Aamara Capital13 Oct 2026 · For internal use only

Paradeep Phosphates Ltd

NSE: PARADEEP · BSE: 543530 · ISIN INE088F01024 · Fertilisers (DAP/NPK/Urea) · Adventz–OCP group
₹142CMP 13-Oct-26
₹14,716 CrMkt Cap
13.7xTTM P/E
~9.2xEV/EBITDA

Paradeep Phosphates Ltd — Snapshot

Data as of 13 Oct 2026 (CMP ~₹142, 103.82 Cr shares post-MCFL merger). Latest reported quarter: Q1 FY27 (Jun-26; board 28 Jul 2026, call 31 Jul 2026). Q2 FY27 results due by 14 Nov 2026 — no board-meeting intimation as of 13 Oct (trading window closed since 1 Oct 2026). ₹ Cr consolidated unless stated.

FY26 Revenue₹21,826 Cr+28.7% YoY (vs restated FY25)
FY26 PAT₹997 Cr+50% · TTM ₹1,073 Cr
FY26 EBITDA margin10.1%ex-OI ₹2,208 Cr · Co. ₹2,259 Cr
RoE / RoCE15.8% / 13.6%FY26 (AR) · TTM RoE ~16.2%

Quick Verdict Scorecard

BusinessMediumIntegrated No.3
ManagementMediumRPT-heavy
FinancialWeakCash conversion
ValuationAttractivevs history/peers
OverallNeutralPositive bias

Market data

ItemValue
CMP (13 Oct 2026)₹142 (₹141.77 close, −2.0% d/d)
Market cap₹14,716 Cr
Shares outstanding103.82 Cr (1,03,81,70,594; FV ₹10)
52-week high / low₹182 (Oct-25) / ₹99.7 (Mar-26)
All-time high~₹234 (Aug–Sep 2025)
1-yr / 6-mo / 3-yr CAGR−19% to −20% / +39% / +29%
Listed27 May 2022 (IPO ₹42)
Gross debt Mar-26 / Jun-26₹6,906 Cr [Fact] / ~₹6,500 Cr (mgmt)
Net debt Mar-26₹6,497 Cr
EV~₹20,800–21,200 Cr
P/E TTM / P/B / EV/EBITDA13.7x / 2.17x / ~9.1–9.3x
Dividend (FY26) / yield₹1.50 / 1.06%
RatingsICRA AA- (Stable)/A1+; CRISIL A1+ (CP)
Consensus TP (median)~₹160 (+13%); PL Accumulate ₹158

Company overview

ItemDetail
Incorporated24 Dec 1981 (GoI–Nauru JV); privatised 2002 (ZMPPL)
Registered / corporate officeBhubaneswar (Bayan Bhawan) / Adventz Centre, Bengaluru
PromoterZuari Maroc Phosphates (ZMPPL; 50:50 ZACL/Adventz–OCP Morocco) 50.37%; group 57.86%
Chairman / MD & CEOSaroj Kumar Poddar (80) / N. Suresh Krishnan
PlantsParadeep (Odisha), Goa, Mangalore (ex-MCFL), Mahad (SSP)
Capacity3.9 MMTPA (AR, incl. Mahad SSP 0.2) / 3.7 MMTPA (decks, excl. Mahad)
Employees2,163 permanent + 4,945 contract
Distribution6,155 billed dealers (~7,000 partners), 1 lakh+ retailers, 669 stock points, 18 states, 12 Mn+ farmers
RankNo.3 complex fertiliser maker (CRISIL); share ~14% FY26 (12% FY25)
AuditorB S R & Co. LLP (KPMG); mandatory rotation at 45th AGM (2027)
Plain English: Paradeep Phosphates makes and trades phosphatic and nitrogenous fertilisers — DAP, a family of NPK complexes led by 20:20:0:13 ("Jai Kisaan Navratna"), urea, SSP and TSP — from a port-based, acid-integrated complex at Paradeep plus urea/NPK plants at Goa and Mangalore. Roughly 53% of revenue is Government of India subsidy (NBS for P&K; NUP for urea), rock phosphate and phosphoric acid come almost entirely from co-promoter OCP (Morocco), and margins are set by the gap between subsidy-plus-capped-MRP and global sulphur/ammonia/acid prices. After absorbing Mangalore Chemicals (MCFL) in Oct-2025 (appointed date 1 Apr 2024) it is a ₹22,000 Cr-revenue, ~4.2 MT-volume business.
Comparability flag [Fact]: FY25 and Q2 FY25 onwards are restated to include MCFL (Ind AS 103 acquisition method, appointed date 1 Apr 2024; auditor Emphasis of Matter). FY22–FY24 and Q1 FY25 are PPL-only, so FY25 growth (+46.5%) is not like-for-like. Shareholding % drops in the Dec-25 quarter reflect 27.2% dilution (22.16 Cr new shares), not selling — flows are analysed in share counts in Tab 7.

Analyst Notes

[Analyst View] — first-person read, Aamara Capital, 13 Oct 2026

What just happened. Paradeep has turned into India's No.3 complex-fertiliser player at real scale: the MCFL merger took capacity from 3.0 to 3.7 MMTPA (3.9 incl. Mahad SSP), FY26 delivered ₹21,826 Cr revenue, ₹2,259 Cr company EBITDA (₹5,364/t vs ₹4,449/t) and ₹997 Cr PAT, and RoE has recovered from 2.8% in FY24 to ~16% TTM. Q1 FY27 was a beat — revenue ₹6,124 Cr (+36%), EBITDA ₹742 Cr incl. other income / ₹720 Cr ex-OI (11.8% margin), PAT ₹393 Cr — roughly 60% above consensus EBITDA. CRISIL now estimates ~14% share of complex fertilisers in FY26.

But the Q1 number is not the run-rate. Management itself said the ~₹7,000/t was "mainly on account of the stock what we have got at the beginning of this year" — low-cost opening inventory. Full-year FY27 guidance stays ~₹5,000/t, which, after Q1, implies only ~₹4,250–4,450/t for Q2–Q4 [Est.; ~₹4,390/t at FY26's 42.1 LMT volume]. Sulphur averaged ~$850/t in Q1 and is $1,000+/t now, bought entirely on spot; China's phosphate and sulphuric-acid export curbs and the Hormuz disruption have pushed the phos-acid plant to ~70% utilisation, with the gap filled by lower-margin trading (~0.5 MT of Rabi imports secured). Consensus FY27E EPS of ~₹8.6 is already ~14% below FY26.

What the market is pricing. At ₹142 the stock is on 13.7x TTM P/E, ~9.2x EV/EBITDA and 2.17x book — at or below its own merger-adjusted 3-year medians (16.2x P/E, 9.2x EV/EBITDA) and at roughly half Coromandel's multiples (28.8x / 15.8x). It is −20% YoY and ~40% off the 2025 peak, but +39% off the March-2026 war low. FPIs have exited (53 Mn shares, 5.1%), domestic MFs have bought (+67 Mn shares off the Sep-25 trough). The street is Buy-leaning but unexcited: median target ~₹160, PL Capital Accumulate ₹158, Elara Buy ₹156.

