipFMC, SLB, Kongsberg; whipstocks for Weatherford | Greenfield plant "operational by Oct-26"; Rs 450-500 cr potential over 3-4 yrs; Weatherford USD 35-40 mn | |
| Data-centre infrastructure (SLB) | Sheet-metal components and assemblies, all for export | Rs 35 cr (FY26), Rs 45 cr cumulative; execution by Feb-Mar 2027; "eight times" potential; ~70% value-add; dedicated facility planned |
Products launched in the last 4-5 years are more than 25% of revenue [Rpt]. [Inferred] Products & Others jumped +369% YoY to Rs 100.4 cr in Q1 FY27. Neither ball screws nor first-article O&G/data-centre work explains this, so part of it probably reflects non-hot-box Bloom work (electrolysers, enclosures, ASP assemblies). Composition is not disclosed.
How they make it: processes and inputs
| Capability | Detail |
|---|---|
| Business model | Mostly build-to-print, plus build-to-spec and developed products (screws, actuators); "from mechanical engineering toward integrated systems" |
| Machining | 600+ CNC machines (3- and 5-axis mills, Akira Seiki 3+2, turning centres, heavy VMCs); tolerances ~5-10 microns; Zeiss CMMs |
| Fabrication | Specialised and heavy fabrication (Unit 6 Hangars 2-3), precision sheet metal, welding |
| Brazing / heat treatment | Vacuum brazing (critical for hot-box heat exchangers and rocket engines); heat treatment; induction hardening |
| Surface treatment (NADCAP) | Nitriding; anodising (sulphuric/chromic/hard); passivation; hard chrome; nickel and electroless nickel; cadmium; zinc; chromate conversion; chemical milling; electropolishing; pickling; phosphating; titanium cleaning; dry-film lubricant; painting; powder coat |
| Assembly, integration & test | Class 10,000 clean rooms (28x9 m, 14x7 m) and Class 100,000 area at Unit 2; functional and environmental test labs; electronics/cable harness (Unit 6 Hangar 1) |
| In-house testing | Destructive testing, NDT, chemical lab, all NABL-accredited |
| Workforce | 3,000+; headcount added ahead of expansion weighed on FY26 GM; automation being added for the Bloom ramp |
Facilities
| Unit | Location | Year | Area | What is made | Certs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unit 1 (HO) | 18 Technocrats Industrial Estate, Balanagar 500037 | 1970-71 | n.d. | High-precision machining: nuclear (fuelling machines, drives), aerospace | ISO 9001:2015 |
| Unit 1A | Plot 21, Gagillapur, Dundigal 500043 | n.d. | n.d. | Extension of Unit 1 | - |
| Unit 2 | Sy 149/P, IDA Jagadgirigutta Rd, Gandhinagar | 2002 | 2 clean rooms + Class 100,000 | Space/defence: Vikas, cryogenic and semi-cryogenic engine integration and test | - |
| Unit 3 | Plots 97 & 100A, Co-op Indl Estate, Gandhinagar | 1980 | n.d. | Ball screws; nuclear and aerospace parts | - |
| Unit 3A | Plot 21, Gagillapur | n.d. | n.d. | Extension of Unit 3 | - |
| Unit 4 "Montage" | B-34, EEIE, Balanagar Township | 1975 | n.d. | Rough machining (feeder) | - |
| Unit 5 | 58/C Phase-1, IDA Jeedimetla 500055 | 1978 | n.d. | Heat and surface treatment plant | AS9100D, NADCAP |
| Unit 6 | Samuha Aerospace Park, Adibatla, Ranga Reddy 501510 | ~2019-20 [Est.] | 9 acres; 1,55,000 sq ft; 3 hangars | Clean energy: hot boxes, electrolysers, enclosures; 8,000 → 12,000 → 20,000 → 30,000 units/yr | - |
| Unit 7 | 17/A Phase-III, IDA Pashamylaram, Sangareddy 502307 | Commissioned Jan 2025 | n.d. | Dedicated aerospace (GKN, Thales, IAI) | - |
| Unit 7A | Plot 22, Patancheru, Sangareddy | n.d. | n.d. | Expansion; possibly O&G/data-centre [Inferred] | - |
| Unit 8 Gee Pee (subsidiary) | Plots 75 & 81, Phase III, TSIIC Pashamylaram | Acquired May 2022 | n.d. | Chemical processing / special processes; DT/NDT | NADCAP (2025), AS9100 |
| 100% EOU | Plot 149/P, IDA Balanagar | 2010 | n.d. | Export precision: aerospace, oilfield, energy; NADCAP paint booth | AS9100D |
| New SEZ unit | 15 acres SEZ near Unit 6 (Adibatla) | Announced 2025 | 15 acres | O&G, machining, fabrication; all Bloom work moving to new SEZ plant near airport | - |
| Greenfield O&G | Likely the SEZ site [Inferred] | Target Sep/Oct 2026 | n.d. | Whipstocks and oilfield tools (Weatherford) | - |
| Data-centre facility | Planned | After SLB qualification | n.d. | Data-centre assemblies | - |
Only the fuel-cell line has a disclosed unit capacity. Fuel-cell phasing: Phase 1 commissioned; Phase 2 Sep-Oct 2026; Phase 3 "multi-fold" by ~Mar 2027 (numbers under NDA).
Certifications, IP, ratings and exports
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Quality systems | ISO 9001:2015; AS9100 Rev D (Unit 5, EOU, Gee Pee); NADCAP (Unit 5, EOU paint booth, Gee Pee 2025); NABL labs. No IATF 16949 or ISO 13485. |
| Nuclear/space qualification | NPCIL, BARC, IGCAR/BHAVINI, ISRO (LPSC, SAC): multi-year qualification, a licence-like barrier |
| Patents / IP | No material patent portfolio. IP = process know-how and qualifications. Customer owns designs on build-to-print (incl. Bloom, NPCIL) [Inferred] |
| ESG ratings | CRISIL ESG 63 "Strong" (FY2025-26, 6 Oct 2026); SES ESG "Medium" (7 Jan 2026) |
| Credit | [ICRA]A (Stable)/A1 reaffirmed 13 Oct 2025; upgraded to [ICRA]A+ (Stable)/A1 on 7 Jul 2026; limits Rs 670 cr → Rs 1,470 cr |
| Awards | SIDM Champion Award (2021); accolade for indigenous ball screws (2021) |
| Export footprint | Exports 82% of FY26 (83% Q4 FY26; 81% Q1 FY27); ~72% of FY25 sales were exports to the US (ICRA). A Q4 FY25 results summary put FY25 exports at 64%/36% export/domestic, which conflicts with ICRA's ~72% US share and Bloom's 71.6% FY25 revenue share; unreconciled (the ICRA ~72% is consistent with Bloom's 71.6% share). Israel (IAI, Rafael, Elbit), Europe (GKN, Thales, Collins), oilfield MNCs. |
Segment revenue
| Rs cr | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY26 YoY | FY26 mix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean Energy - Fuel Cells, Hydel & Others | 201.6 | 441.7 | 351.2 | 416.9 | 615.4 | +47.6% | 70.2% |
| Civil Nuclear | 45.7 | 43.8 | 61.9 | 18.4 | 23.6 | +28.3% | 2.7% |
| Aerospace & Defence | 56.4 | 64.5 | 58.7 | 93.2 | 103.8 | +11.4% | 11.8% |
| Products & Others | 18.3 | 23.7 | 108.3 | 147.5 | 134.1 | −9.1% | 15.3% |
| Total | 322.0 | 573.8 | 580.8 | 676.0 | 876.2 | +29.6% | 100% |
FY22-FY24 from company deck charts: FY23 sums to 573.7, FY24 to 580.1. A&D chart % labels (15/9/7%) do not match values (~17/11/10%), so treat the FY22-24 A&D split as ±Rs 1 cr. MNC aerospace exports were only Rs 9-10 cr (FY24) and Rs 45-48 cr (FY25) (MD, Q4 FY25 call); the rest of A&D is space and defence. Segment EBITDA/EBIT is not disclosed.
| Rs cr (quarterly) | Q1 FY26 | Q2+Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 | Q1 FY27 | Q1 FY27 YoY | Q1 FY27 mix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean Energy - Fuel Cells, Hydel & Others | 105.1 | ~293.0 | 217.3 | 220.8 | +110.1% | 61.2% |
| Civil Nuclear | 5.4 | ~11.2 | 7.0 | 3.2 | −40.7% | 0.9% |
| Aerospace & Defence | 24.8 | ~47.6 | 31.4 | 36.4 | +46.8% | 10.1% |
| Products & Others | 21.4 | ~62.3 | 50.4 | 100.4 | +369.2% | 27.8% |
| Total | 156.6 | 414.2 | 306.1 | 360.7 | +130.4% | 100% |
Q1 FY27 from Arihant Q1 FY27 note (Rs mn 2,208/32/364/1,004). Q1 and Q4 FY26 back-calculated from reported YoY/QoQ % [Derived], reconciling to reported totals. Management cited 9M FY26 fuel-cell revenue of ~Rs 387 cr against ~Rs 398 cr derived for the whole segment (~Rs 11 cr gap = hydel/other, rounding).
Fastest grower
Products & Others (+369% YoY in Q1 FY27, ~28% of revenue). Fuel cells +47.6% in FY26 and +110% in Q1 FY27. A&D accelerating (+46.8% in Q1 FY27; guided to double in FY27).
Under pressure
Civil nuclear: Rs 23.6 cr in FY26 (2.7%; historically ~20-30% share), Rs 3.2 cr in Q1 FY27 (−40.7%). The book is strong (Kaiga Rs 504 cr, refurbishment Rs 126.74 cr) but large-order execution only starts in H2 FY27.
Order book
| Rs cr | 31 Mar 2026 | % | 30 Jun 2026 | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean Energy - Fuel Cell, Hydel & Others | ~1,322 | 51.2% | ~3,431 | 66.7% |
| Civil Nuclear | ~679 | 26.3% | ~684 | 13.3% |
| Aerospace & Defence | ~361 | 14.0% | ~381 | 7.4% |
| Products & Others | ~219 | 8.5% | ~648 | 12.6% |
| Total | 2,581.9 | 5,143.3 |
| Date | Order | Value | Execution / note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2025 | Bloom Energy Corp (named), fuel cells | Rs 386.06 cr (USD 43.87 mn) | Rs 204.86 cr by Mar-26; Rs 181.20 cr by Jun-26 |
| H2 CY2025 | Overseas customer | USD 29.95 mn | [Rpt] |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Megha Engineering & Infrastructures (MEIL), Kaiga 5&6 end fittings | Rs 194 cr | By Apr 2028; booked Q3 FY26 |
| 18 Dec 2025 | MEIL, Kaiga 5&6 various equipment | Rs 310 cr | Staggered to Feb 2030; booked Q3 FY26 |
| ~Apr-May 2026 | SLB data-centre first articles | Rs 35 cr → Rs 45 cr cum. | Export; by Feb-Mar 2027 |
| 14 May 2026 | Blanket POs, unnamed existing international customer | USD 238.76 mn (Rs 2,278.96 cr @ 95.50) | Execution timing undecided; forums cite 6-8 months from CY27 |
| 22 May 2026 | Existing international customer | ~Rs 467 cr (USD 48.68 mn) | 50% by 20 Mar 2027, rest by 20 Jun 2027 |
| 30 Jul 2026 | Amendment of 14 May blanket PO | +USD 85.86 mn (~Rs 819.94 cr); total USD 324.62 mn (~Rs 3,100.09 cr) | "To be decided later"; MD: "next year". Not nuclear. |
| 26 Aug 2026 | NPCIL coolant channel assemblies (refurbishment) | Rs 126.74 cr | By 26 May 2028 |
Order inflow: FY25 Rs 720 cr; FY26 Rs 2,453.3 cr (Q3 FY26 ~Rs 645 cr in fuel cells alone; Q4 Rs 481.6 cr); Q1 FY27 Rs 2,895.1 cr. FY27 guidance included ~Rs 4,000 cr clean-energy inflow. [Inferred] If the ~Rs 3,100 cr blanket PO is Bloom, Bloom-linked work is roughly 60%+ of the Jun-26 book.
Supply chain — ↑ Upstream: what MTAR depends on
| Dimension | Finding |
|---|---|
| Key materials (AR FY26 MD&A) | Inconel, aluminium, titanium, 17-4 PH, SS 410, 13-8 Mo, mostly imported from "authorized international suppliers". Also [Inferred] stainless and nickel alloys for hot boxes, ceramics/insulation, maraging steel, nuclear-grade stainless and zirconium-interface parts, bearing steels, brazing alloys, fasteners, electronics. |
| Fuel-cell procurement | Most raw materials from customer-directed sources, prices contracted a year ahead, increases passed through. Bloom uses a pass-through cost model (Q2 FY26 call). |
| Free-issue material | Some defence projects (e.g., LCA Mk1A actuators) and nuclear/space jobs use customer-issued material. |
| Named suppliers | None disclosed (AR FY26 checked). Call mentions: a US plasma-coating vendor (outsourced; being in-sourced) and Rollvis (Sweden), the import MTAR substitutes. |
| Contracts | No formal long-term contracts with most suppliers. MSME direct sourcing 31.37% of inputs (FY25: 20.55%) per BRSR. |
| Import / country dependence | Aerospace and nickel alloys largely imported (Europe, US, Japan) or customer-nominated; imports 30-35% of cost mix (Q4 FY26 call). ICRA credits indigenisation for Bloom cost-competitiveness. |
| Single-source risks | (a) Special processes in-house (NADCAP/AS9100), which lowers risk; (b) few approved specialty-alloy mills, so lead-time risk; (c) capacity ramp depends on imported CNCs and CMMs (Akira Seiki Taiwan, Zeiss Germany). |
| Cost structure FY26 | Net materials Rs 458.4 cr (52.3%; materials 503.5 less inventory build 45.1); employee Rs 150.9 cr (17.2%); other expenses Rs 95.7 cr (10.9%); Q4 FY26 materials Rs 165.0 cr (Q4 FY25 Rs 95.7 cr). |
| Pass-through | Partial and lagged on non-material costs: FY26 GM −170 bps on consumables, freight and headcount. |
| Supplier credit | Rs 74.5 cr interest-bearing supplier credit (6.73-9.15%) at Mar-26 (FY25 Rs 16.3 cr); import suppliers give 30-120 days (ICRA). |
Supply chain — ↓ Downstream: who depends on MTAR
| End market | Customers | End products containing MTAR output | Tenor / stickiness |
|---|---|---|---|
| Distributed power / AI data centres; hydrogen | Bloom Energy (to Oracle, AEP, Equinix, data-centre developers) | Bloom Energy Servers, Bloom electrolysers | Blanket/annual POs with multi-year forecasts; 14+ yrs; Taiwanese second source exists |
| Indian nuclear power | NPCIL, MEIL (EPC), BARC, IGCAR, BHAVINI, NFC, DAE, ECIL | 700 MWe PHWRs (Kaiga 5&6, RAPP, Gorakhpur, Mahi Banswara), refurbishments, PFBR | Kaiga 1-3.5 yrs; refurbishment ~2 yrs; years-long qualification |
| Indian space | ISRO (LPSC, SAC) | GSLV, PSLV, LVM3 engines (Vikas, CE-20) | Programme-linked POs; since 1983 |
| Indian defence | DRDO, ADA/HAL, BEL | Agni missiles, LCA Mk1A actuators, AMCA structures | Programme-linked |
| Global aerospace | GKN, Thales, Collins, IAI, Rafael, Elbit, Thales Alenia | Aircraft, militaries, satellites | LTAs; IAI 15-yr pipeline |
| Oilfield services | SLB, Weatherford, TechnipFMC, Kongsberg | Whipstocks, BOPs; data-centre infrastructure (SLB) | Weatherford LTA (forums cite 10-yr, ~Rs 90 cr/yr from FY27, unverified) |
| Hydro OEMs / others | Andritz, Voith, GE; Tata, Hitachi Zosen, Fluence | Hydro turbines; storage | Repeat |
| Customer concentration | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloom Energy share of revenue | 61% | 64% | ~50% (9M) | >75% (ICRA) | 70.2% | 71.6% | 72.3% |
| Bloom revenue (Rs cr, AR note 40(c)) | - | - | - | - | 407.6 | 483.7 | 633.4 |
Concentration: the hard numbers
Top-1 = Rs 633.4 cr = 72.3% of FY26 revenue from operations (73.2% of revenue from contracts, Rs 865.4 cr). This exceeds the whole fuel-cell segment (Rs 615.4 cr), so Bloom also buys products-segment items. Every other customer is below 10%. Top-5/top-10 are not disclosed; [Est.] top-5 is ~85-90%. The earlier "~55-60% by Q1 FY27" media figure is unsupported, and no quarterly customer split is published.
Value chain and where pricing power sits
RAW INPUTS MTAR (Hyderabad, 9 units) CUSTOMER / OEM END-USER
Stainless & Ni alloys, --> CNC machining (600+), vacuum brazing, --> Bloom Energy (hot boxes, SOEC) --> Data centres (Oracle...), utilities, H2
maraging/Ti/Al, forgings, heavy & sheet fab, NADCAP heat/surface --> NPCIL / MEIL / IGCAR / BARC --> Indian nuclear grid
insulation, bearings, treatment, clean-room assembly & test--> ISRO (LPSC, SAC) --> Launch vehicles / satellites
electronics, imported CNCs Products: ball/roller screws, --> DRDO / HAL / ADA / BEL --> Armed forces
(mills, importers, actuators, water-lubricated bearings --> GKN, Thales, Collins, IAI... --> Airlines, militaries, space
customer-directed) --> SLB, Weatherford, TechnipFMC --> O&G operators, data centres
--> Andritz, Voith, GE --> Hydro utilities
Pricing power [Analyst View]
Pricing power sits with the OEMs (Bloom, NPCIL, ISRO, aero primes), who own the designs. MTAR's leverage comes from qualification scarcity and switching costs, not IP. It is moderate in nuclear/space/defence (few vendors, cost-plus or tender, high GM). It is weakest in Bloom hot boxes (one of two sources, volume pricing, lower GM), though stronger while Bloom is capacity-constrained and in electrolysers (sole source). The improved Q1 FY27 commercial terms (WC 59 days via advances) suggest bargaining power rose as the book swelled to ~6x FY26 revenue.