The problem is cash, not profit. Over FY22–26 cumulative PAT was ₹2,460 Cr, but cumulative operating cash flow was −₹348 Cr and FCF −₹3,142 Cr. FY26 OCF was −₹1,012 Cr on record profit: inventory +₹2,071 Cr (78→105 days) and subsidy receivable +₹1,490 Cr (₹2,357→₹3,847 Cr; ₹4,600 Cr by Jun-26). Gross debt went ₹2,954→₹6,906 Cr; net debt/EBITDA ~2.85–2.9x against CRISIL's 3x downgrade trigger. Q1 FY27 helped (debt −₹700 Cr to ~₹6,500 Cr, OCF positive), but H2 brings $1,000+ sulphur, Rabi imports and the first draws of a ₹3,500–3,600 Cr, 70%-debt-funded expansion. The Feb-26 promise to hold debt near ₹5,400 Cr was broken within a quarter.

Governance is the second discount. ~₹8,227 Cr of FY26 purchases (~38% of revenue) went to OCP-group entities with no tendering (Kofert's inclusion is [INFERRED]); ~₹2,800 Cr/yr of traded purchases now needs only audit-committee approval after the LODR threshold change. The Adventz side has sold PPL the Goa plant, MCFL (₹1,706.5 Cr in shares) and Mahad (₹72.75 Cr), its EPC arm Simon India is a growing vendor, and PPL carries a ₹61 Cr interest receivable from ZACL while paying ZACL dividends. A promoter pledge appeared in FY25 (15.33% of promoter holding at Jun-26), though ZMPPL released ~6.49 Cr shares on 19–22 Aug 2026. Goa Customs imposed ₹93.59 Cr in fines/penalties including a s.114AA false-declaration penalty (20 Aug 2026; under appeal). Institutions voted 64.3% against PSOP-2026. Auditor rotation is due at the 2027 AGM.

Where I land. This is a cheap, improving, structurally integrated franchise whose earnings are hostage to subsidy policy and raw-material shocks, and whose balance sheet absorbs every working-capital swing. I would not chase it on the Q1 print. The swing factors over the next 6 weeks are concrete: Q2 FY27 results (by mid-Nov) — does EBITDA/t hold ≥₹4,500? — the Rabi 2026-27 NBS rates (not yet announced), and confirmation of the phos-acid step to 0.6 MTPA by Dec-2026. A Q2 that holds margin with debt ≤₹6,500 Cr would make the valuation gap compelling; a Q2 below ₹4,000/t with debt back above ₹7,000 Cr pushes leverage through 3x.

Amplifiers
  • RoE ~16%, 13.7x P/E
  • Integration: ~$150/t acid saving
  • OCP supply security in a crisis
  • AlF3 / non-subsidy optionality
Tempering
  • 5-yr OCF negative vs ₹2,460 Cr PAT
  • ND/EBITDA ~2.9x vs 3x trigger
  • Spot sulphur >$1,000/t
  • Project slippage, RPTs, customs
Watch next
  • Q2 FY27 by 14 Nov
  • Rabi NBS rates
  • Sep-26 SHP (~21 Oct): pledge, FPI flows
  • Phos acid 0.6 MTPA by Dec-26

Business Deep-Dive

Position: Self-described "India's leading private-sector phosphatic fertiliser company"; CRISIL: 3rd-largest complex fertiliser maker (~12% FY25, ~14% FY26); ICRA: 3rd-largest by manufacturing capacity. Targets 5.0 MMTPA capacity by FY29 and 5.0 MMT sales in ~2.5 years.

Products — product by product

Product (N:P:K:S)What it doesMade at / sourcedFY26 / latest data
DAP 18:46:0 (Jai Kisaan Navratna)Highest-volume P fertiliser; basal phosphateParadeep; also traded (Jorf, Kofert, IPL consortium)FY26 sales incl. traded 761,357 t (+1.5%); manufactured production 561,489 t (−16.2%) as acid redirected to NPK. Q1 FY27 245,189 t (+55%), ~1,000 t traded. MRP effectively capped ₹1,350/bag
NPK 20:20:0:13 ("N-20", APS, "the Captain")1:1 N:P + 13% S; S-deficient soils (oilseeds, pulses, onion, cotton, paddy)Paradeep; Mangalore 0.3 MMTPA; GoaProduction 1,508 kt (FY25 1,346). Primary sales 1.43 MMT (mgmt 14.5 LMT, +9%). ~21–24% of a 6–7 MT grade market [Est.]
NPK 19:19:19Balanced NPK + micronutrientsGoa ("unique to Goa plant in India")—
NPK 10:26:26 / 12:32:16High P+K; sugarcane, potatoParadeep, GoaMRP ~₹1,900 → ₹2,000–2,025/bag in Q3 FY26
NPK 14:35:14Highest-nutrient grade (63%)Paradeep (first made FY26), Goa—
NPK 28:28:0 / 15:15:15:09High N+P / complexGoa / ex-MCFL [UNVERIFIED]—
NPK category incl. TSP6 "unique" NPK grades2,463,741 t (+21.8% vs industry +1.6%); P&K primary sales 4.2 MMT
Urea 46:0:0 (neem-coated)Nitrogen; price-controlled under NUPGoa 0.4 + Mangalore 0.4 MMTPA (+30 ktpa debottleneck Q3 FY26); gas, captive ammonia844,153 t (flat); ~4 LMT each plant. Q1 FY27 1.97 LMT (−15.8%)
TSP 0:46:0P without N; DAP alternativeImported from OCP Nutricrops (₹1,416 Cr) and Jorf (₹245 Cr)282,939 t (+91.1%); Q1 FY27 23,905 t
MOP 0:0:60PotashImported (Canada named)Q1 FY27 64,715 t (+110%)
Ammonium sulphateN+S, GoI-promoted alternativeTradedQ1 FY27 ~22,000 t
SSP (powder/granulated, "Super 16")Single superphosphate (fly ash filler)Mahad 0.2 MMTPANew in FY26
Nano Shakti Nano DAP/Urea; Nitronic 32Liquid nano/foliar N & PBought in, partly Zuari FarmHub (₹73 Cr)2.0 Mn Nano Shakti + 0.53 Mn Nitronic bottles; Q1 FY27 Nano DAP 496 KL (+62%)
ZINCRON, micronutrients, WSF, NUE Silica, FOM, fertigationSpecialty nutritionMangalore / MahadSmall
Zypmite / Plus / Maha ZypmitePhospho-gypsum soil conditionerParadeep 0.05 MMTPAQ1 FY27 15,452 t (+45%)
IndustrialGypsum (1.6 MMT recycled FY26), sulphuric acid, ammonia, HFSA (~9–10 ktpa), ABC, SNF, surplus power, services (₹82.6 Cr, mainly OCP Nutricrops)Paradeep / MangaloreTarget non-subsidy ≥20% of EBITDA long-term
AlF3 (under construction)HFSA → aluminium fluoride for Odisha smeltersParadeep 15,000 tpa₹250 Cr; revenue ₹180–200 Cr; EBITDA ~₹50 Cr; COD 22–24 months (~mid-2028)
Green ammonia (future)SIGHT scheme via SECIParadeep/Goa; third-party producer1.15 lakh MTPA (AR) vs 75,000 MTPA (SECI auction, Aug-2025) — both reported; 2–3 years out

Brands: "Jai Kisaan" / "Navratna" (5-decade Zuari brands; Jai Kisaan No.1 in 2019 Nielsen survey), "Jai Kisaan Mangala" (ex-MCFL), "Nano Shakti". Rahul Dravid brand ambassador (FY26: "Kheti ka Game Changer").