Disclosure gaps: not disclosed are segment EBITDA, named suppliers, top-5/10 %, patent count and non-fuel-cell capacity. Upcoming: Q2 FY27 results (Oct-Nov 2026), Phase 2 capacity (Sep-Oct 2026), O&G plant, NCLT merger order.
Industry
Four end-markets: SOFC on-site power for AI data centres, Indian civil nuclear, space, and defence/aerospace, plus O&G and data-centre hardware. Market position, policy, Porter's five forces and moat.
Industry-size figures are government/industry targets as widely reported; not independently re-verified for this report.
Where MTAR sits in each market
| Market | MTAR position | Rank / competitors | Key data |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bloom SOFC hot boxes | Key strategic outsourced supplier of hot-box and power-module assemblies; "majority" wallet share (no % given; NDA) | Taiwanese second supplier; Bloom in-house (Newark DE, Fremont); possible Mexico/Asia second sources | 72.3% of FY26 revenue; capacity 8,000 → ~30,000 units |
| Indian PHWR nuclear | One of a handful of NPCIL-qualified private suppliers (~40 yrs) for fuelling-machine heads, coolant channels, drives, refurbishment | Top 2-3 private, with Godrej Enterprises (Precision & Aerospace), L&T Heavy Engineering, Walchandnagar; no share data | Book ~Rs 684 cr (Jun-26) + ~Rs 130 cr expected (incl. L1) = ~Rs 815 cr; Rs 126.74 cr NPCIL Aug-26 |
| ISRO / space | 30+ yr supplier of Vikas, cryogenic subsystems, turbopumps, electro-pneumatic modules | Godrej Aerospace, Walchandnagar, HAL, L&T, Ananth Technologies | Domestic space opportunity >Rs 250 cr (mgmt) |
| Defence / aerospace | Niche in actuators, screws, assemblies; exports to global and Israeli OEMs | Smaller than Azad, Aequs, Dynamatic, Tata Advanced Systems in aerostructures/engine parts | A&D Rs 103.8 cr FY26; double in FY27; Rs 600-700 cr ~FY30; Tejas actuators ~Rs 140-150 cr |
| Products | Ball/roller screws, actuators, WLB | Import substitution (Rollvis etc.) | ~Rs 100 cr run-rate (Q1 call); target >Rs 1,000 cr ~FY30 |
| Oil & gas | Greenfield facility for Weatherford and others | Azad, Unimech, Aequs, Bharat Forge court US energy OEMs | Rs 450-500 cr over 3-4 yrs |
| AI data-centre hardware | SLB first-article orders | Azad (Baker Hughes), Unimech | Rs 35 cr (Q4 FY26), Rs 45 cr order by Feb-Mar 2027; ~8x potential |
Clean energy: SOFC / on-site power for AI data centres
| Bloom Energy (US) | Revenue | YoY | Guidance at the time |
|---|---|---|---|
| CY2025 | USD 2.02 bn | - | - |
| Q1 CY26 | USD 751 mn | +130% | CY26 raised to USD 3.4-3.8 bn (from 3.1-3.3 bn) |
| Q2 CY26 (Jul 2026) | USD 1.07 bn | +165% | CY26 raised again to USD 3.9-4.2 bn |
| Backlog | ~USD 20 bn | - | Product backlog approaching ~USD 6 bn |
| Installed base (2025) | ~1.4 GW | - | 1,000+ sites, 9 countries |
| Bloom demand / event | Detail | MTAR tape |
|---|---|---|
| Oracle partnership (Apr 2026) | Up to 2.8 GW (from 1.2 GW), incl. Project Jupiter 2.45 GW, New Mexico | +10% on the day (15 Apr 2026) |
| AEP | Up to 1 GW; USD 2.65 bn agreement (Q3 FY26 call) | - |
| Others | Equinix >100 MW; Quanta; SK Eternix (Korea); Brookfield USD 5 bn AI-infrastructure deal (Oct 2025) | - |
| Crusoe "Project Jade", Cheyenne, Wyoming (1.8 GW) | Paused 11 Jun 2026 per Bloomberg; later reported continuing / early-2028 start | −10% intraday to Rs 6,389 (~−15% over 2 sessions); +12% on 12 Jun after denial |
| Oracle-linked project regulatory delay (Jul 2026) | Bloom −38% to −46% in a month (sources vary by window) | Lower circuit in 6 of 7 sessions; Rs 5,457 on 21 Jul (−35% in a month) |
| Bloom S&P 500 inclusion (announced early Sep 2026) | Index event | 5% upper circuit to Rs 7,519 on 7 Sep 2026 |
| Oracle force-majeure notice on Project Jupiter (24 Sep 2026) | Oracle served a force-majeure notice on the developer of Project Jupiter, Doña Ana County, New Mexico (STACK Infrastructure/Blue Owl; capacity for OpenAI), allowing it to defer rent if the 2028 opening slips. Cited issues: the gas pipeline's in-service date has moved from Aug 2026 to Feb 2027, and the fuel-cell air-quality permit is still pending. On 25 Sep Oracle said the project "remains on our planned schedule"; Bloom said Oracle remains committed to the 2.4 GW fuel-cell contract and that it expects to deliver on Oracle's timeline. Bloom fell ~6% on 24 Sep, then rose ~8% on 25 Sep and ~11% on 29 Sep (US sessions). | −3.2% (24 Sep) and −2.1% (25 Sep, ~2.5x normal volume); then 5% upper circuits on 29 Sep (Rs 7,426, ~3.5 lakh shares) and 30 Sep (locked at Rs 7,797) [Inferred: tracking Bloom's rebound; no MTAR filing] |
| Bloom Fremont expansion (reported 6 Oct 2026) | Bought a ~158,000 sq ft building in Fremont, California, roughly the size of its existing ~164,000 sq ft plant; no capacity figure given. Barclays raised its BE target to USD 308 (Equal Weight) and TD Cowen upgraded to Hold (6 Oct). Bloom Q3 CY26 results expected ~27 Oct. | Flat to +2% (6-8 Oct) |
- Drivers: AI-led power scarcity, and grid interconnection queues of 3-7 years that push behind-the-meter generation.
- Competing technologies: gas turbines and aeroderivatives (GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi; multi-year slot shortages); reciprocating engines (Caterpillar, Wärtsilä, Cummins); other fuel cells (FuelCell Energy, Ceres licensees Doosan/Delta/Shell, Doosan PAFC); SMRs in the 2030s.
- Policy and trade: US fuel-cell ITC under 48E (as amended by 2025 OBBBA) still supports Bloom. US tariffs on Indian goods (reciprocal/IEEPA 2025, later legal challenges and replacement tariffs in 2026) are a moving target; check the current rate. ~72% of MTAR's FY25 sales were exports to the US (ICRA). MD (Q2 FY26): MTAR's BoM is "hardly less than single-digit percentage" of Bloom's total; tariffs are passed through.
- Hydel: CEA target of ~50+ GW pumped storage by 2032, a small steady line.
Civil nuclear (India)
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Installed capacity | ~8.8 GW, 24-25 reactors |
| Targets | 22.5 GW by ~2031-32; 100 GW by 2047 |
| Fleet-mode programme (2017, ~Rs 1.05 lakh cr) | 10 x 700 MWe PHWRs: Kaiga 5&6; Gorakhpur (GHAVP) 3&4; Mahi Banswara 1-4 (foundation Sep 2025); Chutka 1&2 |
| MTAR content | ~2 fuelling machines, 392 coolant channels per PHWR. Kaiga ~Rs 250 cr per reactor; new reactors Rs 350-400 cr (Q3 FY26 call). MOSL: Rs 110-190 cr per reactor, ~15 nuclear-island products, ~Rs 19,500 cr cumulative opportunity. |
| Refurbishment | En-masse coolant channel replacement on five reactors; Rs 200 cr+ opportunity; Rs 130-140 cr expected in Q2 FY27 |
| Nuclear Energy Mission (Budget 2025-26) | Rs 20,000 cr for SMRs; ≥5 indigenous SMRs by 2033; Bharat Small Reactors (220 MWe PHWR variant) with private participation |
| SHANTI Act (Dec 2025) | Opens nuclear to private/JV operators; reforms CLNDA supplier liability. Positive for supplier volumes; competitive negative as Tata, Reliance, Adani, NTPC-JVs, L&T and foreign vendors enter |
| Timing | Nuclear execution ramps H2 FY27. NPCIL ordering is lumpy and deferral-prone; ~Rs 250 cr of nuclear orders deferred out of FY26. Management "cannot assure timing" of tenders. |
Space, defence and aerospace
| Market | Size / target | Policy / programmes |
|---|---|---|
| Space | ~USD 8.4 bn (2022); IN-SPACe target ~USD 44 bn by 2033 incl. ~USD 11 bn exports | FDI liberalised Feb 2024 (100% automatic for satellite components; 49% for launch vehicles); Gaganyaan; NGLV; Bharatiya Antariksh Station; SSLV tech transfer to HAL (2025). New-space players Skyroot, Agnikul are integrating vertically. |
| Defence production | ~Rs 1.51 lakh cr (FY25); target Rs 3 lakh cr by 2029 | DAP 2020 Buy-Indian-IDDM; 5 Positive Indigenisation Lists + 5 DPSU lists; UP and TN corridors; iDEX; 75% of capital procurement reserved for domestic |
| Defence exports | ~Rs 23,600 cr (FY25); target Rs 50,000 cr by 2029 | No PLI applies directly to MTAR products. Tejas Mk1A: 83 + 97 aircraft ordered from HAL |
| Global aerospace | Airbus/Boeing backlog ~15,000 aircraft | OEM supply-chain diversification (China+1) favours Indian precision suppliers |
Key trends
- AI power demand drives on-site generation.
- India's nuclear opening and SMR push.
- Defence indigenisation and exports.
- Global OEM de-risking toward India.
- A capex supercycle among Indian precision engineers, which could compress pricing by FY28-30.
- Listed peers at 100-300x P/E, so the sector is priced for perfection.
Barriers, Porter's five forces and moat
Barriers to entry: high. Qualification takes 2-5 years (NPCIL/AERB, ISRO/VSSC/LPSC, CEMILAC/DGAQA, AS9100, NADCAP, Bloom FAI/PPAP). The work involves micron tolerances, special materials (Inconel, Zr-Nb, maraging, Ti), clean rooms, brazing/welding certifications and decades of track record. Barriers are highest in nuclear and space and lowest in O&G and data-centre machined parts. Capex intensity is moderate (~Rs 500 cr FY27-28, ~70% clean energy).
| Force | Intensity | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Threat of new entrants | Low-Medium | Low in nuclear/space. Medium in fuel cell/O&G/data centre, where Bloom or SLB can qualify vendors in ~12-24 months. Rising after SHANTI. |
| Supplier power | Medium | Limited specialty-alloy mills, often imported; GM 49.4% (FY25) → 47.7% (FY26) → 45.6% (Q1 FY27) |
| Buyer power | High | Bloom = 72.3% of revenue; NPCIL/ISRO monopsony buyers with L1/negotiated pricing; build-to-print, customer-driven cost-downs |
| Threat of substitutes | Medium | Turbines, recip engines, grid, SMRs, other fuel cells; Bloom in-sourcing/second-sourcing is the key one |
| Rivalry | Medium | Fragmented niches; no single peer across all segments; intensifying as Azad, PTC, Unimech, Aequs add capacity |
| Moat by vertical | Rating | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Nuclear & space | Durable 7-8/10 | Multi-decade qualification, small vendor pool. Risk: government pricing caps; SHANTI entrants over 5-10 yrs |
| Bloom hot boxes | Moderate 5-6/10 | 10+ yr relationship, co-developed processes, dedicated capacity on a multi-year forecast. But the moat is customer-granted; Bloom owns the IP and can dual-source. FY24 destocking: growth ~1%, OPM 27% → 19%. |
| Defence & products | Early-stage | Import substitutes with indigenisation tailwinds; scale small (~Rs 100-135 cr) |
Pricing power: limited [Analyst View]
Suppliers are fragmented and buyers concentrated (Bloom, NPCIL, ISRO, HAL/DPSUs), which structurally favours buyers. The Q1 FY27 EBITDA of 23.6% is operating leverage on volume, not price: gross margin fell YoY (45.6% vs 54.2%). Pricing power is best in nuclear spares/refurbishment, first-of-kind indigenised products and export defence.
Financials
Consolidated, Rs cr, FY = April-March. Consolidated ≈ standalone (subsidiaries immaterial; standalone FY26 PAT Rs 95.32 cr vs consolidated Rs 94.03 cr). EBITDA excludes other income; EBIT = PBT + finance cost.
Key takeaways [Analyst View]
- Growth inflection: TTM (Q2 FY26-Q1 FY27) revenue Rs 1,080 cr (+53%). FY27 guide of ~80% ±5% at 24% ±100 bps implies FY27E revenue ~Rs 1,533-1,621 cr and EBITDA ~Rs 353-405 cr.
- Five-year record is mixed: EBITDA margin 29-34% (FY21-22) fell to 17.9% (FY25), recovering to 19.5% (FY26) and 23.6% (Q1 FY27). 3-yr PAT CAGR is negative (Rs 103.4 cr FY23 vs Rs 94.0 cr FY26).
- Cash conversion only recently positive: cumulative FCF FY22-26 −Rs 194.3 cr; FY26 FCF +Rs 63.3 cr on advance-funded OCF.
- Leverage rising but moderate: borrowings Rs 369.2 cr (AR note 17) at Mar-26, D/E ~0.45x; Rs 423.6 cr gross at Jun-26.
- No equity dilution since IPO: 3.076 cr shares since Mar 2021; no dividend since FY22.
Five-year P&L
| Rs cr | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | TTM Jun-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue from operations | 246 | 322 | 574 | 581 | 676.0 | 876.2 | 1,080 |
| YoY growth | 15% | 31% | 78% | 1% | 16.4% | 29.6% | 53% |
| Gross profit (co. definition) | n.a. | 205.8 | 304.2 | 278.4 | 334.1 | 417.8 | Q1: 164.2 |
| Gross margin | ~67-68% (mgmt) | 63.9% | 53.0% | 47.9% | 49.4% | 47.7% | Q1: 45.6% |
| EBITDA | 83 | 94 | 154 | 113 | 120.9 | 171.2 | 228 |
| EBITDA margin | 34% | 29.2% | 26.8% | 19.4% | 17.9% | 19.5% | 21.1% |
| Other income | 1 | 9 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 23.1 | 27 |
| Depreciation | 13 | 14 | 19 | 23 | 32 | 35.0 | 36 |
| EBIT | 72 | 89 | 155 | 95 | 94 | 155 | 218 |
| EBIT margin | 29% | 27.6% | 27.0% | 16.4% | 13.9% | 17.7% | 20.2% |
| Finance cost | 7 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 22 | 29.4 | 39 |
| PBT | 65 | 82 | 140 | 73 | 71.6 | 126.1 | 179 |
| PBT margin | 26% | 25.5% | 24.4% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 14.4% | 16.6% |
| Tax rate | 29% | 26% | 26% | 23% | 26% | 25% | ~25% |
| PAT | 46 | 60.9 | 103.4 | 56.1 | 52.9 | 94.0 | 133 |
| PAT margin | 18.7% | 18.9% | 18.0% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 12.3% |
| EPS (Rs) | 14.98 | 19.79 | 33.62 | 18.24 | 17.19 | 30.57 | 43.39 |
| Dividend payout | 40% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
Sources: Screener; company deck annexures (GP FY22-FY26); DSIJ/Multibagg. Reconciliations: FY25 PAT Rs 52.9 cr (deck, Q4 FY25 call, ICRA) vs Screener/CFO Rs 53.4 cr; FY25 PBT Rs 71.6 cr (deck) vs Screener 72.1; FY26 other income Rs 23.1 cr (deck) vs Screener 19 (mgmt: ~Rs 25 cr, mainly forex gains). StockAnalysis shows GM ~1-1.5 pts lower on a different cost definition (FY24 46.7%, FY25 47.9%, FY26 46.6%). FY26 standalone check: revenue 876.11, materials 503.43, inventory change −44.76, GM 47.65%. FY26 cost lines: materials 503.5; inventory change −45.1; employee 150.9; other exp. 95.7; D&A 35.0; finance 29.4; tax 32.1. Screener CAGRs: sales 5Y 29%, 3Y 15%; PAT 5Y 16%, 3Y ~−2%; ROE 5Y 11%, 3Y ~9-10%.