How they make it — process & integration

StepDetail
1. Sulphur → sulphuric acid (Paradeep)2.0 MMTPA (5,500 TPD; SAP-A/B/C + SAP-D 1,500 TPD commissioned 22/29 Sep 2025, refurbished 15-yr-preserved equipment, ₹510 Cr). Group output 1.45 MMT FY26; imported 0.47 MMT acid in FY25. Waste heat → 2×16 MW + 23 MW = 55 MW; net power exporter since Feb-2026. Molten sulphur from adjacent IOCL refinery
2. Rock + H₂SO₄ → phosphoric acid0.5 MMTPA at ~100% (Q3 1.45 LT, Q4 1.25 LT); FAI award. 5th evaporator (Dec-2025) SPA 0.3→0.4 MMTPA. By-products HFSA (→AlF3), gypsum (→Zypmite/cement)
3. Acid + ammonia (+MOP) → granulationParadeep 1.8 MMTPA → 2.0 by Dec-2026; 7 fungible NP/NPK lines company-wide
Integration economicsSulphuric acid 100% captive for phos acid; ~10% of N-20 acid bought; overall 80–90%. Captive phos acid saves ~US$150/t; sulphuric ~US$50/t; deck: US$150–200/t total. Make-vs-buy sulphuric benefit ~₹3,000/t normally → ₹1,500–2,000/t once sulphur >$1,000/t. Target 100% phos-acid self-sufficiency FY28–29
Goa (Zuarinagar)Gas → ammonia 0.29 MMTPA (AR; Mar-25 deck 0.23) → urea 0.4; bought acid + captive ammonia → NPK 0.8. Energy: Ph-1 Amomax converter → 6.5 Gcal/t; Ph-2 (Siemens/ISGEC/Worley, ~₹220 Cr, shutdown Feb–Apr 2026) 6.4→~6.1; Ph-3 GT+HRSG (Fichtner; bids Thermax/ISGEC/thyssenkrupp) → ~5.7 by H1 FY29. 1 MLD ETP-RO, ZLD
Mangalore (Panambur)Gas → ammonia 0.29 → urea 0.4. Naphtha-to-gas incentive expired Mar-2026 (−₹3,000–4,000/t urea EBITDA; confirmed ~₹3,000). MRPL sulphur (100%) → H₂SO₄ 100→400 TPD (0.13 MMTPA; 300 TPD plant COD 31 Mar 2026, ₹240 Cr) → N-20 0.3. Waste-heat steam replaces ~90,000 t/yr gas steam (~₹1,000/t urea). ABC, SNF, micronutrients
Mahad0.2 MMTPA SSP; bought by MCFL from ZACL by slump sale 30 Sep 2025, ₹72.75 Cr (goodwill ₹2.24 Cr)
R&D₹1.03 Cr FY26; 4 R&D staff, 4 agri labs, 3,724 farmer trials. No patents disclosed

Facilities

PlantAreaFinished capacityBackward integrationProducts / marketLogistics
Paradeep (DAP 1986; acids 1992)2,280 acres (2/3 free)DAP/NPK 1.8 MMTPA (+0.2 Dec-26; +1.0 ~Q2 FY29); Zypmite 0.05Phos acid 0.5 (→0.6 Dec-26 → 0.7 Aug/Sep-27); H₂SO₄ 2.0; power 32+23 MWDAP, N-20, N-12/10/14, 14:35:14 — East, Central, SouthCaptive berth, 3.4 km conveyor; gypsum rail siding; port ground-rent dispute (₹15.4 Cr provision)
Goa (acq. 2022 from ZACL)260 acresNPK/DAP 0.8 + urea 0.4Ammonia 0.29NPK-10/12/14/19/28; urea — West, Central, SouthNear Mormugao Port
Mangalore (ex-MCFL)200 acresNPK-20 0.3 + urea 0.4Ammonia 0.29; H₂SO₄ 0.13Urea, N-20, ABC, SNF — SouthNew Mangalore Port; MRPL next door; water-stressed
Mahad—SSP 0.2—SSP — West—
Total3.9 MMTPA (AR) / 3.7 (excl. Mahad)H₂SO₄ ~2.13; phos acid 0.5; ammonia 0.58
Capacity reconciliation [Fact]: 3.9 MMTPA per FY26 AR/BRSR includes Mahad SSP 0.2 MMTPA; investor decks and ICRA quote 3.7 MMTPA (excl. Mahad). Pre-merger 3.0 MMTPA. Storage (Mar-25 deck): Paradeep rock ~120 kt, phos acid ~65 kt, sulphur ~55 kt, ammonia ~40 kt, MOP ~35 kt; Goa urea ~40 kt, acid ~37 kt, MOP ~14 kt, NPK ~12 kt, ammonia ~8 kt.

Certifications, ESG, IP, exports, people

AreaDetail
ParadeepBureau Veritas ISO 9001/14001/45001 (to Nov-2028), ISO 50001 (to Feb-2028); NABL ISO 17025 lab; ISO 22000; ISO 27001 (company); 5S; Responsible Care; British Safety Council; IFA Protect & Sustain; ZLD
Goa / MangaloreGoa ISO 14001/45001 (TÜV Nord), ZLD. Mangalore ISO 14001 (since 2003), 45001 (DNV, renewal 16-Aug-2026), 50001; IFA Product Stewardship Excellence (SGS); NABL lab
ESGS&P CSA 76 (top 2% chemicals); only Indian fertiliser co. in S&P Sustainability Yearbook 2025/2026; BRSR Core reasonable assurance (TÜV India); Scope 1+2 814,983 tCO2e; zero LTI FY26
IP / exportsNo patents. Exports nil (BRSR). Only overseas link: Zuari Yoma Agri Solutions (Myanmar 50% JV, immaterial)
Marketing25 regional offices (Bhubaneswar, Kolkata, Sambalpur, Raipur, Hyderabad, Vijayawada, Kurnool, Vijayapura, Davanagere, Coimbatore, Bellary, Hubli, Hassan, Purnea, Varanasi, Patna, Lucknow, Chandigarh, Agra, Bhopal, Aurangabad, Kolhapur, Pune, Nagpur…); FY26 9,245 farmer meetings, 1.5 bn digital impressions

Segment Analysis

PPL reports a single segment (fertilisers) under Ind AS 108. The proxy below is built from AR/BRSR revenue cuts, volumes and management EBITDA/t commentary.

Revenue mix FY26

Cut₹ CrShareYoY
Manufactured products17,91282%+18.5%
Traded products3,91418%+113%
of which GoI subsidy (FG 9,537; traded 2,088; incl. freight ~698)11,62553.3%+31.8%
of which sale of products (dealer/farmer-paid)10,10946.3%+24.6%
BRSR NIC mixComplex/mixed 64% · trading 17% · urea 15%

Two bases — do not mix

Pre-merger as reported (Paradeep + Goa)

₹ CrFY22FY23FY24FY25
Revenue7,85913,34111,57513,820
Co. EBITDA7108927171,367
Margin (total income)9.0%6.6%6.2%9.8%
PAT399304100552
Sales (MT)——2,527,1193,033,996
EBITDA/t [Est.]——~2,840~4,510

Restated incl. MCFL

₹ CrFY25RFY26Q1FY26Q4FY26Q1FY27
Revenue16,95921,8264,5044,7026,124
Materials consumed10,30413,2472,4853,3253,555
Traded purchases1,7703,9571,5313201,857
Co. EBITDA1,6992,259*615484742
EBITDA/t (₹)4,4495,364~6,500~5,700~7,000 mgmt
PAT663997317161393
Sales (LMT)38.1942.10~9.4–9.58.449.85

*Deck shows ₹2,299 Cr pre-exceptional; gap = FY26 exceptional ₹39 Cr. Q1 FY27 EBITDA/t: mgmt ~₹7,000; computed ₹7,533 on ₹742 Cr and ₹7,310 on ₹720 Cr ex-OI (PL: 7,311). Production FY26 3,666,516 t (+7.7%): DAP 561 kt (670), N-20 1,508 (1,346), others 1,597 (1,388).

Product-line proxy ("quasi-segments")

LineFY26 sales (t)Q1 FY27 (t)Q1 YoYRevenue shareProfitability comment
DAP761,357 incl. traded244,168 mfd+54%within complex 64%Squeezed FY26 (capped MRP); favoured in Q1 FY27 by advantage-disadvantage mechanism
N-20~1.43–1.45 MMT275,749−8.6%within 64%Core margin driver; sulphur-intensive, squeezed >$1,000/t
Other NPK + SSP~0.74 MMT [Est.]143,205−32.6%within 64%Farmer price gap NPK ₹2,100–2,500 vs DAP ₹1,350/bag
Urea844,153196,646−15.8%15% (~₹3,275 Cr)Blended ~₹3,000/t (Q3 FY26); Mangalore −₹3,000/t incentive cliff; new norms Goa +₹1,500/t, Mangalore −₹700–800/t
Traded~0.64 MMT (TSP 0.28)125,374+258%18% (₹3,914 Cr)₹2,000–2,500/t lower EBITDA than mfd; ~0.5 MMT secured for Rabi FY27
Industrial / non-subsidy—Zypmite 15,452+45%~4%Target ≥20% of EBITDA; AlF3 +₹50 Cr
Fastest growers: FY26 TSP +91%, NPK incl. TSP +21.8% (industry +1.6%), traded revenue +113%. Q1 FY27 DAP +55%, traded volume +258%.
Under pressure: manufactured DAP −16% FY26; Q1 FY27 urea −15.8%, other NPK/SSP −32.6%, N-20 −8.6%; phos-acid utilisation ~70% (Hormuz/RM).

Region split (AR FY26 map): 22.1% / 14.9% / 34.3% / 28.6% printed against North/South/West/East — label mapping uncertain in extraction [UNVERIFIED]. FY25 pre-merger: East 34%, West 24%, North 21%, South 21%. Management's stated focus: NPK leadership + tactical DAP shift, backward integration, non-subsidy chemicals (AlF3), MCFL South expansion.

Financials — P&L

Five-year annual P&L (₹ Cr)

₹ CrFY22FY23FY24FY25RFY26TTM Jun-26
Revenue from operations7,85913,34111,57516,95921,82623,447
YoY+52.2%+69.8%−13.2%+46.5% NLFL+28.7%+28%
— manufactured / traded15,122 / 1,83717,912 / 3,914
Material cost6,323*10,677*9,076*11,91416,133
Gross profit1,536*2,664*2,499*5,0455,694
Gross margin19.5%20.0%21.6%29.7%26.1%
Employee cost321337
Other expenses (% rev)3,173 (18.7%)3,205 (14.7%)
EBITDA ex-OI6848166721,5742,2082,292
EBITDA margin8.7%6.1%5.8%9.3%10.1%9.8%
Other income (Screener / AR)277645124 / 14851 / 147
Co. EBITDA (reported)7118927171,6982,259~2,387 [Est.]
Co. EBITDA/t (₹)4,4495,364
Depreciation90175211344403423
EBIT incl. OI (margin)621 (7.9%)717 (5.4%)506 (4.4%)1,354 (8.0%)1,856 (8.5%)1,985
Finance cost86291366443528555
Exceptional––––−39.4 (Labour Codes)
PBT (margin)535 (6.8%)426 (3.2%)141 (1.2%)911 (5.4%)1,328 (6.1%)1,430
Tax rate26%29%29%27.3%25.0%~25%
PAT (margin)398 (5.1%)304 (2.3%)100 (0.9%)663 (3.9%)997 (4.6%)1,073
EPS basic (₹)6.923.731.236.39 (103.7 Cr wtd)9.6010.33
DPS (₹) / payout– / 0%0.50 / 13%0.50 / 41%1.00 / 15%1.50 / 16%

*FY22–24 gross profit on S&P basis. FY26 PAT ₹996.84 Cr (AR) — shown as ₹997 Cr; press release rounds to ₹1,000 Cr. Pre-merger standalone FY25: operating income ~₹13,864 Cr (CRISIL) / ₹13,820 Cr revenue, PAT ₹553 Cr. 5y CAGR (FY21–26): revenue 33%, PAT 35%; 3y: 18% / 48%. FY19–21: revenue 4,358/4,193/5,165; PAT 159/193/223. R&D ₹1.0 Cr.