| Margin / earnings-quality flag | Detail |
|---|---|
| FY24-25 compression | EBITDA margin −~1,000 bps FY22→FY24. CRISIL tied FY23 to lower GM, mix and employee cost. FY24 was flat revenue (Bloom deferral) on a larger fixed base (depreciation 14→23, finance 7→22). |
| FY26 gross margin | −170 bps (49.4% → 47.7%). Q4 FY26 GM 44.2% vs 52.3% Q4 FY25 (mix, materials). EBITDA expansion comes from operating leverage. |
| One-offs FY26 | Exceptional Rs 3.77 cr Labour-Codes employee-benefit provision (Q3 FY26). |
| Other income dependence | Q4 FY26 other income ~Rs 16.4 cr (incl. treasury income on ~Rs 215 cr investments). Ex-OI, Q4 PBT ~Rs 43 cr vs Rs 59.5 cr. ~18% of FY26 PBT came from other income (23.1 / 126.1; ~15% on Screener's Rs 19 cr). |
| Guidance track FY26 | Guided ~25% growth, ~21% margin (May-25); actual 29.6% (beat), 19.5% (miss by ~150 bps). |
| Growth composition | Entirely organic (only acquisition: Gee Pee, Rs 8.82 cr, 2022). Volume-led (hot-box units); price not disclosed (NDA). |
Last 8 quarters
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | QoQ | EBITDA | Margin | EBITDA YoY | PAT | PAT YoY | PAT QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 (Sep-24) | 190 | +13.8% | +48.4% | 37 | 19.5% | +3% | 18.8 | −8% | +327% |
| Q3 FY25 (Dec-24) | 174 | +47.5% | −8.4% | 33 | 19.0% | +38% | 16.0 | +52% | −15% |
| Q4 FY25 (Mar-25) | 183.1 | +28.0% | +5.2% | 34.2 | 18.7% | +90% | 13.7 | +180% | −14% |
| Q1 FY26 (Jun-25) | 156.6 | +22.1%† | −14.5% | 28.4 | 18.1% | +71%† | 10.8 | +144%† | −21% |
| Q2 FY26 (Sep-25) | 136.2* | −28.4% | −13.2% | ~17 | ~12.5% | −54% | ~4.2 | −78% | −61% |
| Q3 FY26 (Dec-25) | 278.0 | +59.8% | +104% | ~64 | 23.0% | +94% | 34.7 | +117% | +726% |
| Q4 FY26 (Mar-26) | 306.1 | +67.2% | +10.1% | 61.8 | 20.2% | +80.9% | 44.3 | +222% | +27.7% |
| Q1 FY27 (Jun-26) | 360.7 | +130.4% | +17.9% | 85.1 | 23.6% | +199.7% | 50.2 | +364.5% | +13.4% |
*Discrepancy: Q2 FY26 revenue Rs 136.2 cr (Screener) vs Rs 135.6 cr (CFO, filed Q2 transcript). Q2/Q3 FY26 EBITDA ±Rs 1 cr. Base quarters for YoY: Q2 FY24 167/36/20.5; Q3 FY24 118/24/10.5; Q4 FY24 143/18/4.9; Q1 FY25 128/17/4.4. †Q1 FY26 growth rates are company-reported (unrounded Q1 FY25 base), matching the Concall tab; on the rounded 128/17/4.4 base they compute to +22.3% / +67% / +145%. Some aggregators show Q1 FY27 margin as 23.86% (different definition); CFO cited 23.54%.
| Q1 FY27 detail | Rs cr |
|---|---|
| Total income | 368.59 |
| Sale of products / other operating revenue | 355.89 / 4.82 |
| Other income | ~7.9 |
| Gross profit (45.6%; company 45.61%) | 164.2 |
| Finance cost (Q4 FY26 ~10; Q1 FY26 ~6, so 2.7x YoY) | ~16 (15.8) |
| Depreciation | ~10 |
| PBT (+355% YoY) | 67.4 |
| PAT (13.9% margin; standalone 50.5) | 50.2 |
| EPS (Rs) | 16.33 |
| Subsidiaries (revenue / net loss in quarter) | 1.68 / −0.72 |
Unaudited cash-flow claim (discrepancy)
CFO on the filed Q1 FY27 transcript: "cash flow from operations is at INR247.69 crores in this quarter as against INR191.66 crores in the last year." The comparator equals FY26 standalone full-year OCF (Rs 191.66 cr, NSE integrated filing), not Q1 FY26. No Q1 cash-flow statement is filed (not required under LODR), so treat Rs 247.69 cr as unaudited. Consolidated FY26 OCF was Rs 196.9 cr.
Five-year balance sheet (31 March)
| Rs cr | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net fixed assets | 196 | 291 | 341 | 439 | 514 |
| CWIP | 44 | 64 | 73 | 53 | 34 |
| Goodwill | Not separately reported (immaterial; Gee Pee ~Rs 6.5 cr cash outlay FY23) | ||||
| Other intangibles | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Inventory | 170.3 | 386.6 | 347.6 | 346.1 | 500.5 |
| Trade receivables | 136.2 | 208.4 | 146.6 | 209.8 | 336.8 |
| Cash and bank | 59.6 | 12.2 | 30.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Liquid investments | 69.7 | 46.5 | 0 | 0.4 | 217.5 |
| Total cash + liquid investments | 129.3 | 58.7 | 30.7 | 2.3 | 218.5 |
| Trade payables | 57.0 | 218.2 | 62.4 | 106.1 | 149.9 |
| Borrowings (Screener) | 96 | 143 | 191 | 177 | 377 |
| Borrowings (AR FY26 note 17) | - | - | - | - | 369.2 |
| Total debt incl. leases and supplier credit (StockAnalysis) | 95.9 | 143.4 | 190.9 | 193.6 | 451.1 |
| · short-term / WC debt | 47.2 | 38.3 | 48.4 | 66.6 | 251.7 |
| · current maturities of LTD | 22.8 | 27.4 | 45.5 | 46.0 | 44.3 |
| · long-term debt | 25.9 | 77.7 | 97.0 | 81.0 | 147.7 |
| Net worth (equity Rs 30.76 cr + reserves) | 520 | 620 | 677 | 729 | 823 |
| Book value per share (Rs) | 169.0 | 201.6 | 219.9 | 237.0 | 267.4 |
| Total assets | 728 | 1,063 | 1,008 | 1,130 | 1,743 |
| Current assets / current liabilities | 463 / 165 | 697 / 342 | 565 / 208 | 618 / 290 | 1,128 / 727 |
| Net debt (Screener borrowings − cash & inv.) | −33 | 84 | 160 | 175 | ~159 |
FY26 debt reconciliation (AR notes 17/17A) [Fact]
Borrowings Rs 369.2 cr: term loans Rs 192.0 cr (LT 147.7 + current maturities 44.3) plus cash credit / USD export packing credit Rs 177.2 cr, all secured. Add interest-bearing supplier credit Rs 74.5 cr (in other financial liabilities; FY25 Rs 16.3 cr) and leases ~Rs 7.3 cr = ~Rs 451 cr debt-like. Screener shows Rs 377 cr. Company D/E 0.45x; ICRA gearing 0.46x. Standalone: non-current borrowings Rs 147.66 cr, current Rs 221.56 cr, equity Rs 825.68 cr. Net debt FY26 ~Rs 151-233 cr depending on definition. Jun-26 balance sheet not filed (half-yearly under LODR). Call figures only: gross debt Rs 423.6 cr (30 Jun), investments Rs 379 cr ("as of July end", a different date), net debt "INR20-30 crores".
- Other liabilities rose Rs 224 → 544 cr in FY26. Of current liabilities of Rs 727 cr, ~Rs 281 cr is neither debt nor payables: mostly customer advances / contract liabilities. These can reverse as orders execute.
- Inventory +45% to Rs 500 cr and receivables +61% to Rs 337 cr, both faster than revenue (+30%). Short-term debt ~3.8x (Rs 67 → 252 cr), into WC and partly ~Rs 215 cr treasury investments.
- Net worth CAGR FY22-26 ~12%, entirely retained earnings.
Five-year cash flow and PAT-to-OCF reconciliation
| Rs cr | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | 5-yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAT | 60.9 | 103.4 | 56.1 | 52.9 | 94.0 | 367.3 |
| D&A | 13.8 | 18.0 | 22.6 | 31.5 | 33.7 | 119.6 |
| Change in receivables | −57.3 | −71.2 | +61.1 | −63.1 | −116.7 | −247.2 |
| Change in inventory | −67.8 | −216.2 | +38.9 | +1.6 | −154.5 | −398.0 |
| Change in payables | +22.6 | +160.4 | −155.8 | +43.8 | +42.1 | +113.1 |
| Operating cash flow | −29.8 | 7.4 | 57.4 | 101.3 | 196.9 | 333.2 |
| OCF / PAT | −49% | 7% | 102% | 192% | 209% | 91% |
| OCF / EBITDA (Screener) | −12% | 26% | 70% | 95% | 130% | - |
| Capex | −91.1 | −108.4 | −94.2 | −100.3 | −133.6 | −527.6 |
| Free cash flow | −120.9 | −101.0 | −36.8 | +0.9 | +63.3 | −194.3 |
| Investments in securities | −57.5 | +26.0 | +29.8 | 0 | −215.0 | - |
| Acquisitions | - | −6.45 | - | - | - | - |
| Debt raised / repaid | 83.9 / −5.0 | 73.1 / −27.4 | 77.8 / −30.3 | 30.9 / −44.6 | 237.1 / −53.4 | 502.8 / −160.7 |
| Dividends paid | −18.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −18.5 |
| CFI / CFF (Screener) | −145 / 54 | −87 / 32 | −56 / 25 | −103 / −36 | −353 / 155 | - |
| FCF yield on Rs 23,563 cr mcap | n.m. | n.m. | n.m. | ~0.0% | ~0.27% | - |
PAT vs OCF divergences (flagged)
- FY22-23 (since resolved): PAT Rs 164 cr vs OCF −Rs 22 cr; ~Rs 284 cr absorbed by inventory ahead of Bloom/nuclear orders. CRISIL (Jun 2023) flagged negative cash conversion and GCA of 433 days. FY23 OCF was rescued by a Rs 160 cr payables stretch (payable days 296), which reversed in FY24 (−Rs 156 cr).
- FY24: OCF ≈ PAT only because inventory and receivables released Rs 100 cr.
- FY25-26: FY26 OCF ~2.1x PAT despite inventory (−155) and receivables (−117), funded by payables (+42) and ~+Rs 320 cr of advances/other liabilities. Advance-funded OCF is lumpy and reverses on execution.
- Through the cycle: OCF/PAT 91%, but FCF −Rs 194 cr, funded by ~Rs 342 cr net new debt and IPO cash.
- Forward: Rs 500 cr capex over FY27-28 is ~2x the FY26 run-rate, so FCF likely stays thin or negative unless advances persist. Analyst View
Working capital
| Days | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | Q1 FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debtor days (on revenue) | 154 | 133 | 92 | 113 | 140 | 82 (deck) |
| Inventory days (on COGS, Screener) | 535 | 524 | 420 | 369 | 399 | - |
| Inventory days (on revenue) | 193 | 246 | 218 | 187 | 208 | 145 (deck) |
| Creditor days (on COGS) | 179 | 296 | 75 | 113 | 119 | - |
| Cash conversion cycle (gross) | 510 | 361 | 436 | 369 | 419 | - |
| WC days (Screener, net of other liabilities) | 191 | 189 | 192 | 168 | 69 | - |
| Company-reported WC days | - | - | - | 229 | 172 | 59 |
| NWC / operating income (ICRA) | 75% | ~63% | - | 62% | 44% | - |
Discrepancies shown, not resolved
- FY26 WC: 172 days (company) vs 69 (Screener) vs CCC 419 (gross). These are different definitions: the gross cycle worsened while advances shrank the net figure.
- Dec-25 WC: 260 days (CFO, Q3 FY26 call); 266 (Q1 FY27 deck chart); 267 (CFO, Q4 FY26 call); 278 (MD, Q4 FY26 call). A genuine management inconsistency.
- Jun-25 WC 267 days ("delayed receivables from conflict-affected regions"). Q1 FY27 59 days vs a year guide of 175; ~100 days expected at FY27-end. GST refunds ~Rs 70 cr/yr help.
- Rating thresholds: CRISIL 2023 upgrade trigger inventory <220 days, downgrade >300 days; ICRA Oct-25 trigger TD/OPBDITA >2.0x (FY26 2.2x on Screener debt; ~2.6x on Rs 451 cr; ~1.7x on TTM).
Return, leverage and efficiency ratios
| Ratio | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | TTM / latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RoE (PAT / avg equity) | 12.2% | 18.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 12.1% | ~16%; Screener 12.4% |
| RoCE (Screener, pre-tax) | 16% | 22% | 11% | 10-11% | 15% | 15.1%; ROIC 14.2% |
| RoCE (mgmt, Q4 FY26 call) | - | - | - | 11.4% | 17.2% | target 23% FY27 |
| Debt / equity | 0.18 | 0.23 | 0.28 | 0.24 | 0.45 | target ~0.5x |
| Net debt / equity | net cash | 0.14 | 0.24 | 0.24 | ~0.19 | - |
| Total debt / EBITDA | 1.0x | 0.9x | 1.7x | 1.5x | 2.2x | ~1.7x TTM |
| EBIT / interest | 12.7x | 10.3x | 4.3x | 4.3x | 5.3x | Q1 FY27 5.2x |
| EBITDA / interest | 13.4x | 10.3x | 5.1x | 5.5x | 5.9x | Q1 FY27 5.3x |
| Interest cover (ICRA) | - | - | 5.1x | 5.4x | 5.8x | trigger <5x |
| TOL / TNW (ICRA) | - | - | 0.5x | 0.6x | 1.1x | - |
| Current ratio | 2.80 | 2.04 | 2.72 | 2.13 | 1.55 | - |
| Asset turnover | 0.49 | 0.64 | 0.56 | 0.63 | 0.61 | - |
| Fixed-asset turnover | 1.64 | 1.97 | 1.70 | 1.54 | 1.70 | new capex target 4-5x (CFO also said 6x) |
RoE of ~9-12% (FY24-26) is far below what ~177x P/E implies; Q1 FY27 annualised RoE ~22-24%. Interest cover has roughly halved since FY22; finance cost is the fastest-rising P&L line. CRISIL adjusted interest cover 15.25x (FY22), 11.91x (FY23).
Debt structure, lenders and credit rating
| ICRA rated facilities (Rs cr) | Sep 2024 | Oct 2025 | 7 Jul 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fund-based cash credit / WC | 297.00 | 280.00 | 530.00 |
| Term loans | 139.00 | 108.49 | 248.24 |
| Non-fund-based (BG/LC) | 214.00 | 200.00 | 304.00 |
| Unallocated | ~20 | 81.51 | 387.76 |
| Total / rating | 670 · A (Stable)/A1 | 670 · A (Stable)/A1 | 1,470 · A+ (Stable)/A1 |
| Date | Agency | Rating | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | SMERA (Acuité) | B / A4 on Rs 134 cr | Pre-IPO; withdrawn Nov 2018 |
| Jul 2020 | ICRA | BBB (Stable) | - |
| Apr 2021 | ICRA | A- (Positive) / A2+ | Up from BBB+ after IPO money repaid WC debt |
| Oct 2021 | CRISIL | A- (Stable) / A2+ | Up from BBB+/Positive; Rs 200 → 285 cr |
| Jan 2023 | CRISIL | A- (Stable) / A2+ reaffirmed | Order pipeline Rs 1,289 cr (Sep-22) |
| 4 Apr / 16 Jun 2023 | ICRA | A (Stable) / A1 | - |
| 30 Jun 2023 | CRISIL | Reaffirmed, then withdrawn at company request | Lender NOCs |
| 23 Sep 2024 | ICRA | A (Stable) / A1 | Rs 670 cr |
| 13 Oct 2025 | ICRA | A (Stable) / A1 | TD/OPBITDA 1.5x, cover 5.4x (FY25); US-tariff flag |
| 7 Jul 2026 | ICRA | A+ (Stable) / A1 | Upgrade; limits Rs 1,470 cr; liquidity "Adequate" |
ICRA Jul-2026 rationale
- Upgrade drivers: scale (FY26 Rs 876 cr, +30%); book Rs 2,582 cr + May-26 orders Rs 2,279 cr and Rs 467 cr; stable margins.
- Strengths: promoters since 1970; key supplier to BEC, ISRO, NPCIL, DRDL; gearing 0.46x; TD/OPBDITA 2.2x; cover 5.8x; free cash Rs 218.5 cr.
- Challenges: >70% of FY26 revenue from BEC; NWC/OI ~44% (62% FY25); credit to customers 30-120 days; forex exposure.
- Upgrade trigger: customer diversification + better WC. Downgrade: margin/accrual fall, WC stretch, higher debt capex, interest cover <5x. The Oct-25 trigger (TD/OPBDITA >2x) would have been breached by FY26's 2.2x and was changed with the upgrade.
- Liquidity: avg fund-based utilisation 39.2% (12m to May-26); repayments ~Rs 44.5 cr FY27, ~Rs 60 cr FY28; capex Rs 250-300 cr.
Lenders, rates, maturities
- Lenders (FY26 Directors' Report item 36): SBI, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Union Bank of India, EXIM Bank (multiple banking); security trustee SBICAP Trustee.
- Last lender-wise split (CRISIL Jun-23, Rs 285 cr): SBI BG 100, CC 30, EPC 28, LC 10, TL 25 + 5.8, WC 1.2; HDFC Bank TL 85.
- Rates FY26: TL 7.30-9.85%; CC 6.67-9.69%; USD EPC 4.69%.
- Security: TL exclusive charge on financed assets + collateral; CC/EPC on current assets + certain land/buildings.
- Maturity ladder (AR note 17, drawn TL Rs 192.0 cr): Rs 44.3 cr <1 yr; Rs 60.5 cr 1-2 yrs; Rs 87.1 cr 2-5 yrs; nil >5 yrs. Monthly loans 7-36 instalments; quarterly 5-15.
- ICRA Annexure II, 8 term loans = Rs 248.24 cr: 20.88 (FY26-30), 30.00 (FY26-30), 10.12 (FY24-28), 14.36 (FY26-29), 14.00 (FY27-30), 8.88 (FY25-29), 80.00 (FY26-31), 70.00 (FY26-33). PDF column alignment inferred.
Borrowing headroom
Postal ballot (19 Feb-20 Mar 2026) raised the limit from Rs 730.72 cr to Rs 800 cr standalone (Rs 900 cr group). The 27th AGM (28 Sep 2026) raised the Sec 180(1)(c) limit to Rs 2,000 cr (99.18% for). Q1 FY27 finance cost was Rs 15.8 cr vs Rs 5.8 cr a year earlier. [Est.] Debt could exceed Rs 600-700 cr by FY28 on Rs 500 cr capex plus WC.