Revenue (₹ Cr, bars) & EBITDA ex-OI margin (line, right axis 0–12%) 7,85913,34111,57516,95921,826 8.7%6.1%5.8%9.3%10.1% FY22FY23FY24FY25RFY26

Last 8 quarters (restated from Q2 FY25)

QuarterRevenueQoQYoYEBITDA ex-OIMarginCo. EBITDAPATPAT YoYInterestDep.PBT
Q2 FY25 (Sep-24)4,619+46%+25% NLFL50711.0%527255+187% NLFL10586337
Q3 FY25 (Dec-24)4,990+8.0%+92% NLFL4388.8%480209+92% NLFL10388289
Q4 FY25 (Mar-25)4,194−16.0%+87% NLFL3839.1%443172+682% NLFL11986238
Q1 FY26 (Jun-25)4,504+7.4%+42.7%58012.9%614–615317n.m.10486424
Q2 FY26 (Sep-25)6,872+52.6%+48.8%6579.6%698–699342+34.1%14090469
Q3 FY26 (Dec-25)5,749−16.3%+15.2%4728.2%462182−12.9%127102233
Q4 FY26 (Mar-26)4,702−18.2%+12.1%4429.4%482–484156 (PR 161)−9.3%156126202
Q1 FY27 (Jun-26)6,124+30.2%+36.0%72011.8%742393+24.0%132106526
Q1 FY27 EBITDA reconciliation [Fact]: Chosen figures — ₹742 Cr company EBITDA incl. other income (deck/call; margin 12.1% on total income; +20.7% vs ₹615 Cr) and ₹720 Cr ex-OI (11.8%; +24.1% vs ₹580 Cr). The press/Business Today "₹764 Cr" does not reconcile to the deck or transcript and is dropped. Other income ₹21.6 Cr (deck). Q1 FY27 labour-code exceptional ~₹21.8 Cr [UNVERIFIED — news only]. EPS ₹3.78 (Q1 FY26 ₹3.05). 9M FY26: revenue ₹17,124 Cr (+34%), Co. EBITDA ₹1,817 Cr (+45%). Derived restated Q1 FY25: ~3,156 / ~246 / ~26 (as-reported 2,377 / 146 / 5).
Quarterly revenue (₹ Cr, bars) & EBITDA ex-OI margin (line, 0–14%) 11.08.89.112.99.68.29.411.8 Q2FY25Q3Q4Q1FY26Q2Q3Q4Q1FY27

Growth decomposition, margins, one-offs, earnings quality

ThemeEvidence
Organic vs inorganicFY25 +46.5% is largely MCFL (NLFL). FY26 +28.7% is like-for-like on restated base
Volume vs priceFY26 sales 42.10 LMT (+10%), production 36.67 LMT (+8%); remainder price/mix + traded (+113%). Q1 FY27 volume +4% vs revenue +36% → price and DAP/traded mix
Margin trendGross margin 29.7%→26.1% (traded mix 18%, West Asia RM inflation) but other expenses 18.7%→14.7% of revenue → EBITDA margin 9.3%→10.1%. FY24 trough (5.8%): global DAP crash, NBS cuts, Q1 FY24 inventory loss (EBITDA −39)
One-offsLabour Codes exceptional ₹39.4 Cr FY26 (from Q3, after 21 Nov 2025 notification); Q3 FY26 other income −₹10 Cr (MTM/forex); MCFL stamp duty ₹25 Cr expensed; FX loss ₹50.3 Cr FY26; Q1 FY26 and Q1 FY27 inventory gains (unquantified by mgmt; analyst est. ₹120–150 Cr in Q1 FY26)
Earnings qualityPoor cash backing. OCF/PAT FY26 −1.0x; 5-yr cumulative OCF −₹348 Cr vs PAT ₹2,460 Cr (see Tab 6)
EBITDA definitionsEx-OI (Screener) vs Co. EBITDA incl. OI: FY26 2,208 + 51 = 2,259; deck 2,299 pre-exceptional; AR other income ₹146.6 Cr includes MF gains and interest

Balance Sheet, Cash Flow & Ratios

Five-year balance sheet (31 March, ₹ Cr)

₹ CrFY22FY23FY24FY25RFY26
Net fixed assets (ex-CWIP)1,2612,8723,4315,1946,026
CWIP336697372584424
Goodwill / other intangibles0 / 158 / 258 / 2139 / 60141 / 62
Inventory2,2932,2381,8312,5564,627
Trade receivables9033,6902,7213,0674,790
— of which GoI subsidy (% of TR)n.a.n.a.n.a.2,357 (77%)3,847 (80%)
Cash + bank + liquid inv.1,08843911,302409
Total current assets5,1337,0155,7578,29511,364
Trade payables2,2731,9131,4882,3023,084
ST borrowings2,2583,6602,9363,8095,624
Current maturities / NC term loans168 / 528359 / 612382 / 677401 / 853433 / 816
Leases017193634
Total debt2,9544,6484,0145,1006,906
Net debt1,8664,6053,9233,7986,497
Share capital5758148158151,038
Net worth2,2253,5043,5655,8756,783
Total assets7,92810,6579,66114,26817,936
BVPS (₹)38.743.043.856.665.3

FY25 equity included ₹1,706.5 Cr share-suspense for merger shares; FY26 moved to capital (₹221.6 Cr) + premium (total ₹2,231.7 Cr). Other equity Mar-26: retained 3,511; premium 2,232; ESOP 1.2. Inventory Mar-26 4,627: RM 2,268, FG 1,240, traded 537, WIP 274, stores 176, by-products 119, packing 12; in transit 1,797; YoY +2,071 (FG +667, traded +406, RM +917). Receivables ageing (gross 4,868): not due 3,622; <6m 920; 6–12m 7; 1–2y 3; 2–3y 140; >3y 79; disputed 97; ECL 77. SBI stock statements (inv/rec): Jun-25 3,733/3,008; Sep-25 4,821/4,024; Dec-25 4,421/4,548 (peak). Other CA 887 incl. GST 728. MCFL fair values at 1 Apr 2024: PPE 1,769; TR 571; cash 279; borrowings 1,019; DTL 146. Goodwill: Goa ₹58 Cr + MCFL ₹81 Cr + Mahad ₹2.24 Cr; WACC 11.73%, no impairment. Capital commitments ₹175.5 Cr (FY25 435.3). Unhedged FX: USD 106.65m payables + USD 25m credit; forwards ₹5,012 Cr; 5% INR = ±₹40 Cr PBT.