Equity dilution and share count
| Event | Date | Detail | Shares after |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-IPO base | FY20 | Equity ~Rs 26.6-27 cr (FV Rs 10) | ~2.66 cr |
| Pre-IPO placement | Feb 2021 | ~18.51 lakh shares at Rs 540 (~Rs 100 cr) to SBI MF and Axis MF | ~2.86 cr |
| IPO | 3-5 Mar 2021; listed 15/16 Mar | Band Rs 574-575; fresh 21,48,149 sh (~Rs 123.5 cr: debt repayment, WC, GCP); OFS 82,24,270 sh (~Rs 473 cr); anchor Rs 178.92 cr; 200.79x (QIB 165x, NII 650.8x, retail 28.4x); JM Financial, IIFL | 3.076 cr |
| Since IPO | FY22-Q1 FY27 | No QIP, preferential, warrants, rights, bonus, split, ESOP or buyback. Equity Rs 30.76 cr (3,07,59,591 sh); authorised Rs 66 cr | 3.076 cr |
Forward dilution: no enabling QIP resolution on record (Sep-26 AGM covered borrowing/charges only). Rs 500 cr capex and peers' QIPs (Azad, PTC) make a raise plausible but not announced. Dividend history: payout 22% FY19, 43% FY20, 40% FY21, 15% FY22; none since (Dividend Distribution Policy cites capex/WC). Secondary-market ownership dilution: promoter holding went 50.26% (Mar-22), 46.63% (Mar-23), 37.26% (Mar-24), 31.77% (Mar-25), 29.36% (Jun-26), via the Jun-2023 Plutus deal, Dec-2023 open-market sales, the Q3 FY25 ~5-pt drop and 2025-26 family sales.
Management & Governance
Promoters, KMP, board, shareholding, pledges, insider trades, related parties, auditors, subsidiaries and red flags. FY26 annual report sourced from the NSE archive.
| Governance scorecard | Reading |
|---|---|
| Ownership | Family promoters (Parvat, Kallem, Akepati, Gangapatnam, Mitta); 14 promoter/group holders, none above 6%; SHP "significant beneficial owner": No |
| Promoter holding | 29.36% (30 Jun 2026; Screener 29.35%), down from 39.14% (Sep 2023): ~9.8 pp over 11 quarters |
| Pledge | 3,18,000 sh at 30 Jun 2026 = 3.52% of promoter holding / 1.03% of equity (peak 10.90% of promoter holding, Sep 2025). Est. ~2.45 lakh sh (~0.8% of equity) after filings to 6 Oct 2026 |
| Board | 9 directors: 5 independent (56%) incl. independent Chairman; 3 executive family; 1 non-executive family; 1 woman |
| Auditor | S.R. Batliboi & Associates LLP (EY); second 4-yr term to FY2029-30; Rs 0.72 cr p.a.; FY25 and FY26 unmodified; Q1 FY27 review unmodified |
| Ratings | ICRA A+ (Stable)/A1 (7 Jul 2026); CRISIL ESG 63 "Strong" (6 Oct 2026; prior rationale 3 Oct 2025); SES ESG "Medium" (7 Jan 2026) |
| Regulatory | No SEBI/MCA/exchange enforcement found; no material litigation or tax-demand disclosures (Reg 30) |
Main governance concerns, ranked
- Relentless promoter-family selling into the rally: ~Rs 265 cr in Q1 FY27 alone; sales continuing in Sep 2026.
- Revolving pledges by individual family members.
- Loss-making acquired subsidiary (Gee Pee), now being merged.
- High executive pay vs profit in FY25 (~13.5% of PAT).
- Fast-rising borrowing authority: Rs 730.72 cr → Rs 800 cr (Mar-26) → Rs 2,000 cr (Sep-26).
- Three Company Secretaries in ~20 months.
- Two minor employee insider-trading violations (2021, Nov 2025).
- Business concentration: >70% of FY26 revenue from Bloom (ICRA).
Founders and promoter history
| Person | Role / background |
|---|---|
| P. Ravindra Reddy (died Jan 2016) | Founder Chairman. Mechanical engineering, College of Engineering Anantapur (JNTU-A); briefly IISc; began at HMT Hyderabad; Governing Body of Antrix (1992-2013); National Academy of Engineering; chaired the planned Rs 1,500 cr Samuha Aerospace Park. Built the NPCIL, ISRO (PSLV/GSLV, Mangalyaan engines) and defence franchise. Father of the MD. |
| K. Satyanarayana Reddy (late) | Technocrat co-founder. The Kallem family link (K. Vamshidhar Reddy, K. Shalini) is inferred from the surname, not stated in filings. |
| P. Jayaprakash Reddy | Ravindra Reddy's brother; joined a year after founding to run finances; 0 shares; still promoter group. |
Founding: Business Today says 1969; ICRA says a partnership firm in 1970; seed capital Rs 3 lakh; Balanagar machine shop. No listed group company or promoter business transacting with MTAR; no holding company.
Promoter and promoter-group holdings (SHP 30 Jun 2026; 3,07,59,591 shares)
| Holder | Category | Shares | % equity | Pledged | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vamshidhar Reddy | Group | 17,56,087 | 5.71% | 0 | Largest promoter holder; subsidiary director; sold 1,00,000 on 21 May 2026 at ~Rs 7,910 (~Rs 79 cr) |
| Mitta Madhavi | Promoter | 13,65,983 | 4.44% | 0 | Sold 30k (Aug-25), 18k (Feb-26), 17k (Jun-26) |
| Leelavathi Parvatha Reddy | Promoter | 13,18,712 | 4.29% | 0 | Got 2,97,000 by gift (Feb-26); sold 20,000 on 16 Sep 2026 → 4.22% |
| P. Srinivas Reddy (MD) | Promoter | 11,92,903 | 3.88% | 0 | Gifted 2,00,000 to Leelavathi (24 Feb 2026); no market sales |
| A. Manogna | Promoter | 8,33,497 | 2.71% | 0 | Pledge of 1,25,000 (Bajaj Financial Securities) released 22 May 2026; gifted 2.5 lakh to Akepati Pranay (Jun-25); serial seller |
| P. Kalpana Reddy | Promoter | 7,86,199 | 2.56% | 0 | Sold 15k (May-25), 20k (Jun-25), 25k (Sep-25), 27.8k (May-26) |
| Saranya Loka Reddy | Promoter | 5,02,666 | 1.63% | 2,65,000 (52.7%) | Most heavily pledged (97.88% in Mar-26); near-monthly create/release; likely related to director Rohith Loka Reddy (inference) |
| K. Shalini | Promoter | 4,10,483 | 1.33% | 0 | Only open-market buyer: 1,05,000 on 20 Feb 2025 at ~Rs 1,432 (Rs 15.0 cr); sold 18,000 on 4 Sep 2026 |
| Anushman Reddy (WTD) | Promoter | 2,68,128 | 0.87% | 0 | Executive director |
| Kavitha Reddy Gangapatnam | Promoter | 2,00,000 | 0.65% | 43,000 (21.5%) | Sold 2.5 lakh in Nov/Dec 2025; 22,741 (May-26); 20,000 (Jun-26). Pledged 32,000 on 17 Sep 2026 (360 One) → 75,000 encumbered |
| Akepati Praval Reddy | Group | 1,95,000 | 0.63% | 0 | Sold 55,000 on 20-25 Jun 2026 (~Rs 45.6 cr) |
| Akepati Pranay Reddy | Group | 1,90,000 | 0.62% | 0 | Got 2.5 lakh by gift; sold 60,000 in May-26 |
| Northeast Broking Services Ltd | Group (corporate) | 10,000 | 0.03% | 10,000 (100%) | Only corporate promoter; sold 2,500 (disclosed Jul-26) |
| Venkata Suprathik Reddy G. | Group | 6 | 0.00% | 0 | - |
| Usha Reddy C., D. Anitha Reddy, P. Jayaprakash Reddy | Promoter/Group | 0 | 0.00% | - | Usha and Anitha exited via the Plutus deal (Jun 2023) |
| Total | 90,29,664 | 29.36% | 3,18,000 | 3.52% of promoter holding |
Key management
| Name | Role | Since | Background / pay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parvat Srinivas Reddy (DIN 00359139) | MD; promoter | Board since ≥2015; MD/CEO since Sep 2020 | Son of founder; director of both subsidiaries; Technology Committee. FY25 pay Rs 4.00 cr (69x median); FY26 Rs 3.10 cr (AR note 38). Education not disclosed. |
| Akepati Praveen Kumar Reddy | WTD | Re-appointed 3 yrs (Sep 2025 AGM) | Related to Anushman Reddy. Salary Rs 0.96 cr + up to 30% variable. FY25 Rs 1.28 cr (22x); FY26 ~Rs 1.0-1.3 cr (PDF alignment uncertain) |
| M. Anushman Reddy (DIN 08104131) | WTD; Export Division & Supply Chain | Re-appointed Sep 2025; by rotation 28 Sep 2026 (98.13%) | BE Mech (JNTU); MS Global SCM (USC Marshall); NMIMS EPGD. Salary Rs 1.44 cr + 30% variable. FY25 Rs 1.90 cr (32x); FY26 Rs 1.49 cr |
| Gunneswara Rao Pusarla | CFO | 2 Nov 2021 | ~23 yrs at appointment (planning, P&L, fund-raising, greenfield); fronts calls |
| Arun Kumar Ojha | Chief Commercial Officer | 27 Apr 2024 | Hired for diversification away from Bloom; prior employers not found |
| Raja Sheker Bollampally | COO | n/a | Listed on mtar.in |
| Priyanka Agarwal | CS & Compliance Officer | 2 Feb 2026 | Replaced Naina Singh |
KMP churn: Shubham Sunil Bagadia (CS) resigned eff. 31 May 2024; Naina Singh (CS from 1 Jun 2024) resigned eff. 20 Jan 2026 (filed 28 Nov 2025); Pusparaj Satpathy (SVP-HR) eff. 16 Dec 2024. Sreeram Sambasiva Srinivasan (IIT Madras; PhD NCSU; ex-Shanthi Gears) is described by third parties as a pre-IPO CEO (low confidence). FY25 executive pay ~Rs 7.2 cr = ~13.5% of PAT Rs 52.9 cr (~7.6% of FY26 PAT if flat). ID commission cap raised from Rs 15 lakh to Rs 25 lakh per ID (≤1% of NP; aggregate Rs 1.25 cr p.a. for five years from FY27; 99.96% for).
Board of directors
| # | Name | Role | Category | Tenure | Background / committees |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B.V.R. Subbu (DIN 00289721) | Chairman | Independent | From 5 Dec 2018; to Dec 2028 | Ex-President Hyundai Motor India, ex-Tata Motors (not re-verified). Chairs SRC, RMC; Audit, NRC, Technology |
| 2 | Parvat Srinivas Reddy | MD | Executive, promoter | Rotation Sep 2025 | Technology Committee |
| 3 | A. Praveen Kumar Reddy | WTD | Executive, family | Sep 2025 (3 yrs) | - |
| 4 | M. Anushman Reddy | WTD | Executive, promoter | Rotation 28 Sep 2026 | CSR |
| 5 | Rohith Loka Reddy (DIN 06464331) | Director | Non-exec, non-indep. | Additional 10 Feb 2025; rotation 28 Sep 2026 | MBA ISB; BSc Bentley. Related to MD. Highest dissent at 2026 AGM (2.77% against) |
| 6 | A. Krishna Kumar | Director | Independent | 5 Dec 2018; re-appt 5 Dec 2023 | Ex-MD SBI (not re-verified). Audit Chair; NRC, SRC, RMC |
| 7 | Ameeta Chatterjee | Director | Independent (sole woman) | 5 Dec 2018; re-appt 2023 | Infra finance / IB. NRC Chair; Audit, RMC |
| 8 | Dr V.G. Sekaran | Director | Independent | Continuation beyond age 75 approved Sep 2025 | Ex-DG Missiles & Strategic Systems, DRDO. Technology Chair; SRC, CSR, RMC |
| 9 | U.C. Muktibodh | Director | Independent | Dec 2018; re-appt 2023 | Ex-Director (Technical), NPCIL. CSR Chair; RMC, Technology |
| Committee | Chair | Members |
|---|---|---|
| Audit | A. Krishna Kumar | Ameeta Chatterjee, BVR Subbu |
| Nomination & Remuneration | Ameeta Chatterjee | A. Krishna Kumar, BVR Subbu |
| Stakeholders Relationship | BVR Subbu | A. Krishna Kumar, V.G. Sekaran |
| CSR | U.C. Muktibodh | V.G. Sekaran, Anushman Reddy |
| Risk Management | BVR Subbu | Chatterjee, Krishna Kumar, Sekaran, Muktibodh |
| Technology (non-statutory) | V.G. Sekaran | Subbu, Muktibodh, P. Srinivas Reddy |
Audit, NRC and RMC are 100% independent. The ID domain mix fits the business. Cliff risk: all five IDs started Dec 2018 and hit the 10-year limit together in Dec 2028. FY25: 4 board meetings (28 May, 13 Aug, 29 Oct 2024; 10 Feb 2025); board evaluation done. Past director G.V. Satish Kumar Reddy re-appointed at the 2024 AGM, resigned 13 Dec 2024 (no reason found); still a director of both subsidiaries.
Shareholding trend
| Quarter | Promoter | FII/FPI | DII (MF) | Public | Shareholders |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | 29.36 | 24.80 | 22.35 (20.36) | 23.51 | 2,58,386 |
| Mar 2026 | 30.44 | 17.31 | 27.66 (23.49) | 24.59 | 2,09,273 |
| Dec 2025 | 30.59 | 12.24 | 29.96 (24.80) | 27.19 | 2,18,461 |
| Sep 2025 | 31.41 | 9.21 | 24.81 (19.81) | 34.58 | 2,75,940 |
| Jun 2025 | 31.65 | 7.57 | 23.51 (18.71) | 37.26 | 2,97,581 |
| Mar 2025 | 31.77 | 6.74 | 24.40 (19.36) | 37.10 | 3,01,097 |
| Dec 2024 | 31.42 | 7.01 | 23.17 (18.40) | 38.39 | 3,04,480 |
| Sep 2024 | 36.42 | 7.81 | 17.28 | 38.49 | 3,17,125 |
| Sep 2023 | 39.14 | 8.81 | 24.06 | 27.98 | 2,75,168 |
FII is shown as 24.79% in the SHP category split and 24.80% on Trendlyne/Screener; 24.80% is used throughout. Sep-26 SHP is due ~21 Oct 2026. FPI Cat I 21.21%, Cat II 3.59%; FPI-limit utilisation 8.69 → 10.34 → 13.3 → 18.36 → 25.7%. Dec 2024: promoter −5.0 pp in one quarter (36.42 → 31.42); mechanism not identified (gap).
| Pledged % of promoter holding | Sep23 | Dec23 | Mar24 | Jun24 | Sep24 | Dec24 | Mar25 | Jun25 | Sep25 | Dec25 | Mar26 | Jun26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | 6.64 | 9.16 | 8.59 | 8.50 | 8.50 | 9.86 | 10.36 | 9.53 | 10.90 | 8.98 | 8.94 | 3.52 |
Current estimate: Saranya ~1,60,000 (repeated 1.05-lakh cycles in Sep-26; 1 lakh with HDFC Bank Jan-26); Kavitha 75,000 (360 One; released 1.77 lakh by end-Jun 2026, disclosed 9 Jul, and 2 lakh Dec-25. [Inferred] The release predates 30 Jun: NSE pledge data show 3,18,000 promoter shares pledged at 30 Jun 2026, too few for Kavitha's 2.2 lakh plus Manogna's 1.25 lakh); Northeast Broking 10,000. Lenders: Bajaj Financial Securities, HDFC Bank, 360 One. Purpose: "availing a loan" (personal).
Insider / SAST transactions (Apr 2025 - Sep 2026)
| Date | Person | Txn | Qty | Avg Rs | ~Rs cr | Holding after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | Leelavathi Parvatha Reddy | Sale | 20,000 | n/a | ~15 (est.) | 4.22% |
| 4 Sep 2026 | K. Shalini | Sale | 18,000 | n/a | ~13-14 (est.) | 1.27% |
| 20-25 Jun 2026 | Akepati Praval Reddy | Sale (3) | 55,000 | 8,120-8,396 | 45.6 | 0.63% |
| 16 Jun 2026 | Kavitha Reddy G. | Sale | 20,000 | 7,696 | 15.4 | 0.65% |
| Jun 2026 | Mitta Madhavi | Sale | 17,000 | 7,582.5 | 12.9 | 4.44% |
| 27 May 2026 | P. Kalpana Reddy | Sale | 27,802 | 7,884.6 | 21.9 | 2.56% |
| 21 May 2026 | K. Vamshidhar Reddy | Sale | 1,00,000 | 7,910 | 79.1 | 5.70% |
| 21 May 2026 | Kavitha Reddy G. | Sale | 22,741 | 7,622.5 | 17.3 | 0.72% |
| 20-21 May 2026 | A. Manogna | Sale | 30,000 | 7,532.3 | 22.6 | 2.71% |
| 19-20 May 2026 | Akepati Pranay Reddy | Sale | 60,000 | ~7,900 | ~42-47 | 0.61-0.62% |
| Jul 2026 (disclosed) | Northeast Broking | Sale | 2,500 | n/a | ~2 | - |
| Mar 2026 | A. Manogna | Sale | 13,274 | n/a | - | 8,63,497 |
| 20-24 Feb 2026 | A. Manogna / Mitta Madhavi | Sale | 15,000 / 18,000 | 3,287 / 3,720 | 4.9 / 6.7 | - |
| 27 Nov / 1 Dec 2025* | Kavitha Reddy G. | Sale | 2,45,500 / 2,50,000 | 2,444 / 2,373.7 | ~59-60 | 0.79% |
| Sep 2025 | P. Kalpana Reddy / A. Manogna | Sale | 24,999 / 14,000 | 1,781 / 1,441 | 4.5 / 2.0 | - |
| Aug 2025 | Mitta Madhavi; A. Manogna | Sale | 30,000; 6,118 | ~1,510 | 4.5; 0.9 | - |
| May-Jun 2025 | P. Kalpana Reddy | Sale | 15,000 + 20,000 | 1,642 / 1,753 | 2.5 / 3.5 | - |
| 20 Feb 2025 | K. Shalini | Buy | 1,05,000 | ~1,432 | 15.0 | ~1.3% |
Reconciliation and discrepancy flags
- *Probable single event, conflicting date and price: exchange block-deal data show a 27 Nov 2025 block (Kavitha, 2,45,500 sh at Rs 2,444, ~Rs 60 cr; buyers Motilal Oswal MF 2,04,580 and Bajaj Finserv MF 40,920). The SAST disclosure record shows a 1 Dec 2025 sale (2,50,000 at Rs 2,373.7, ~Rs 59.3 cr). Counted once.