Cash flow and PAT-vs-OCF reconciliation

₹ CrFY22FY23FY24FY25FY265-yr sum
PAT3983041006629962,460
D&A901742103444031,221
Δ Inventory−1,394+148+407−555−2,038−3,432
Δ Trade receivables−106−2,424+964+216−1,726−3,076
Δ Payables & other CL+1,328−744−412+646+792+1,610
OCF−44−2,3771,4371,648−1,012−348
Capex (cash)−620−436−412−458−868−2,794
Acquisitions–−537 (Goa)––−73 (Mahad)−610
FCF (OCF − capex)−664−2,8131,0251,190−1,880−3,142
Dividends / equity raised0 / 00 / +975 IPO−41 / +3−59 / +3−99 / +5−199
CFI / CFF−1,099 / 1,589−419 / 2,301−367 / −1,022−694 / −389−557 / 998
OCF/PAT · OCF/EBITDA−0.1x · 6%−7.8x · −274%14.4x · 222%2.5x · 105%−1.0x · −46%−0.14x
FCF yieldn.a.−68.5%+18.9%+11.1%−16.9% (−12.8% on CMP)

FY25/26 AR: OCF before WC 1,609 / 2,221; taxes −201 / −290; interest paid −365 / −347; net ST borrowings +201 / +1,454 (FY26 gross churn ₹21,855 Cr raised, ₹20,401 Cr repaid). Note: P&L "change in inventories" FY26 was −₹1,072 Cr; the balance-sheet build was +₹2,071 Cr (includes traded/RM in transit).

Cumulative PAT (gold) vs cumulative OCF (navy), FY22–FY26, ₹ Cr0 2,460−348−2,421664 FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26
FLAG — persistent PAT/OCF divergence [Fact]: working capital absorbed all profit plus depreciation (inventory −3,432; receivables −3,076 over 5 years). Cyclical and subsidy-timed rather than an accounting problem: FY23 OCF −2,377 (record DAP prices, receivables 903→3,690); FY24–25 +1,437/+1,648 (release); FY26 −1,012 (West Asia stocking, inventory 78→105 days, subsidy receivable +1,490). Q1 FY27 OCF positive, debt −₹700 Cr, ₹2,650 Cr subsidy received — but ₹4,600 Cr still outstanding at 30 Jun 2026 (vs 3,847 Mar-26). Finance cost ₹528 Cr = 23% of Co. EBITDA.

Working capital (days)

DaysFY22FY23FY24FY25FY26
Debtor days42101866680
— subsidy receivable daysn.a.n.a.n.a.5164
Inventory days133777478105
Creditor days13266607170
Cash conversion cycle4311210074115
WC days (Screener)−501413−318
AR: receivable / inventory / payable turnover5.71 / 7.72 / 6.555.42 / 6.05 / 6.75

Longer history: CCC 280 days FY19, 221 FY20, 78 FY21 (old subsidy-arrears era). Subsidy receivable path: ₹1,900 Cr (Mar-25 standalone) → 2,200 (Jun-25 SA) → 3,275 (Sep-25) → 3,780 (Dec-25) → 3,847 (Mar-26) → ~4,600 (Jun-26, ~21% of FY26 revenue, ~31% of mcap). Fertiliser subsidy budget FY26 ₹1.68 lakh Cr; FY27 ₹1.71 lakh Cr.

Key ratios

RatioFY22FY23FY24FY25FY26Latest
RoE19.6%10.6%2.8%11.9%15.75%16.2% TTM
RoCE (EBIT incl OI / avg CE)15.0%10.8%6.4%~12–13%15.1% (AR 13.6%)15.4%
ROIC (S&P)14.5%9.4%4.8%10.9%12.1%10.5%
D/E gross1.331.331.130.861.01~0.93 Jun-26e
Net debt/equity0.841.311.100.650.96
Net debt / Co. EBITDA2.6x5.2x5.5x2.2x2.9x~2.5x Jun-26e
Interest cover (EBIT/int)7.2x2.5x1.4x3.1x3.5x3.6x
EBITDA/interest · DSCR8.3x3.1x2.0x3.8x · 1.84x4.3x · 2.34x
Current / quick ratio1.02 / 0.461.10 / 0.641.10 / 0.651.16 / 0.701.15 / 0.58
Asset turn / fixed-asset turn1.27 / 6.2x1.44 / 4.6x1.14 / 3.4x~1.24 / 3.3x1.36 / 3.6x
Implied cost of debt~4%~8%~8%~9%~9%
Leverage reconciliation: Mar-26 gross debt ₹6,906 Cr (AR incl. ₹34 Cr leases; borrowings ex-leases ₹6,872 Cr), net ₹6,497 Cr; net debt/EBITDA ~2.85–2.9x (6,497/2,259 = 2.88x; on ex-OI 2,208 = 2.94x; CRISIL ~2.85x) vs CRISIL downgrade trigger >3x. Jun-26 gross ~₹6,500 Cr (management) [Fact, unaudited]; net ~₹6,100 Cr [Est.]. CRISIL: adj. debt/NW 1.04x FY26; interest cover 4.38x; expects leverage to rise in FY27 and ease FY28.

Debt structure (31 Mar 2026)

Instrument₹ Cr%Terms
Supplier's credit (secured)2,91842%30–180 days; 6M SOFR + 0.20–0.75%
Buyer's credit1,01515%same
Local bills discounted1,03115%91–180 days; 6–7%
WCDL6199%7–91 days; 6.75–7.75%
Other ST / CC40 / 0.11%
Working-capital debt5,62482%self-liquidating vs subsidy/receivables
Term loans secured (incl. current)1,09916%7.05–9.65%
Term loans unsecured (Kookmin, Shinhan, KEB Hana)1502%
Leases340.5%

Mar-25: buyer's 1,339; supplier's 1,784; bills 687; TL 1,254. CP ₹300 Cr programme rated, nil outstanding. Maturity: <1 yr ₹6,057 Cr; 1–5 yr ₹816 Cr. TL repayments ~₹104 Cr Q1 FY27; ₹380–433 Cr FY27. New loans: ICICI 20×₹17.5 Cr from Mar-26; Axis 14×₹21.4 Cr from Dec-27; KEB Hana 4×₹15 Cr from Jun-27; BoI 12×₹11.65 Cr from Jan-27. No covenant breaches. Liquidity: cash ~₹409 Cr, unutilised WC ~₹2,000 Cr (Mar-26), ~₹2,463 Cr (31 Jul 2026); CRISIL liquidity "Strong" (Sep-25, Sep-26) / "adequate" (Apr-26 bulletin). Rate sensitivity 50 bp: ±₹14.7 Cr INR, ±₹17.7 Cr USD.

Lender lines (ICRA annexure, 27 Jan 2026, ₹ Cr)

LenderTerm loansFund-based WCNon-fund LC/BGTotal
State Bank of India1297302,8293,688
Canara Bank–4001,3001,700
Axis Bank1605009301,590
ICICI Bank5761755751,326
Punjab National Bank1153708001,285
HDFC Bank701508501,070
Bank of Baroda–100550650
Bank of India15050200400
IndusInd Bank200100100400
DBS Bank–75275350
Union Bank–75180255
YES Bank–22015235
RBL Bank––200200
IDBI Bank–595100
Proposed1,600502,3013,951
Total3,0003,00011,20017,200 + CP 300

Credit ratings

AgencyInstrumentRatingDate / action
ICRALT fund-based ₹3,000 Cr + TL ₹3,000 CrAA- (Stable)27 Jan 2026 upgraded from A+ (Watch Developing, MCFL). Prior: Jul-23 (A era); Feb-25 A→A+/watch
ICRAST non-fund ₹11,200 Cr; CP ₹300 CrA1+27 Jan 2026
CRISILCP ₹300 CrA1+Assigned 11 Sep 2025; reaffirmed 11 Sep 2026; West-Asia bulletin 14 Apr 2026 (no action)
CARE / India Ratings—Not rated—
Gross debt (navy) & net debt (gold), ₹ Cr — FY22 to Jun-26e~3x Co. EBITDA ≈ ₹6,780 Cr 2,9544,6484,0145,1006,906~6,500 FY22FY23FY24FY25RFY26Jun-26e

Capex — three numbers for FY26

Measure₹ CrSource / label
CFO letter (AR) capex1,072.5[Fact] AR; likely includes capitalised/merged assets [UNVERIFIED]
Cash-flow capex + Mahad acquisition868 + 73[Fact] AR cash-flow statement
Guided (Feb-2026 call)~500[Fact] guidance; narrative tally H1 ₹471 / 9M ₹450 is internally inconsistent [UNVERIFIED]
Group capex historyFY24 453 · FY25 381AR
FY27 budget / maintenance~600 / ~350May-26 call (Nov-25: maintenance 200–300)

Unreconciled [Analyst View]: the gap between ₹1,073 Cr (AR) and ~₹500 Cr (guided) is not explained by the company; both are shown.

Equity dilution / share-count history

DateEventShares (Cr)Notes
FY22Split ₹1,000 → ₹10 FV (1:100)57.55ZMPPL ~80.45%, GoI ~19.55%
May 2022IPO at ₹42 (band ₹39–42), listed 27 May 2022; fresh ₹1,004 Cr (23.90 Cr sh) + OFS ₹498 Cr81.45GoI sold entire 19.55% (11,24,89,000 sh, ~₹471 Cr); ZMPPL sold 60,18,493 sh
FY23–25ESOP 2021 exercises81.45→81.524.31 lakh in FY25
3 Dec 2025MCFL merger allotment (187:100; record date 31 Oct 2025; listed 31 Dec 2025)+22.1622,16,23,331 sh; +27.2% dilution; consideration ₹1,706.5 Cr (~₹77/sh)
FY26ESOP 13,37,170 sh103.82Total FY26 issuance 22,29,60,501
17 Sep 2026PSOP 2026 (max 20 lakh options) approved—0.19% of equity
—QIP / preferential / warrants / bonus / buybacknone

Overhang: ESOP 2021 outstanding 12,39,380 (5,50,071 exercisable; ₹42–117) + PSOP 20 lakh ≈ 32.4 lakh shares (~0.31%). Grants: 29 Apr 2022 24.0 lakh @₹42; 20 Jun 2023 8.14 lakh @₹51; 5 Feb 2024 4.38 lakh @₹51–64; 13 Feb 2026 2.89 lakh @₹77–117. (Market workstream's "0.08%" counts only currently-dilutive options.)

Management, Promoters & Governance

Governance verdict summary

AreaRatingKey evidence
Promoter structureStableZMPPL (50:50 ZACL/Adventz–OCP) since 2002; inter-se agreement 29 Jul 2025 makes ZMPPL sole acquisition vehicle
Promoter pledgeAmber15.33% of promoter holding (8.87% of equity) at Jun-26; ZMPPL release ~6.49 Cr sh 19–22 Aug 2026
Related partiesRed/AmberOCP-group ~₹8,227 Cr (~38% of revenue), no tendering
Adventz RPTsAmberMahad ₹72.75 Cr; Simon India ₹57 Cr; ZACL interest receivable ₹61 Cr; ZMPPL acid/ammonia ₹93 Cr
BoardAmber6/12 independent (exactly 50%; CG report wrongly says "over 50%"); 3 IDs interlocked with Adventz/SKP boards
AuditWatchUnmodified; EoM on retrospective merger accounting; rotation at 2027 AGM
RegulatoryAmberNo SEBI penalties 3 yrs; Goa customs ₹93.59 Cr order (appeal); entry tax at SC

Key management

NameRole / sinceBackground / pay
N. Suresh Krishnan (DIN 00021965, b.1964)MD & CEO, 16 Feb 2020; re-appointed 16 Feb 2026–15 Feb 2029B.E.(Hons)/M.Sc BITS Pilani; 35+ yrs, 20+ Adventz (ex-MD&CEO ZACL, MCFL, Zuari Industries); ex-Chairman FAI. 1,40,477 shares. FY26 pay ₹9.42 Cr (FY25 ₹7.35 Cr; +28% total, fixed +16%; 67.76x median; ~0.95% of PAT)
K K Rajeev Nambiar (DIN 07313541)COO; Jt MD & COO 1 Apr 2026–31 Mar 2029NIT Surathkal; ex-MD&CEO Shree Digvijay Cement (2015), 21 yrs ACC. ₹3.41 Cr (₹2.45 Cr). Postal ballot 91.1%, institutional support only 67.2%. Likely successor
Bijoy Kumar BiswalCFO, 6 Nov 2021CA 1998; ex-Forte Furniture CFO, ex-ZACL. ₹1.20 Cr (+12%)
Sachin PatilCS, 4 Nov 2020Ex-Zuari Global. ₹0.30 Cr
Harshdeep SinghPresident & CCOIIFT; ex-Tata Chemicals, HUL
Raj Kumar GuptaChief Procurement OfficerCMA; ex-CFO ZACL; ex-IMACID Morocco, Suhail Bahwan, Chambal
Rajneesh BhardwajCHRO, Jul 2023Ex-Army, UPL, Jindal Power
Alok SaxenaHead Corp Finance & IROn all six calls; Susnato Lahiri (Strategy/IR) until Nov-2025. Ex-President & COO Sabaleel Nandy exit date OPEN

Board of Directors (30 Jun 2026)

NameCategorySinceFY26 attend.Background / interlocks
Saroj Kumar PoddarChairman, NE (ZMPPL)5 Feb 20147/7Age 80; Adventz Chairman; ex-FICCI/ICC President; Chambal NE Chairman, Texmaco Rail Exec Chairman, ZACL; continuation >75 ~97.1%; ~9.7% institutional opposition
Akshay PoddarVice Chairman, NE6 Nov 20252Son of SKP; LSE, Harvard OPM; 19 directorships
N. Suresh KrishnanMD & CEO16 Feb 20207
K K Rajeev NambiarJt MD & COO1 Apr 2026—
Soual MohamedNE (OCP)3 Feb 20207Adviser to OCP CEO
Karim Lotfi SenhadjiNE (OCP)31 Jan 20225OCP Group CFO; missed both AGMs; AC 3/5; FY25 2/6
Satyananda MishraID4 Nov 20207IAS 1973; ex-MCX Chairman; NRC/SRC chair
Dipankar ChatterjiID3 Aug 20217FCA; Audit & Risk chair; also ID of promoter ZACL and Nicco Parks
Subhrakant PandaID31 Jan 20226MD IMFA; FICCI President; 2nd term to 2030 (98.82%)
Rita MenonID27 Jun 20237IAS 1975; also ID of Chambal (SKP chairs); CSR & ESG chair
Ruchira KambojID6 Nov 20252IFS 1987; ex-UN Permanent Representative (99.64%)
Marco P. A. WadiaID18 Mar 2026NAM&A lawyer; also ID of Texmaco Rail (Adventz)