- Q1 FY27 promoter shares fell 93,64,707 → 90,29,664 = 3,35,043 shares, matching the insider filings exactly (Vamshidhar 1,00,000 + Pranay 60,000 + Praval 55,000 + Manogna 30,000 + Kalpana 27,802 + Kavitha 42,741 + Madhavi 17,000 + Northeast 2,500), at ~Rs 7,500-8,400, so ~Rs 260-270 cr. [Est.]
- Totals. Q1 FY27: ~Rs 260-270 cr (SHP share count and SAST filings above). FY26 to Q1 FY27 (Apr 2025-Jun 2026): ~Rs 340 cr+. Nov 2025-Sep 2026: ~Rs 360 cr+ [Est.: Aamara arithmetic summing the SAST/insider rows in the table above: Nov/Dec block ~60 + Feb ~12 + Mar ~5 + Q1 FY27 ~264 + Sep ~28]. A secondary tally of "~Rs 250-270 cr including the Nov block" understates: it omits the Akepati Praval Reddy sale (55,000 sh, Rs 45.6 cr) and treats ~Rs 57 cr of Mar-Jun 2026 tranches as small. Since IPO: OFS ~Rs 473 cr, Plutus ~Rs 247 cr (Jun 2023), the Dec-2024 tranche, and the above.
- The MD made no market sales (gifts only), but holds just 3.88%. Sellers are mostly non-management family.
Related-party transactions (FY26 AR note 38; H2 FY26 Reg 23(9))
| Counterparty | Relationship | Nature | FY26 | FY25 | Balance 31 Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gee Pee Aerospace & Defence | 100% sub | Job-work purchases by MTAR | 2.44 (sub books 2.48) | 3.20 | Advance from customers (in sub) 5.79 |
| Gee Pee | 100% sub | Trade advance from MTAR | 5.23 | 10.28 | Trade advance 5.86 (FY25 0.47) |
| Gee Pee | 100% sub | Term loan from MTAR (~10%) | - | - | 6.12 + interest accrued 1.82 = ~7.94 |
| Gee Pee | 100% sub | Interest income to MTAR | 0.61 | 0.55 | - |
| Gee Pee | 100% sub | Corporate guarantee for bank loan | nil | 19.5 | - |
| Magnatar Aero Systems | 100% sub | Reimbursement of expenses | 0.012 | 0.008 | Advance ~0.05 |
| K. Shalini | Promoter | Rent | ~0.08 | ~0.08 | - |
| P. Sasidhar Reddy | Relative of MD | Rent (new) | ~0.12 | - | - |
| Nettlinx Ltd | Common KMP | Internet charges (new) | ~0.12 | - | - |
| MD / WTDs / CFO | KMP | Remuneration | MD 3.10; Anushman 1.49; Praveen ~1.0-1.3 | 4.00 / 1.90 / 1.28 | Payable: MD 1.17, Anushman 0.41, Praveen 0.36, CFO 0.26 |
| Independent directors / Rohith Loka Reddy | Directors | Sitting fees + commission | ~0.21-0.24 each / ~0.04 | n/a | - |
Discrepancy, not reconciled: the H2 FY26 RPT filing totals Rs 5.12 cr (Gee Pee "sale, purchase and supply of goods" Rs 4.93 cr; Sasidhar rent 0.105; Nettlinx 0.05; Shalini 0.04), which exceeds the AR's full-year Gee Pee job-work of Rs 2.44 cr, likely because it includes the ~Rs 5.4 cr rise in trade advance. All approved by the audit committee (22 May / 5 Aug 2025); RPT policy updated 12 May 2026. Note-38 columns are misaligned in the PDF text (±1 row risk on pay). No material-RPT shareholder approvals were sought; no material RPTs.
Auditors
| Role | Firm | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Statutory | S.R. Batliboi & Associates LLP (FRN 101049W/E300004); Q1 FY27 partner Atin Bhargava (M.No. 504777) | Re-appointed 26th AGM (18 Sep 2025) to 30th AGM; Rs 72 lakh p.a.; peer review valid to 31 Jul 2027. 2025 AGM notice needed a corrigendum (omitted explanatory statement). |
| Secretarial | S.S. Reddy & Associates | FY26-FY30, Rs 2.40 lakh p.a.; also e-voting scrutiniser |
| Cost | Sagar & Associates | FY27-FY29, Rs 6 lakh p.a. + 10% escalation (FY26 Rs 4 lakh) |
| Internal | Seshachalam & Co. | Re-appointed FY27-FY29 (May 2026) |
| IFC reviewer | Pundarikashyam & Associates (FRN 011330S) | Also statutory auditor of Gee Pee, so not fully independent of the group |
| Magnatar auditor | M.V. Vijaya Kumar & Co. (FRN 007890S) | FY26 unmodified |
FY26: unmodified standalone and consolidated, no emphasis of matter. Only KAM: revenue recognition (Ind AS 115, incoterms cut-off; domestic Rs 147.4 cr, export Rs 717.9 cr). Audit trail operated with no tampering. FY25: clean; no Sec 143(12) fraud; secretarial and cost audits clean. FY25 Directors' Report contradicts itself on cost records. Gee Pee CARO: cash losses FY26 and FY25; gratuity/leave not provided; Rs 5.66 lakh TDS/ESI interest and penalties; presentation errors. Magnatar: statutory dues "with some delays".
Subsidiaries and acquisitions
| Entity | Business | FY25 | FY26 | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gee Pee Aerospace & Defence (CIN U29100TG1988PTC008777); bought May 2022 for Rs 8.82 cr (FY21 revenue Rs 1.68 cr; NW Rs 1.34 cr) | CNC parts and special processes; AS9100D, ISO 9001, NADCAP | Rev 3.24; loss 0.86 | Rev 2.54 (~97% to MTAR); loss 1.19; NW −1.25 | Captive job-shop. Debt to parent 7.94; capex 3.82; deficit 3.66; employee cost 2.08 (~82% of revenue) |
| Magnatar Aero Systems (CIN U29308TG2019PTC136567); inc. 4 Nov 2019 | Intended heavy precision equipment | Loss 0.0076 | Loss 0.0094; NW −0.045 | Dormant shell, never operational |
| Merger step (Sec 230-232) | Date |
|---|---|
| Subsidiary boards approve | 22 May 2025 |
| MTAR board approves | 6 Nov 2025 |
| Filed with NCLT Hyderabad | 16 Mar 2026 |
| Petition presented / admitted | 19 Jun / 10 Jul 2026 |
| Hearing (objections by 2 Sep) | 4 Sep 2026; outcome not reported as of 9 Oct 2026 |
No associates, JVs, overseas subsidiaries or cross-holdings. Capital-allocation risk sits in organic capex, not M&A.
Governance red flags
| # | Item | Finding | Severity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Promoter-family selling | 39.1% → 29.4%; ~Rs 265 cr in Q1 FY27; continuing Sep-26 | High |
| 2 | Revolving pledges | Peak 10.90%; now ~0.8% of equity; near-monthly cycles | Medium |
| 3 | Customer concentration | 72.3% Bloom; customer withheld in PO disclosures (confidentiality) | Medium |
| 4 | Leverage authority | Rs 730.72 → 800 → 2,000 cr; TOL/TNW 0.6 → 1.1x; TD/OPBDITA 1.5 → 2.2x | Medium |
| 5 | Executive pay | FY25 ~13.5% of PAT; MD 69x median | Medium-Low |
| 6 | Subsidiary quality | Gee Pee loss-making, negative NW, sloppy statements | Low |
| 7 | KMP churn | 3 CSs in ~20 months; CFO stable since 2021 | Low |
| 8 | Director exit | G.V. Satish Kumar Reddy, 13 Dec 2024, unexplained | Low |
| 9 | Insider trading | Nov 2025 VP-Production Sidda Reddy Doggala contra trade, Rs 1,252 disgorged 6 Feb 2026; 2021 DGM-Accounts Rs 73,224 disgorged; self-reported. (Forum describes the 2025 case as a "COO" trade of ~Rs 1.06 lakh; filing says VP-Production.) | Low |
| 10 | Board succession | All IDs exit Dec 2028; one ID over 75; MD's relative on board | Low-Medium |
| 11 | SEBI/MCA actions | None found | None |
| 12 | Contingent liabilities (note 34) | Claims not acknowledged Rs 2.27 cr (unchanged); capital commitments Rs 160.0 cr (FY25 12.1); BG/LC Rs 149.9 cr | Low |
| 13 | Procedural | AGM corrigendum; cost-records inconsistency | Low |
| 14 | Dividend | None FY23-FY26 (capex/WC) | Info |
Positives: Big-4-network auditor with clean opinions; independent chair; ICRA A+; CRISIL ESG Strong; ≥97% approval on all resolutions; prompt Reg 30/SAST disclosures. CSR FY25 Rs 2.00 cr spent vs Rs 1.98 cr obligation. ~73% of FY26 revenue from clean energy incl. nuclear (ICRA).
Heard on Street
Brokerage coverage, target revisions, smart-money flows, bulk/block deals, named voices and forum sentiment. Upside vs Rs 7,660.
Limits: Reddit, X and StockTwits were not accessible; broker PDFs (MOSL 30 Jan 2026, Arihant Q2 FY26) were not renderable, so their figures come from summaries. Sep-26 SHP not yet filed.
| Street snapshot | Reading |
|---|---|
| Current named calls | 3 Buy / 0 Hold / 0 Sell: Motilal Oswal Rs 9,000; JM Financial Rs 9,375; Arihant Rs 8,294 |
| Named target range | Low 8,294 (+8.3%) / median 9,000 (+17.5%) / high 9,375 (+22.4%) / mean 8,890 (+16.1%) |
| Aggregators | MarketScreener 5 analysts, mean Buy, mean Rs 9,200 (+20.1%), high 10,240 (+33.7%), low 8,000 (+4.4%); TradingView 7 analysts (header 8,940); Trendlyne consensus Rs 9,200 |
| Performance | ~+220% YTD 2026 (+226.8% at Rs 7,820 on 8 Sep); ~+1,230% vs Rs 575 IPO; ATH Rs 8,714.95 (19 Jun 2026) |
| 52-week low (discrepancy) | Rs 1,866 within the 52-week window (Screener); Rs 1,390.5-1,391 (29 Aug 2025, DSIJ) falls just outside it |
| Drawdown | −34% to Rs 5,741.50 on 20 Jul 2026 (third straight 5% lower circuit); Rs 5,457 on 21 Jul (sixth lower circuit in seven sessions, −35% in a month); recovered ~+33-40% |
| Surveillance | T2T (BSE 'T' / NSE 'BE', 5% band) from 25 Jun 2026; LT-ASM Stage IV (Jul 2026); current status unverified |
| Dominant debate | Bloom concentration (72.3% of FY26 revenue) vs diversification optionality; ~51x FY28E / ~35x FY29E consensus EPS |
Current calls
| House | Rating | TP (Rs) | Date | Basis | Upside | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motilal Oswal (Sumant Kumar) | Buy | 9,000 | 24 Sep 2026 | 60x FY28E EPS; ~0.5x PEG | +17.5% | Rev/EBITDA/PAT CAGR 78/98/118% FY26-28E; "multi-vertical manufacturing platform"; nuclear ~Rs 19,500 cr cumulative; A&D ~Rs 200 cr FY27, Rs 600-700 cr in 3-4 yrs; SLB Rs 400-500 cr potential; capex ~Rs 500 cr at 4-5x turns (~70% fuel cells) |
| JM Financial | Buy (initiation) | 9,375 | ~8 Sep 2026 | 42x FY29E; 49x FY28E / 32x FY29E at initiation; PEG 0.46x | +22.4% | Revenue CAGR 66%, PAT 92% FY26-29E; RoE 37%, RoCE 33% by FY29E; book Rs 5,100 cr = 4.8x trailing; Bloom ~USD 6 bn product backlog; Bloom "more than half" of revenue |
| Arihant Capital (Bala Subramanian) | Buy (re-upgraded) | 8,294 | Aug 2026 | n.d. | +8.3% | Rev/EBITDA/PAT CAGR 56.3/71.4/82% FY26-29E; ROE/ROCE 29.3/33.4% FY29E; FY27E 80% growth, 24% margin; WC 59 days; net debt Rs 20-30 cr; capex ~Rs 500 cr (source misprinted "Rs 5 crore") |
Implied EPS [Est.]: MOSL FY28E ~Rs 150 (≈Rs 447 cr PAT); JM FY29E ~Rs 223 (9,375/42; but 32x at ~Rs 7,820 implies ~Rs 244, not reconciled); Arihant FY29E PAT ~Rs 567 cr (EPS ~Rs 184). At Rs 7,660: ~51x MOSL FY28E, ~34-35x JM FY29E.
Stale, superseded or unverified calls
| House | Rating | TP | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motilal Oswal | Buy | 7,550 | 30 Jul 2026 (CMP 5,453.5) | Superseded; WC "addressed", NWC ~100 days FY27 |
| Motilal Oswal | Buy | 6,000 | 15 Apr 2026 | Superseded; FY27E/28E revenue +16%/+33% |
| Motilal Oswal | Buy | 4,810 | 26/27 Feb 2026 (CMP 3,683) | Superseded; FY25-28E rev/EBITDA/PAT CAGR 40/55/78% |
| Motilal Oswal | Buy | 3,900 | 30 Jan 2026 (CMP 2,931.5) | Superseded; 40x FY28E; 0.7x PEG; WC/negative OCF concern |
| Motilal Oswal | Buy | 2,900 | 6 Nov 2025 | Superseded |
| Motilal Oswal | Buy | 1,900 | 17 Jul 2025 | Superseded; 35x FY27E |
| Avendus Spark (Gaurav Nagori) | Buy (initiation) | 3,200 | 19 Jan 2026 | Stale |
| IIFL Securities | Buy (from Add) | 3,270 | 7 Nov 2025 | Stale |
| PhillipCapital (Viprav Shrivastava) | Buy (initiation) | 2,190 | ~FY25 (35x FY27E EPS Rs 63) | Stale |
| Arihant Capital | Reduce | 2,219 | 7 Nov 2025 (CMP 2,374) | Reversed later |
| ICICI Securities (Mohit Kumar) | Buy | 7,000 | 2026 (Univest only) | Unverified; same source cites JM at 7,500 vs verified 9,375 |
| Edelweiss | Buy | 1,770-2,450 | Aug 2022-Aug 2023 | Dormant |
| Macquarie; HDFC Sec, ICICI Sec, PL, Ashika (IPO notes) | - | n/a | 2021-2022 | Historical |
Ignored aggregator artefacts: Trendlyne 7,400.50 and 7,358.25; TradingView BSE 2,028; Simply Wall St Rs 1,979 (Sep 2025); TipRanks (only MOSL 4,810).
Rating actions, last 12 months
| Date | House | Action | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | MOSL | TP 1,900 → 2,900 | Q2 FY26; H2 visibility; Bloom orders reviving |
| 7 Nov 2025 | Arihant | Downgrade Buy → Reduce, TP 2,219 | H2 FY26 margin pressure from US tariffs; ~50x P/E rich; Q2 PAT Rs 4.2 cr vs Rs 19.8 cr estimate |
| 7 Nov 2025 | IIFL | Upgrade Add → Buy, TP 3,270 | Order momentum |
| 19 Jan 2026 | Avendus Spark | Initiation Buy, TP 3,200 | - |
| 30 Jan 2026 | MOSL | TP 2,900 → 3,900 | Q3: revenue 278 (vs 174), PAT 35 (vs 16); book 2,394.9 (from 1,296.6) |
| 26 Feb 2026 | MOSL | TP 3,900 → 4,810 | AI-infra demand via Bloom |
| 15 Apr 2026 | MOSL | TP 4,810 → 6,000 | Bloom-Oracle 1.2 → 2.8 GW; stock +10% |
| May-Aug 2026 | Arihant | Re-upgrade Reduce → Buy, TP 8,294 | 80% guide; WC 59 days |
| 30 Jul 2026 | MOSL | TP 6,000 → 7,550 | Q1 beat; WC fix |
| ~8 Sep 2026 | JM Financial | Initiation Buy, TP 9,375 | Rs 5,100 cr book; Bloom backlog |
| 24 Sep 2026 | MOSL | TP 7,550 → 9,000 | 60x FY28E; platform thesis |
Seven successive targets (six raises) in 14 months; the multiple went from 35x FY27E to ~40x FY28E to 60x FY28E. Trendlyne marks every MOSL target up to 7,550 as "met". Part of each raise was multiple expansion following price; estimate upgrades were real too (PAT CAGR 78% → 118%).
Smart-money flows
| Category (% equity) | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | Dec-25 | Mar-26 | Jun-26 | 4Q change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Promoter & group | 31.65 | 31.41 | 30.59 | 30.44 | 29.36 | −2.29 pp |
| Pledged (% of promoter holding) | 9.53 | 10.90 | 8.98 | 8.94 | 3.52 | −6.0 pp |
| FII / FPI | 7.57 | 9.21 | 12.24 | 17.31 | 24.80 | +17.2 pp |
| DII total | 23.51 | 24.81 | 29.96 | 27.66 | 22.35 | −1.2 pp |
| · Mutual funds | 18.71 | 19.81 | 24.80 | 23.49 | 20.36 | +1.65 pp (−4.44 from peak) |
| · Insurance | 3.94 | 3.84 | 2.53 | 1.71 | 0.80 | −3.1 pp |
| Public / retail | 37.26 | 34.58 | 27.19 | 24.59 | 23.51 | −13.8 pp |
| Individuals ≤Rs 2 lakh | n/a | n/a | 22.91 | 20.65 | 20.35 | - |
| No. of FPIs | n/a | n/a | 87 | 161 | 230 (Trendlyne 281) | - |
| No. of MF schemes | n/a | n/a | 19 | 21 | 23 | - |
- Register rotated domestic → foreign: FPI 6.74% (Mar-25) → 24.80% (Jun-26); FE called MTAR an "FII favourite defence stock in FY26"; FPI count ~2.6x in two quarters.
- Domestic funds distributing: MF peak 24.80% (Dec-25) → 20.36%; ABSL Insurance 3.32% → <1%. Monthly MF data for Jul-Sep 2026 not retrieved.
- Pledge largely cleaned up (10.90% → 3.52% of promoter holding).
- Retail pro-cyclical: holders −92k Mar-25 to Mar-26, then +49k in the Jun-26 quarter into the peak.
Bulk and block deals (directional)
| Date | Type | Party | Side | Shares | Price | ~Rs cr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2025 | Bulk | BNP Paribas Financial Markets (ODI) | Buy | 3,53,102 | 2,288.52 | 80.8 |
| 27 Nov 2025 | Block | Kavitha Reddy Gangapatnam | Sell | 2,45,500 | 2,444 | 60.0 |
| 27 Nov 2025 | Block | Motilal Oswal MF (Focused) | Buy | 2,04,580 | 2,444 | 50.0 |
| 27 Nov 2025 | Block | Bajaj Finserv MF | Buy | 40,920 | 2,444 | 10.0 |
| 9 Jan 2026 | Bulk | BofA Securities Europe SA | Buy (0.66%) | 2,06,076 | 2,665.45 | 54.9 |
| 30 Jul 2026 | Bulk | BNP Paribas Financial Markets | Buy 26,172 / Sell 2,15,319 | net −1.89 lakh | ~5,426-5,444 | net −102.6 |
| Jun 2023 | Bulk | Plutus Wealth Management | Buy | 13,15,000* | - | 247.22 |
Non-directional: ~70 matched HFT/prop prints (HRTI, Jump Trading, Junomoneta, Microcurves, QE Securities, NK Securities, Graviton) Feb 2025-Jun 2026, clustered on 13-22 May 2026 (Rs 6,575 → 8,304), 11 Jun (Crusoe, ~Rs 6,500) and 12-18 Jun (Rs 7,028 → 8,412), which is part of why the stock moved to T2T. Some secondary coverage reported "no 2025-26 block deals"; the Nov 2025 block above supersedes that. *Plutus bought 13.15 lakh shares in total (Rs 247.22 cr). Of these, ~11.2 lakh shares (3.6%) came from promoters Usha Reddy C., Anitha Reddy D. and Kavitha Reddy G.; the balance came from other sellers. Pre-IPO investor Florintree separately exited ~10% via block deals (~Rs 500 cr at ~Rs 1,800).
Scheme-level holders
| Holder | Type | Jun-25 | Dec-25 | Mar-26 | Jun-26 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nippon India (Small Cap/Growth) | MF | 6.74% | 5.82% | 5.43% | 4.29% | Steady trimming; sold 20,000 on 3 Jun 2026 |
| HSBC Small Cap | MF | n/a | 4.33% | 4.33% | 3.73% | Trimmed |
| Sundaram (SC / Business Cycle / LT Micro Cap) | MF | 1.30% | 1.47% | 1.21% | 2.91% | Added; only domestic house clearly adding |
| Motilal Oswal Focused | MF | n/a | 2.61% | 3.07% | 2.50% | Bought Nov block; trimmed. Sister of most bullish broker (disclosure-conflict flag) |
| HDFC Defence | MF | 3.45% | 3.45% | 2.60% | 2.44% | Cut 3.1 lakh sh since Dec-25 |
| Bajaj Finserv Flexi Cap | MF | n/a | 2.15% | 1.70% | <1% | Largely exited |
| Franklin India Small Cap | MF | n/a | 1.75% | 1.75% | 1.00% | Cut ~43% |
| Kotak Multicap | MF | 3.41% | <1% | <1% | <1% | Exited |
| MO Nifty Microcap 250 Index | MF passive | 1.38% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Likely <1% |
| ABSL Insurance | Insurance | 3.32% | 2.07% | 1.35% | <1% | Steady exit |
| BNP Paribas Fin. Markets (ODI) | FPI Cat II | - | - | - | 1.57% | Net seller 30 Jul; ~0.95% likely (inference) |
| SmallCap World Fund (Capital Group) | FPI | - | - | - | 1.24% | New long-only entry |
| Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index | FPI passive | - | - | - | 1.02% | Index weight |
| iShares Core MSCI EM ETF | FPI passive | - | - | 1.04% | <1% | - |
| AIFs / insurers (aggregate) | DII | - | - | - | 1.19% / 0.80% | No PMS/AIF above 1% |
Q1 FY27 call participants (coverage interest, not holdings): Mohit Kumar (ICICI Sec), Bala Subramanian (Arihant), Gaurav Nagori (Avendus Spark), Sumant Kumar (MOSL), Viprav Shrivastava (PhillipCapital), Viraj Parekh (Carnelian), Jenish Karia (Union AMC), Rohit Natarajan (Axis Max Life), Piyush Dasani (Sundaram Alternates), Pritesh Chheda (Lucky Investments). Cyriac Mathew (ex-Blackstone) reported on ValuePickr as an investor (unverified).
Named voices
| Voice | Platform | Stance | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parvat Srinivas Reddy (MD) | ET Now (12 Jun 2026), CNBC-TV18 (15 Apr 2026), calls | Bull | No cancellation/deferment communication from Bloom; "pretty confident to do better than the guidance"; US DC slowdown "no issue at all" |
| HDFC SKY (4 May 2026) | Broker media | Cautious | Valuations "leave little room for disappointment"; Bloom a "single-point vulnerability"; dip "a valuation-led pause" |
| Financial Express (May 2026) | Media | Neutral-cautious | P/E 213.8x vs industry 64.6x; P/B 25.4x vs 7.9x; ROCE 15.2% vs 16.6% |
| Business Standard / Hans India / NewKerala | Media | Event-negative | Crusoe pause; three lower circuits; −34% |
| Business Today (3 Aug, 8 Sep 2026) | Media | Constructive | "16x rally in 5 yrs... analysts see 45% upside" |
| Ankit Jaiswal (Univest, 21 May 2026) | Technical | Neutral-bull | Resistance ~Rs 7,305; target 8,200; bull 10,000 / bear 5,500 |
| Akshay Jogani | ValuePickr (Dec 2025) | Bull | PAT ~Rs 90 cr → ~Rs 300 cr in two years |
| Karan Shah (karanshah137) | ValuePickr / Substack | Nuanced | "The Order Book Is Exploding... But the P&L is not"; FII demand absorbs promoter supply |
| phreakv6 / Karnik_Shah1 / Prabhat_Mohanty | ValuePickr | Bull | Guidance upgrade; 4.6% allocation; listed among multibaggers |
| The Motley Fool (US) | Bloom coverage, 11 Jun 2026 | Context | Wyoming project continues even though Crusoe stepped back |
ValuePickr mood timeline (topic 99156, ~264 posts; quiet after 29 Jul 2026)
| Period | Mood | Key posts |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 2025 | Cautious bull | Dayalal_Bhut wants Q1 proof given past misses |
| Oct 2025 | Bull | Adani-MTAR AMCA tie-up; Bloom-Brookfield USD 5 bn; ~Rs 800 cr FY26 orders tallied |
| Jan-Feb 2026 | Bull, valuation questions | SEBI insider-trading findings (small); NAMAN_PARMAR flags capacity mismatch: Bloom 1-2 GW vs MTAR 2-4 GW |
| Mar-Apr 2026 | Mixed | "Waiting for dips"; data-centre PO Rs 35.56 cr; Oracle +10% |
| 13 May 2026 | Split | Q4 operating profit dipped QoQ (~64 → 62); 80% guide |
| 14-21 May 2026 | Euphoric | USD 238.76 mn blanket PO; FY28 growth 80-100% hoped |
| 22-24 May 2026 | Peak debate | akacker exits above Rs 6,000 (30k hot boxes = Rs 3,100-3,500 cr revenue FY29-30; FY29 EPS ~Rs 190 = 40x+); Taiwanese supplier ~50% (AI-sourced, unverified); "why are promoters selling?" |
| 27 May 2026 | Negative | Adani exits AMCA race (non-selection inferred, not confirmed by MTAR) |
| 11-12 Jun 2026 | Fear then rebuttal | Crusoe pause; shyamutty: 3x 65% / 5x 30% / 10x 8% probabilities |
| 23 Jun 2026 | Profit-taking | murali603/BMK exits at 4-5x |
| 29 Jul 2026 | Relief | FY27 EPS Rs 60-70 projected; calandria (3-4 global suppliers) as nuclear moat |
Synthesis [Analyst View]
Sell-side conviction is higher than six months ago: more houses, higher targets, longer-dated multiples. Forum conviction is lower and more valuation-aware. Insiders remain net sellers. Contention points: (1) valuation method drift (35x FY27E → 60x FY28E); (2) Bloom dependence vs the "platform" narrative, with Bloom's own stock setting MTAR's tape (+10% Oracle, −10/11% Crusoe, −34% while Bloom fell ~38%); (3) insiders and legacy MFs selling to FPIs and the sell-side. The margin guide is not contested: 24% ±100 bps is verified in the Q1 FY27 transcript and deck; "22%" readings were transcription errors. Watch: Sep-26 SHP (~21 Oct), Q2 FY27 (early Nov), Bloom Q3 CY26, Phase-2 commissioning, SAST filings, T2T exit.
Peers
FY26 consolidated; market data 9 Oct 2026. Desk-recomputed ratios. P/E FY26 = mcap ÷ FY26 PAT; EV = mcap + gross borrowings (Mar-26; cash not netted, so an upper bound); EV/EBITDA on FY26 EBITDA.
| Company | Rev FY26 | YoY (base) | EBITDA / % | PAT / % | RoE | P/E FY26 (TTM) | Mcap | Gross debt | EV/EBITDA | Moat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTAR Technologies | 876.2 | 29.6% (676.0) | 171.2 / 19.5% | 94.0 / 10.7% | 12.1% | 250.7x (~177x) | 23,563 | 377 | 140x (105x TTM) | Bloom hot-box qualification; NPCIL/ISRO decades; multi-sector precision |
| Azad Engineering | 603.0 | 31.9% (457) | 225.3 / 37.4% | 133.6 / 22.2% | 9.1% | 139.1x (134x) | 18,580 | 474 | 84.6x | GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, MHI, Baker Hughes airfoils; book ~6,500 (~11x rev); 93% exports |
| PTC Industries | 602.8 | 95.7% (308) | 134 / 22.2% | 101.6 / 16.9% | 7.2% | 362.9x (293x) | 36,857 | 261 | 277x | Only private Indian aero-grade Ti/superalloy melt-to-part (Aerolloy); Lucknow corridor |
| Unimech Aerospace | 240.5 | −1.0% (242.9) | 75.1 / 31.2% | 63.3 / 26.3% | 8.0% | 141.2x (124x) | 8,940 | 127 | 120.7x | Aero tooling and precision assemblies for global OEMs |
| Paras Defence & Space | 477 | 30.7% (365) | 122 / 25.6% | 89 / 18.7% | 12.4% | 111.8x (108x) | 9,953 | 27 | 81.8x | Defence optronics/electronics; space optics; ~debt-free |
| Dynamatic Technologies | 1,621 | 15.5% (1,404) | 186 / 11.5% | 32 / 2.0% | 6.7% | 284.6x (155x) | 9,108 | 638 | 52.4x | Airbus/Boeing/Bell/HAL aerostructures; hydraulics |
| Aequs (listed Dec 2025) | 1,230 | 33.0% (925) | 92 / 7.5% | (113) / loss | −10.0% | NM | 17,997 | 701 | 203x | Belagavi SEZ ecosystem; Airbus/Boeing/Safran; consumer drag |
MTAR's TTM P/E is shown as ~177x (Rs 7,660 ÷ TTM EPS Rs 43.39), the house value used throughout; Screener displays 173x. PTC company-defined EBITDA is 172.3 / 26.8% of total income. MTAR RoE = 94 ÷ avg equity 776. On a net-debt EV basis MTAR's FY26 EV/EBITDA is ~139x (Valuation tab).
| Q1 FY27 (Jun-26, Screener) | Sales | PAT |
|---|---|---|
| MTAR | 361 | 50 |
| Azad | 173 | 35 |
| PTC | 192 | 29 |
| Unimech | 108 | 28 |
| Paras | 128 | 21 |
| Dynamatic | 425 | 21 |
| Aequs | 396 | (53) |
| Leverage | Gross debt / equity (Mar-26) | Promoter holding |
|---|---|---|
| MTAR | 0.46x (377/823) | 29.36% |
| Azad | ~0.3x | 55.8% |
| PTC | n/a | 59.7% |
| Unimech | n/a | 79.8% |
| Paras | ~debt-free (27) | n/a |
| Dynamatic | highest absolute (638) | n/a |
Derived observations
- Growth: MTAR's FY26 +29.6% is mid-pack (PTC 95.7%, Aequs 33%, Azad 31.9%, Paras 30.7%); its FY27 ~80% guide would be the fastest (Azad 25%+).
- Margins: 19.5% is the lowest among profitable focused peers (Azad 37.4%, Unimech 31.2%, Paras 25.6%, PTC 22.2%); above only Dynamatic and Aequs. 3-yr avg OPM ~19% vs 27-29% in FY22-23.
- Returns: ROE ~12% is joint-highest with Paras; peers diluted by IPO/QIP equity.
- Valuation: FY26 P/E 251x is below PTC (363x) and Dynamatic (285x) but above Azad, Unimech, Paras. TTM ~177x is at a premium to all except PTC. EV/EBITDA 140x is third-richest (after PTC 277x and Aequs 203x).
- Forward illustration (desk): FY27E PAT ~Rs 210-230 cr (Rs 1,590 cr revenue; EBITDA ~22.5% ≈ 358; D&A ~50; interest ~60; tax 25%) → ~100-110x. At the verified 24% guide, PAT ~Rs 220-260 cr → ~90-105x.
- Scale: MTAR now has the largest quarterly revenue among focused precision players (ex-Dynamatic, Aequs).
Unlisted / segment competitors
- Godrej Enterprises (Precision Engg / Aerospace): fuelling machines, steam generators; ISRO Vikas and CE-20 hardware
- L&T Heavy Engineering / Precision: end-shields, calandria, PSLV boosters; HAL-L&T PSLV consortium
- Walchandnagar Industries: calandria, end-shields, ISRO motor casings
- HAL (cryogenic stages); Tata Advanced Systems; Bharat Forge / Kalyani Strategic Systems
- Ananth Technologies, Centum, Data Patterns (space electronics)
- Bloom chain: Bloom in-house assembly (Newark DE, Fremont), a Taiwanese second source, possible Mexico/Asia sources
Strengths and weaknesses vs each peer
| Peer | MTAR strengths | MTAR weaknesses |
|---|---|---|
| Azad Engineering | Faster near-term growth (~80% vs 25%+); multi-sector vs Azad's 81.5% energy/turbine; FY26 OCF +197 vs Azad standalone −123; WC ~59 days vs Azad 158 inventory + 164 receivable days; ROE 12% vs 9% | EBITDA margin about half (19.5% vs 37.4%), PAT margin under half (10.7% vs 22.2%); single customer 72.3% vs Azad's four OEMs; Azad backlog ~11x revenue vs MTAR ~3.3x FY27E (Jun-26 book ÷ guided ~Rs 1,577 cr); promoter 29.4% vs 55.8% |
| PTC Industries | Higher ROE (12% vs 7%); cheaper (251x vs 363x; 140x vs 277x EV/EBITDA); diversified civil customers | PTC owns upstream Ti/superalloy melting with higher pricing power; 96% growth; UP corridor; Rolls-Royce/Safran qualification; promoter 59.7% |
| Unimech Aerospace | Scale (876 vs 241); +30% vs −1% (Unimech hit by US tariffs); nuclear/space niches | Unimech margins higher (31% / 26%); lighter capex; promoter 79.8%; MTAR's US tariff exposure is larger in absolute terms |
| Paras Defence | Bigger revenue; heavier assemblies with higher entry barriers (nuclear cores, rocket engines) | Paras near debt-free, EBITDA 25.6%, domestic (less FX/tariff risk), P/E 112x vs 251x |
| Dynamatic | Much higher margins (19.5% vs 11.5%; 10.7% vs 2.0%); debt 377 vs 638; higher ROE | Larger aerostructure scale (1,621); long Airbus/Boeing/HAL contracts; more diversified customers |
| Aequs | Profitable vs loss-making; no consumer drag | Integrated Belagavi ecosystem; deeper Airbus/Safran ties; larger aerospace scale |
| Godrej / L&T (unlisted) | Nimble, focused, lower-cost in fuelling-machine heads, coolant channels, engine hardware; export-certified | Group balance sheets, EPC capability, bigger fabrication; can bid full packages; may capture more value under SHANTI |
Concall & Guidance
Six calls (Q4 FY25 to Q1 FY27), all checked against NSE-filed transcripts. Walk-the-talk ledger, contradictions, analyst Q&A and tone. Q2 FY27 not yet reported.
Where the narrative stands (Oct 2026)
"Inflection" phase. MD (30 Jul 2026): "the company is at an inflection point with each of our key business verticals." FY27 guide: ~80% ±5% revenue growth and 24% ±100 bps EBITDA. Verified in the Q1 FY27 transcript ("80% revenue growth ... with an EBITDA margin of 24% plus-minus 100 basis points") and deck; the May-26 call said "around 24%". "22%" readings in secondary summaries were transcription errors. A formal revisit is promised "by end of next quarter". Implied FY27 revenue Rs 1,533-1,621 cr; after Q1's Rs 360.7 cr, the remaining 9 months need ~Rs 391-420 cr/quarter vs Q1's Rs 361 cr. [Derived]
Quarter-by-quarter log
| Quarter / call | Results | Orders | Guidance / key statements | Tone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY25 call 23 May 2025 | Q4 rev 183.1 (+28.1%), EBITDA 34.2, PAT 13.7. FY25 rev 676.0 (+16.4%), EBITDA 120.9 (17.9%), PAT 52.9 (−5.7%), OCF 101. WC 229 days; LT debt 127; D/E 0.24x | FY25 inflow 720; book 979.4 (guided ~1,500; MD: Kaiga "getting deferred") | FY26: +25% "basic minimum ... worst case", 21% ±100 bps; clean energy +15-20%; A&D ~+80%; nuclear 19 → 60; products +20%; ~25% avg growth for 3 yrs. MNC aero Rs 9-10 cr FY24, 45-48 cr FY25, ≥Rs 145 cr FY26. Bloom FY25 "450 plus"; ~4,000 hot boxes. Nuclear Rs 700-800 cr "over next one, two quarters". GM fell from 67-68% (FY21) "basically the product mix". MD: "over the last one year there was some misses" | Cautious |
| Q1 FY26 call 6 Aug 2025 | Rev 156.6 (+22.1%), EBITDA 28.4 (18.1%), PAT 10.8; GM 54.2% (flattered by nuclear WIP build). WC 267 days; OCF ~−1 | Inflow 105.3; book 930.2 (down) | FY26 reaffirmed; Bloom "highest ever forecast", ~25% higher; run-rate Rs 100-110 cr/qtr → Rs 130-150 cr/qtr in FY27; Taiwanese second supplier exists, MTAR "major wallet share". Nuclear ~Rs 1,000 cr "in next 3 to 6 months"; 16 Kaiga packages quoted to MEIL. Aero FY26 cut to Rs 100-120 cr. Weatherford LTA; O&G plant "by June of next year". Capex Rs 100+ cr (~70% debt) | Cautious-confident |
| Q2 FY26 call 6 Nov 2025 | Rev 135.6 (CFO; Screener 136.2), EBITDA 17.0 (12.5%), PAT 4.2 (vs Arihant est. 19.8); GM 51.2%; OCF 39.8 | Inflow 497.7; book 1,296.6 (1,703 at 5 Nov) | Raised to 30-35% (>Rs 900 cr), H2 ~2x H1, ~21% EBITDA; FY26 book ~2,800; WC target 220. Dip = 3-3.5 weeks of US tariff talks ("if we absorb the tariff then we don't stand a chance"). Hot boxes 8k → 12k (Mar-26) → 16k (Sep-26) → 20k (Mar-27); historic "hardly 3,500" per yr. CFO: "total debt won't be more than INR250 crores". Fluence LTA by Q4 (Rs 200-400 cr). AMCA EoI with Adani. Aero ~Rs 500 cr in 4-5 yrs | Defensive / bullish outlook |
| Q3 FY26 call 30 Jan 2026 | Rev 278.0 (+59.3%), EBITDA 64.0 (23.0%), PAT 34.7; GM 46.1%; Labour-Codes Rs 3.77 cr; 9M OCF −22; WC 260 days (CFO) | Inflow 1,368.8; book 2,394.9; 9M fuel-cell orders 1,080 (Q3 645); Kaiga "INR500 crores plus" received | FY26 Rs 900 cr+, 21% ±1% (9M 19.2%); FY27 ~+50% with "much higher" margins; Q4 inflow 700-800. AEP USD 2.65 bn; "retain a majority market share"; 8,000 capacity at "100%"; 12k → 20k (Dec-26) → 30k; FY27 base 12,000 "conservatively". Nuclear FY27 "Rs 150 cr very comfortably". A&D book 325 (MNC ~120, space ~120, defence ~80). Weatherford Rs 150-200 cr (50-70 in FY27) | Confident |
| Q4 FY26 call 13 May 2026 | Q4 rev 306.1, EBITDA 61.8 (20.2%), PAT 44.3. FY26 rev 876.2, EBITDA 171.2 (19.5%, miss), PAT 94.0; GM 47.7%; OI ~25 (forex); OCF 196.9; ROCE 17.2%; WC 172 | FY26 inflow 2,453.3; Q4 481.6; book 2,581.9 vs 2,800 (~Rs 250 cr nuclear deferred) | FY27 raised 50% → "80% plus ... ±5%", EBITDA "around 24%"; book ~5,000; clean energy ~70%; capex Rs 250-300 cr (internal Rs 500-700 cr for ~Rs 5,000 cr revenue; FY30 "aspirational"). ~28% fixed costs → "at least 5%" leverage. SLB Rs 35 cr (~70% value-add); O&G Rs 450-500 cr; LCA Rs 130-150 cr pending; AMCA Rs 4 cr. Wallet share: "we are really not concerned". Fluence deferred. | Euphoric |
| Q1 FY27 call 30 Jul 2026 | Rev 360.7 (+130.4%), EBITDA 85.1 (23.6%), PBT 67.4, PAT 50.2; GM 45.61%; exports ~81%; WC 59 (inv. 145, rec. 82) | Inflow 2,895.1; book 5,143; +USD 85.86 mn amendment "today" | 80% / 24% ±100 bps, "pretty confident to do better"; WC ~100 at year-end; debt 423.6, investments 379, net debt 20-30; capex ~Rs 500 cr FY27-28 (~70% clean energy; Q1 Rs 30-35 cr; ~80 capitalised); Phase 2 Sep-Oct, Phase 3 ~Mar-27; O&G by Oct-26; ROCE 23% target. Nuclear book 684 + ~130 (incl. L1). A&D double; aero Rs 600-700 cr, products >Rs 1,000 cr by ~FY30. DC slowdown: "unwanted noise ... no issue at all". CFO: "very short cycle orders" | Confident, guarded (NDA) |
Walk-the-talk: guidance vs actual
| Item | Guided (when) | Actual | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 closing order book | ~Rs 1,500 cr (FY25) | Rs 979.4 cr | Miss |
| FY26 revenue growth | +25% (May-25) → 30-35%, >Rs 900 cr (Nov-25, Jan-26) | +29.6%, Rs 876.2 cr | Beat original; missed raised band/Rs 900 cr |
| FY26 EBITDA margin | 21% ±100 bps (all four FY26 calls) | 19.5% | Miss |
| H2 FY26 ≈ 2x H1 | Nov-25 | H1 292 / H2 584 = 2.0x | Met |
| FY26 closing book | ~Rs 2,800 cr (Nov-25, Jan-26) | Rs 2,581.9 cr | Miss (~8%) |
| Q4 FY26 inflow | Rs 700-800 cr (Jan-26) | Rs 481.6 cr | Miss |
| FY26 WC days | 200 → 220 | 172 (advance-aided) | Beat |
| Clean energy FY26 | +15-20% (May-25) | 417 → 615 (+48%) | Large beat |
| A&D FY26 | ~+80% (May/Aug-25) | 93 → 104 (+11%) | Large miss |
| Aerospace (MNC) FY26 | ~Rs 145 cr → 100-120 → ~100 | A&D segment 103.8 | Cut twice |
| Products FY26 | +20% minimum | 148 → 134 (−9%) | Miss |
| Nuclear FY26 revenue | Rs 60 cr (May-25) | Rs 23.6 cr | Miss |
| Nuclear orders (May-25) | Rs 700-800 cr "next one, two quarters" | Kaiga Rs 504 cr booked Dec-25 (2-3 qtrs later); book ~Rs 650-684 cr by Mar/Jun-26 | Late, short |
| Nuclear orders (Aug/Nov-25) | ~Rs 1,000 cr in 3-6 months → ~Rs 500 cr Kaiga + ~Rs 800 cr by FY-end | Kaiga Rs 504 cr booked Q3 FY26 (MEIL, 6 & 18 Dec 2025); nuclear book ~Rs 679 cr at Mar-26 | Repeatedly late |
| Fluence BESS | Proto-2 by Q2 FY26; LTA "this quarter or next"; Rs 200-400 cr over 2-3 yrs | Deferred; dropped from list (May-26) | Miss |
| Oil & gas plant | "June 2026" (Aug/Nov-25) → Jun/Sep-26 → Sep-26 | "Operational by Oct-26"; deck Q3 FY27 | Slip ~4+ months |
| Total debt ceiling | "won't be more than INR250 crores" (CFO, Nov-25) | Rs 369.2 cr (Mar-26); Rs 423.6 cr (Jun-26) | Miss |
| Bloom run-rate FY27 | Rs 130-150 cr/qtr (Aug-25) | Q1 FY27 clean energy Rs 220.8 cr | Beat |
| Q4 FY26 fuel cells | ~Rs 250 cr (Jan-26) | Whole segment ~Rs 217 cr | Miss (≥13%) |
| Hot box 16,000 units | Sep-26 (Nov-25) | Phase 2 "Sep-Oct 2026"; figures now NDA | Slip / opacity |
| LCA Mk1A order | Rs 130-150 cr expected Q4 FY26 | Still pending | Late |
| FY27 nuclear revenue | "≥Rs 150 cr very comfortably" (Jan-26) | Q1 FY27 Rs 3.2 cr; ramp "from Q2 onwards" | At risk |
| FY27 revenue growth | ~50% (Nov-25/Jan-26) → 80% ±5% (May-26) | Q1 +130% | On track |
| FY27 EBITDA | ~24% (May-26) → 24% ±100 bps (Jul-26) | Q1 23.6% | Within band |
| FY27 closing book | ~Rs 5,000 cr (May-26) | Rs 5,143 cr at Q1 | Achieved early |
| Capex envelope | >100 (FY26) → ~150 (FY26-27) → 250-300 (FY27-28) → ~500 (FY27-28) | n/a | ~3x in 8 months |
Pattern [Analyst View]
Reliable on top-line and order-book direction when Bloom drives it. Unreliable on non-Bloom verticals (A&D, products, nuclear timing, Fluence, O&G plant), on margins (missed the FY26 band) and on the debt ceiling. Guidance was raised after a weak quarter (Q2 FY26) and again after big Bloom orders (Q4 FY26). The FY27 margin band was not softened: it was stated as 24% ±100 bps in Jul-26. GM path: 54.2% (Q1 FY26) → 51.2% → 46.1% → ~44-45% (Q4) → 45.6% (Q1 FY27); EBITDA gains are operating leverage.
Contradictions and data conflicts
| Issue | Status |
|---|---|
| FY27 EBITDA guide (22% vs 24%) | Resolved: 24% ±100 bps (transcript and deck) |
| Kaiga 5&6 timing | Resolved: Rs 194 cr (6 Dec) + Rs 310 cr (18 Dec 2025) from MEIL = Q3 FY26. The Q1 FY27 "highest ever nuclear inflow" remark referred to "the last quarter". Mar-26 book ~679 vs Jun-26 ~684 is consistent with no fresh Kaiga in Q1. |
| Q1 FY27 inflow arithmetic | Blanket POs 2,278.96 (14 May NSE filing) + 467 + ~36 early-Q1 = ~2,782 of 2,895.1; ~Rs 113 cr residual. Roll-forward 2,581.9 + 2,895.1 − 360.7 = ~5,116 vs 5,143 reported (~Rs 27 cr unexplained; possibly FX revaluation). [Derived] |
| "Rs 800 cr on call day" | Resolved: the 30 Jul NSE-filed amendment (+USD 85.86 mn / ~Rs 819.94 cr). The "Rs 3,200 cr" cited by an analyst was the amended PO total (CFO: "not a full order... a partial communication"). Another analyst cited a Rs 5,500 cr book. |
| Dec-25 WC days | Unresolved: 260 (CFO, Q3 call), 266 (deck), 267 (CFO, Q4 call), 278 (MD, Q4 call) |
| Blanket PO firmness | Call-off dependent and softer than fixed-quantity orders; customer unnamed (presumed Bloom) |
| FY30 Rs 5,000 cr revenue | Media call it a target; management said "aspirational", "a hope" |
| Debt vs WC | Debt 370 → 423.6 while WC fell to 59 days; net debt only ~20-30 because of Rs 379 cr investments (likely parked advances) |
| Nuclear PHWR share | "60% to 70% share of orders" appears in an [inaudible]-tagged passage; attribution uncertain (may be the analyst) |
| Q1 OCF Rs 247.69 cr | Comparator Rs 191.66 cr = FY26 standalone full-year OCF; unaudited |
Analyst Q&A that reveals hidden risk
- Bloom dependence not quantified: no market share, Phase 2/3 numbers (NDA) or Bloom revenue share; DC capex delays called "unwanted noise".
- Capacity tied to "a single large customer" (Q4 FY26).
- Margins: pressed on the ~190 bps QoQ GM fall; the answer leaned on operating leverage.
- WC sustainability: management itself guides 59 → ~100 days.
- Nuclear timing: "cannot assure timing" of NPCIL tenders; Mahi Banswara via EPC next fiscal; PFBR follow-on with no firm timing.
- Conversion: SLB, Weatherford, IAI, MNC ball screws and AMCA must convert from first articles; data-centre "meaningful ramp-up not expected until next year".
- Execution: three concurrent ramps (fuel-cell Phase 2/3, O&G, data centre) plus hiring/automation.
- Capex returns: asset-turn target wobbled between 4-5x and 6x in the same call.
- Disclosure gaps: no per-platform content values, tender sizes or new-product development cost.
| Call | Tone |
|---|---|
| Q4 FY25 | Cautious; guidance "conservative" |
| Q1 FY26 | Cautiously optimistic; nuclear promise over-reached; WC stress |
| Q2 FY26 | Defensive on results ("temporary dip"), aggressive on outlook |
| Q3 FY26 | Confident; first operating leverage |
| Q4 FY26 | Euphoric (50% → 80% in-call raise); defensive on margin miss |
| Q1 FY27 | Confident but guarded (NDA); dismissive of macro concerns |
Recurring themes: Bloom capacity ramp; "H2 stronger than H1"; nuclear "next quarter"; A&D "volume production starting"; new O&G/aero customers; operating leverage; WC normalisation.
Order-book visibility
| Metric | FY25 | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 | Q1 FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Order inflow (Rs cr) | 720 | 105.3 | 497.7 | 1,368.8 | 481.6 | 2,895.1 |
| Closing book (Rs cr) | 979.4 | 930.2 | 1,296.6 | 2,394.9 | 2,581.9 | 5,143.3 |
| Book-to-bill | ~1.07x | - | - | - | FY26 ~2.8x | ~8.0x (qtr) |
Book ÷ FY26 revenue = 5.9x; ÷ FY27E guided (~Rs 1,577 cr) = ~3.3x. After Jun-26: +Rs 819.94 cr (30 Jul) and +Rs 126.74 cr NPCIL (26 Aug), so ~Rs 6,090 cr gross of Q2 execution. Rs 467 cr: 50% by 20 Mar 2027, rest by 20 Jun 2027. Most of the 30 Jul increment executes "next year". Q2 FY26 post-quarter orders ~Rs 480 cr (not itemised); Q4 FY26 small orders incl. ~Rs 34 cr clean energy + aerospace; early Q1 FY27 ~Rs 36 cr.
News flow and watch items
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2025 | K Shalini buys 1,05,000 sh; stock −3.7% to Rs 1,416 (mcap Rs 4,388 cr) |
| Feb 2026 | CS resigned; successor 2 Feb; record Rs 3,686 on 10 Feb after Q3 (+10%) |
| Mar 2026 | New cost and internal auditors for 3 yrs from FY27 |
| 19-27 May 2026 | Promoter sales days after the Rs 2,279 cr order (~Rs 119 cr for the three 20-21 May sellers Vamshidhar, Kavitha and Manogna; ~Rs 185 cr across 19-27 May incl. Pranay and Kalpana [Derived from the insider table, Governance tab]); stock later Rs 5,457 (21 Jul) |
| 11-12 Jun 2026 | Crusoe pause; MTAR "received no communication on any project delay"; +12% |
| 25 Jun 2026 | Moved to T2T |
| Jul 2026 | Oracle-linked DC delay; lower circuit 6 of 7 sessions; ASM Stage IV. Company: "order book remains healthy and committed business continues to be intact"; no undisclosed proceedings |
| 7 Jul 2026 | ICRA upgrade to A+ |
| 14 Jul 2026 | A Manogna pledge release, 1,25,000 sh (0.41%) |
| 30 Jul 2026 | 5% upper circuit after Q1 (ASM band) |
| 7-16 Sep 2026 | 7 Sep: 5% upper circuit on Bloom S&P 500 inclusion (Rs 7,519). 15 Sep: 5% lower circuit (Rs 6,947); 16 Sep a further −2.2% (Rs 6,792). Promoter sales on 4 Sep (Shalini 18,000) and 16 Sep (Leelavathi 20,000), disclosed 23 and 28 Sep |
| 21-28 Sep 2026 | 21 Sep: NSE intimation of 24 Sep one-on-one/group investor meetings (Mumbai). 23 Sep: trading window for designated persons and their immediate relatives closed from 1 Oct until 48 hours after Q2 FY27 results. 24-25 Sep: −3.2% / −2.1% on Oracle's Project Jupiter force-majeure notice (see Industry tab). 28 Sep: AGM passed all six resolutions (Rs 2,000 cr borrowing limit) |
| 29 Sep-1 Oct 2026 | 29 Sep: 5% upper circuit to Rs 7,426 on ~3.5 lakh shares (~4x the month's typical volume). 30 Sep: locked at the 5% upper circuit all day (Rs 7,797). [Inferred] Both moves track Bloom's rebound after Oracle and Bloom reaffirmed the 2.4 GW contract; no MTAR-specific trigger was filed. 1 Oct: opened at the upper band (Rs 8,186.5), fell to Rs 7,525.5 intraday and closed flat at Rs 7,797 |
| 6 Oct 2026 | CRISIL ESG 63 "Strong" (unsolicited; NSE disclosure). Last close before publication: Rs 7,849.5 (8 Oct), +2.5% vs the Rs 7,660 reference price used in this report |
| 20 Sep-9 Oct 2026 | No order filings, broker rating/target changes, ICRA actions, management changes or new insider/SAST disclosures for this period; Q2 FY27 board-meeting date not yet filed |
Q2 FY27 watch (~late Oct/Nov): Bloom Q3 CY26 results (~27 Oct) and any Project Jupiter schedule change; guide revisit above 80%; Phase 2 and O&G commissioning; Sep-26 book reconciliation (+819.94 + 126.74); GM below 46%; WC drift 59 → 100; Bloom/Crusoe/Oracle newsflow; promoter sales.
SWOT & Risks
SWOT, full 21-item risk register and red-flag checklist. Bloom concentration uses the verified 72.3% (AR note 40(c)) throughout.
Strengths
- 55-year qualification with NPCIL, ISRO, DRDO, IGCAR/BHAVINI; one of top 2-3 private PHWR reactor-core suppliers
- Vertically integrated: 600+ CNCs, vacuum brazing, NADCAP special processes, clean-room integration, NABL labs
- Majority hot-box supplier and sole SOEC electrolyser supplier to Bloom; 14+ yr relationship; multi-year forecast
- Order book Rs 5,143 cr (~4.8x TTM revenue); ICRA A+; clean audits; independent chair
- No equity dilution since IPO; ROE among the best in the peer set
Weaknesses
- 72.3% of revenue from one customer; 82% exports; ~72% of FY25 sales US-bound (ICRA)
- Build-to-print, no IP; gross margin down from 63.9% to 45.6%; EBITDA margin about half of Azad's
- 5-yr FCF −Rs 194 cr; gross cash cycle 360-510 days; advance-funded OCF
- Weak walk-the-talk on non-Bloom verticals; debt ceiling broken
- Promoter 29.36% and falling; revolving pledges
Opportunities
- Bloom CY26 guide USD 3.9-4.2 bn; Oracle 2.8 GW, AEP 1 GW; capacity to ~30,000 units
- India nuclear 100 GW by 2047; 10 fleet PHWRs (Rs 250-400 cr content each); refurbishment; SMR/BSR; SHANTI Act
- A&D doubling (LCA Mk1A, AMCA, IAI 15-yr pipeline); space privatisation
- SLB data centre (~8x), Weatherford O&G (Rs 450-500 cr), ball screws to MNCs
- Products >Rs 1,000 cr and aerospace Rs 600-700 cr by ~FY30 (management)
Threats
- Bloom dual-sourcing (Taiwanese supplier), in-sourcing or deferral (FY24 precedent)
- US tariff swings; AI data-centre pauses (Crusoe, Oracle)
- Conglomerates and foreign vendors entering nuclear post-SHANTI
- Sector capex supercycle compressing pricing by FY28-30
- Valuation de-rating (~177x TTM); surveillance; QIP risk
Risk register
| # | Risk | Category | Severity | Explanation | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Customer concentration (Bloom) | Business | High | Bloom = 72.3% of FY26 revenue; clean energy 70.2% of revenue and 66.7% of the Jun-26 book. Large May/Jul-26 export POs likely Bloom. A pause, insourcing, second-sourcing, inventory correction (FY24) or tax-credit loss flows straight through. Bloom shares fell ~38-46% in a month to end-Jul 2026. Sep 2026 showed the second-order exposure again: Oracle's force-majeure notice on Project Jupiter (24 Sep; gas pipeline slipped to Feb 2027, air permit pending) moved MTAR −5% over two sessions before Oracle and Bloom reaffirmed the 2.4 GW contract. | Bloom backlog ~USD 20 bn; multi-year forecast; diversification into nuclear, defence, O&G, DC; "no customer has signalled cuts" |
| 2 | US tariff / trade | Macro / Regulatory | High | 82% of FY26 revenue is exports; ICRA (Oct 2025): ~72% of FY25 sales were exports to the US. US rates swung through 2025-26; Unimech's FY26 −1% is a sector precedent; Fluence lost to battery duties. Discrepancy: a Q4 FY25 results summary put FY25 exports at only 64% of revenue, below both ICRA's ~72% US share of sales and Bloom's 71.6% revenue share. That only reconciles if some Bloom billing was domestic or the 64% is misreported; unreconciled (the ICRA ~72% is consistent with Bloom's 71.6% share). FY26 is consistent: exports 82-83%; KAM split export Rs 717.9 cr / domestic Rs 147.4 cr; Bloom 72.3%. | Pass-through/DDP clauses; Bloom's US-sourcing needs; possible trade deal; ICRA Stable |
| 3 | Execution and capacity ramp | Execution | High | ~80% growth to ~Rs 1,590 cr needs Phase 2 (Sep-Oct 26), Phase 3 (Mar-27), O&G plant and an H2 nuclear ramp on time, at ~177x TTM | Phase 1 commissioned; Q1 delivered 23% of guide; Bloom ramp record; ~Rs 80 cr CWIP capitalised in Q1 |
| 4 | Valuation / sentiment | Market | High | TTM P/E ~177x, FY26 251x, P/B ~29x, EV/EBITDA FY26 ~139-140x; range Rs 1,866-8,715; −34% in Jul-26; T2T/ASM | TTM PAT 133 vs FY25 53; forward P/E ~90-105x on guide |
| 5 | Gross-margin deterioration | Business | Med | 49.4% → 47.7% → 45.6% on material-heavy fuel-cell mix, consumables, freight; OPM 29% (FY22) → 18% (FY25) | Operating leverage; higher-margin nuclear/defence mix in H2 |
| 6 | Rising debt and finance costs | Financial | Med | Borrowings 96 (FY22) → 177 (FY25) → 369 (FY26, AR) → 423.6 (Jun-26). D/E ~0.45x; Q1 finance cost ~Rs 16 cr (2.7x YoY). Total debt/EBITDA ~2.2x FY26 (377/171); ~1.7x on TTM EBITDA (FY26 debt / 228); ~1.9x on Jun-26 gross debt / TTM EBITDA (423.6/228). Rs 500 cr capex on accruals + debt | CFO net debt ~Rs 20-30 cr after Rs 379 cr investments; OCF 197; ICRA A+ (trigger now cover <5x) |
| 7 | Working-capital reversal | Financial | Med | WC 172 → 59 days, receivables 140 → 82, via advances; inventory days 145 still high; could revert to 100-150 | Target ~100 days at FY27-end; improved terms with key customer |
| 8 | Weak cash conversion / no dividend | Financial / Governance | Med | FCF −120.9, −101.0, −36.8, +0.9, +63.3 (FY22-26; cumulative −194.3); no dividend since FY22 | FY26 FCF positive; strong Q1 OCF claim (unaudited) |
| 9 | Promoter selling | Governance | Med | 39.14% → 29.36%; repeated sales May-Sep 2026 (Vamshidhar 1,00,000; Pranay 60,000; Praval 55,000; Manogna 30,000; Kalpana 27,802; Kavitha 42,741; Madhavi 17,000; Shalini 18,000; Leelavathi 20,000). Dispersed family; theoretical takeover target; overhang | Individually <0.35% of equity; Kavitha Reddy pledge release of 1,77,000 sh with 360 One (released by end-Jun 2026; revised disclosure filed 9 Jul 2026); FII 12.2% → 24.8% in two quarters |
| 10 | Nuclear/defence order deferral | Business / Execution | Med | FY26 book missed 2,800 on deferrals; nuclear 2.7% of revenue vs 26% of Mar-26 book; policy/budget dependent | PHWR fleet pipeline; nuclear book ~Rs 815 cr incl. expected |
| 11 | SHANTI-era competition | Regulatory / Business | Med | Private/JV operators and global vendors bring supply chains; L&T, Godrej, Tata, Adani, Reliance bundle packages | Qualified-vendor status; SMR/BSR enlarge pie |
| 12 | Technology substitution | Business | Med | DC power could shift to turbines, SMRs or other chemistries; Bloom redesign could cut content or force requalification | Co-development; multi-sector capability |
| 13 | Currency | Macro | Low-Med | Net long USD; INR ~95.5/USD tailwind could reverse; FY26 OI mainly forex gains | Imported alloys hedge (30-35% imports); USD packing credit |
| 14 | Commodity / raw material | Macro | Low-Med | Imported Inconel, Ti, Zr alloys; critical-mineral export controls; Red Sea/Iran freight (oil above USD 100 in Oct 2026) | Pass-through; customer-directed and free-issue materials |
| 15 | Interest rate | Financial | Low | Floating WC and term debt ~Rs 424 cr | A+/A1 access; USD EPC at 4.69% |
| 16 | Key-person dependency | Governance / Execution | Med | MD-centric customer relationships; founding family | Professional CFO; long-tenured engineering cadre |
| 17 | Israel / Middle East exports | Macro / ESG | Low-Med | IAI, Rafael, Elbit exposure: ESG screens, shipping, payments; Jun-25 receivables delayed from "conflict-affected regions" | Small share; G2G licences |
| 18 | Subsidiary / RPT | Governance | Low-Med | Gee Pee/Magnatar merger pending; external RPTs ~Rs 0.1 cr each (Shalini rent, Sasidhar rent, Nettlinx); Gee Pee H2 Rs 4.93 cr vs AR Rs 2.44 cr unreconciled | Merger simplifies; audit-committee oversight |
| 19 | Litigation / tax | Regulatory | Low | Contingent liabilities Rs 2.27 cr; Gee Pee guarantee nil (was Rs 19.5 cr); capital commitments Rs 160.0 cr; BG/LC Rs 149.9 cr | Unmodified audit; clean ICRA upgrade |
| 20 | Dilution | Financial | Low-Med | No raise since 2021, but Rs 500 cr capex, high price and peer QIPs make one plausible | Accruals + debt stance; equity ~Rs 823 cr |
| 21 | ESG / safety | ESG | Low | Nuclear-grade QA, dual-use export controls, heavy-fab safety; Bloom runs largely on natural gas | AS9100/nuclear QA; CRISIL ESG 63 |
Red-flag checklist
| Red flag | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Rising debt | Yes (moderate) | 177 → 369 → 423.6; borrowing limit Rs 2,000 cr; offset by ~Rs 379 cr investments |
| Margin deterioration | Partial | GM down three periods; OPM 18% (FY25) → 20% (FY26) → 24% (Q1 FY27) but below FY22-23 |
| Auditor concerns | Not found | S.R. Batliboi unmodified; single KAM revenue recognition; no tampering |
| Related-party abuse | Not found | External RPTs immaterial |
| Promoter selling | Yes | Continuous Feb-Sep 2026; lowest promoter holding in peer set |
| Pledge | Minor | 3.52% of promoter holding (Jun-26); est. ~0.8% of equity now |
| Dilution | No (so far) | Watch for QIP |
| Customer loss | Not found; concentration | Bloom PO upsized +USD 85.86 mn; FY24 destocking precedent |
| Litigation / tax | Not found | Rs 2.27 cr contingent |
| Commodity / FX / rates | Inherent | 82% USD exports; imported alloys; floating debt |
| Tech obsolescence | Watch | Bloom vs turbines/SMRs; build-to-print redesign risk |
| Key-person | Moderate | Family-led, MD-centric |
| Surveillance | Yes | T2T (25 Jun 2026); LT-ASM Stage IV |
| Guidance reliability | Mixed | FY26 30-35% → 29.6%; book 2,800 → 2,582; FY27 50% → 80% within a quarter |
Bottom line (risk view)
The tailwinds are real (AI on-site power, 100 GW nuclear and SHANTI, space privatisation, defence indigenisation), and nuclear/space qualification is a durable niche. But the P&L is effectively a leveraged derivative of one US customer shipped into a volatile tariff regime. Margins are structurally about half of Azad's and Unimech's. Promoter skin-in-the-game is thin and declining, and ~177x TTM leaves no room for a slip. Monitor: Bloom results and any dual-sourcing; Phase 2/3 dates; US tariff rate; Mahi Banswara orders; GM; WC days; promoter holding; any QIP.
Valuation
Price Rs 7,660 (9 Oct 2026, ~09:54 IST; Screener). 3.076 cr shares. Beta (5Y) 1.39. 52-week change ~+299% (StockAnalysis); 52-week range Rs 1,866-8,715.
| Metric | Current | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | ~Rs 23,563 cr | 3.076 cr x Rs 7,660 |
| Enterprise value | ~Rs 23,720 cr | Mcap + FY26 net debt ~Rs 159 cr (range Rs 151-233 cr by definition; StockAnalysis EV Rs 237.3 bn) |
| P/E (TTM EPS Rs 43.39) | ~177x | Screener displays 173x; StockAnalysis 181x |
| P/E (FY26 EPS Rs 30.57) | ~251x | - |
| P/E (forward, consensus) | ~77x | StockAnalysis |
| P/E FY27E (PAT Rs 220-260 cr on guide) | ~90-105x | [Est.] |
| P/E on MOSL FY28E (EPS ~Rs 150) / JM FY29E (~Rs 223) | ~51x / ~34-35x | [Est.] implied from targets |
| P/B (BV Rs 267.4) | ~28.6x | Screener 29.1x |
| EV / EBITDA (TTM Rs 228 cr) | ~104x | Net-debt EV; peer table shows 105x on gross-debt EV; StockAnalysis 106.8x |
| EV / EBITDA (FY26 Rs 171.2 cr) | ~139x | Peer table on gross-debt EV: 140x |
| EV / EBITDA FY27E (Rs 353-405 cr at 24% ±100 bps on Rs 1,533-1,621 cr) | ~59-67x | Implied from guidance |
| EV / Sales (TTM) | ~22x | - |
| P / FCF (FY26) | ~370-380x | StockAnalysis 381x |
| FCF yield (FY26) | ~0.27% | - |
| Dividend yield / buybacks | 0% / none ever | Last dividend FY22 |
Versus own history
| Year-end | Price (approx.) | P/E | P/B | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar-2024 | ~Rs 1,680 | 92.3x | 7.7x | ~47x |
| Mar-2025 | ~Rs 1,280-1,400 | 74.5x | 5.4x | ~34x |
| Mar-2026 | ~Rs 3,690 | ~121x | 13.8x | ~67x |
| 3-year average | ~96x | ~9.0x | ~49x | |
| Current vs 3-yr average | Rs 7,660 | ~1.8x | ~3.2x | ~2.1x |
Mar-24/Mar-25 P/E and P/B from Value Research year-end data, prices back-solved; Mar-26 from VR P/B 13.81x (19 Mar 2026). Earlier VR: P/E 68.4x (FY21), 88.3x (FY22), 47.0x (FY23); P/B 6.6x, 10.4x, 7.8x. Pocketful EV/EBITDA series (labels inconsistent): 31.9 / 56.0 / 31.8 / 46.3 / 33.4; 5-yr avg P/E ~74x, P/B ~7.6x. Treat averages as ±10%. Price markers: ~Rs 6,248 on Q4 FY26 results day; ~Rs 7,532 average on late-May promoter sales.
Peer multiples
| Company | P/E FY26 | P/E TTM | EV/EBITDA FY26 | EBITDA % | RoE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTAR | 250.7x | ~177x | 140x | 19.5% | 12.1% |
| Azad | 139.1x | 134x | 84.6x | 37.4% | 9.1% |
| PTC Industries | 362.9x | 293x | 277x | 22.2% | 7.2% |
| Unimech | 141.2x | 124x | 120.7x | 31.2% | 8.0% |
| Paras | 111.8x | 108x | 81.8x | 25.6% | 12.4% |
| Dynamatic | 284.6x | 155x | 52.4x | 11.5% | 6.7% |
| Aequs | NM | NM | 203x | 7.5% | −10.0% |
Peer EV/EBITDA uses gross-debt EV (upper bound), so MTAR shows 140x here vs ~139x on net-debt EV above.
Targets and scenarios
| Source | Value (Rs) | vs Rs 7,660 | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| JM Financial (high, named) | 9,375 | +22.4% | 42x FY29E |
| Motilal Oswal | 9,000 | +17.5% | 60x FY28E |
| Arihant Capital (low, named) | 8,294 | +8.3% | n.d. |
| Aggregator mean / high / low | 9,200 / 10,240 / 8,000 | +20.1% / +33.7% / +4.4% | MarketScreener |
| Technical (Univest) | bull 10,000 / bear 5,500 | +31% / −28% | Not a recommendation |
| Aamara base | 6,750-8,250 | −12% / +8% | 45-55x FY28E EPS ~Rs 150 [Analyst View] |
| Aamara bull | ~9,000-10,800 | +17% / +41% | FY28E EPS ~Rs 165-180 on beat, 55-60x (9,075-10,800) |
| Aamara bear | ~4,500-5,250 | −41% / −31% | 30-35x FY28E ~Rs 150 on Bloom wobble or derating; FY24-style miss would go lower |
| Engage zone | ≤~5,300-6,000 | −22% / −31% | ~35-40x FY28E |
Valuation read [Analyst View]
The stock trades at ~2x its own 3-year P/E and EV/EBITDA averages and ~3x its P/B average. The re-rating already prices in execution of the Rs 5,143 cr book and margins at 23-25%. On the sell-side's own numbers, upside to targets is +8% to +22%, which depends on FY28-29 estimates being met and 40-60x being paid for a build-to-print supplier with 72% from one customer. With FCF yield below 0.3% and beta 1.39, risk/reward is balanced to negative at today's price. Hence TRACK, not ENGAGE.
Sources
De-duplicated source list. All accessed up to 9 Oct 2026. Company PDFs were verified from NSE archives where available.