FY26: 7 board meetings; Audit 5; NRC 4; SRC 1; RMC 2; CSR 1. Committees — Audit: Chatterji (C), Senhadji, Mishra, Menon; NRC: Mishra (C), Menon, Soual; RMC: Chatterji (C), Krishnan, Senhadji, Nambiar; Finance: Krishnan (C). 19 complaints FY26 resolved. Kiran Dhingra (ID) completed term 26 Jul 2023. NED pay: Menon ₹16.2 lakh, Mishra 15.8, Chatterji 15.4, Panda 12.5, SKP 10.0, Kamboj 0.5; OCP nominees nil.

Shareholding — % and share counts (Mn)

CategorySep-24Mar-25Jun-25Sep-25Dec-25Mar-26Jun-26
Promoter56.0856.05 (457)56.04 (457)57.20 (467)57.70 (599)57.79 (600)57.86 (601)
FII/FPI2.057.17 (59)13.97 (114)15.01 (122)11.43 (118)8.36 (87)5.10 (53)
DII27.0924.44 (199)18.18 (149)14.56 (119)13.25 (139)15.49 (162)18.07 (189)
— of which MFs24.06 (196)18.11 (148)14.50 (118)13.12 (136)15.35 (159)17.83 (185)
Govt0.000.000.000.000.100.100.10
Public14.7912.3311.8213.2117.5218.2518.85 (196)
— Retail <₹2L9.12 (74)9.13 (75)10.11 (82)10.77 (112)11.21 (116)11.68 (121)
Holders2,33,3012,31,6392,44,8702,94,3423,42,1143,25,3013,29,116
Pledge (% promoter)014.2214.2213.9212.51/15.7415.3515.33
Reading flows in share counts [Fact + Est.]: equity base ~816 Mn → ~1,038 Mn in Dec-25 (MCFL), so every non-promoter % fell ~21% with no trade. FII 15.0% (Sep-25) → 11.4% (Dec-25) is mostly dilution (≈11.8% mechanical; shares ~flat at 118 Mn). Real FII exit came in Mar-26 and Jun-26 quarters (−31 Mn, −34 Mn) to 53 Mn. MFs sold the 2025 rally (196→118 Mn) then bought the 2026 drawdown (+67 Mn to 185 Mn). Retail +46 Mn YoY. Net: foreign-out / domestic-in. Sep-26 SHP due ~21 Oct 2026.
Shares held (Mn): MFs (navy), FPIs (red), Retail (gold) — Mar-25 to Jun-26 19618512253121MCFL dilution Mar-25Jun-25Sep-25Dec-25Mar-26Jun-26

Promoter holding & pledge — reconciled

Entity (Jun-26 SHP)Shares% equityPledged% own
ZMPPL52,29,71,97050.376,50,00,00012.43
Zuari Agro Chemicals6,54,33,8466.302,70,77,05041.38
Adventz Finance81,35,1750.7800
Zuari Industries5,72,5820.0600
Poddar/Agarwala individuals (Jyotsna 0.28%)35,70,9190.3400
Total — 30 Jun 2026 [Fact]60,06,84,49257.869,20,77,05015.33% (8.87% eq.)
19–22 Aug 2026: ZMPPL release (Tata Capital, after loan repayment) [Fact]−6.49 Cr (4.0 + 2.49)
Residual post-August [Est.]~2.72 Cr (mostly ZACL)~4.5% (~2.6% eq.)

Alternatives: heard/narrative cite residual ~2.4% of equity; Zerodha "pledged holding now 6.26%" [UNVERIFIED — does not reconcile]. A reported 19 Sep 2025 release of 2.5 Cr shares [UNVERIFIED] is not visible in the Sep-25 SHP (still 6.5 Cr). Pledge history: nil to Dec-24; ZMPPL 6.5 Cr from Q4 FY25; ZACL 2.71 Cr carried over from MCFL. Pledgee for ZACL / purpose OPEN; coincidence with ZMPPL's ₹418 Cr payment to ZACL is [INFERRED]. Verify in Sep-26 SHP.

Insider / SAST activity

DatePartyAction
24 Sep 2025ZMPPLNSE bulk buy 97.5 lakh @ ₹182.06 (~₹177.5 Cr; ~1.2% of then-equity); now ~22% under water. Governance infers ~1.17 Cr shares accreted in Sep-25 qtr (Scheme cl. 49.2 cap 1,90,16,030)
13 Oct 2025ZACL → ZMPPL2,90,37,000 MCFL "identified shares" @ ₹144 (₹418.14 Cr cash) → ~5.43 Cr PPL shares post-swap
4 Dec 2025ZACLAllotted 6.54 Cr PPL shares (6.30%)
16–17 Feb 2026Akshay → Jyotsna PoddarGift 26.22 lakh shares (inter-se)
Jun-26 qtrZMPPL50.31% → 50.37%
—Directors/KMPNo open-market sales identified; KMP hold 4.70 lakh shares; ESOP expense ₹0.89 Cr FY26

Related-party transactions — OCP group (AR Note 33, ₹ Cr)

CounterpartyNatureFY26FY25R
Indo Maroc Phosphore (IMACID)Phosphoric acid2,541.271,648.48
Phosphates de BoucraaRock (Western Sahara)2,087.441,168.19
OCP S.A.Rock / phos acid703.57 / 105.931,237.16 / 538.40
OCP NutricropsTraded TSP / DAP1,415.86 / —319.15 / 286.30
Kofert [INFERRED OCP]Traded DAP679.46182.28
Jorf FertiliserTraded TSP / DAP244.85 / 448.89109.47 / —
Other (OCP Maintenance, demurrage)~3.7
Total OCP-linked purchases~8,227~5,490
+ ZMPPL (holding co) sulphuric acid & ammonia93.2468.84
OCP Nutricrops service income (revenue)82.55—
Reconciliation: ~₹8,227 Cr OCP-linked (~37.7% of revenue; ~48% of materials+traded purchases of ₹17,204 Cr; BRSR: 46% of purchases from related parties). Business workstream's ~₹8,320 Cr = 8,227 + ZMPPL ₹93 Cr. Financials' ~₹5,440 Cr covers only IMACID + Boucraa + OCP SA (the AGM-approved entities). Kofert's OCP affiliation is [INFERRED] from the FY26 AGM grouping. FY27 omnibus approval ₹8,600 Cr covers only IMACID (₹2,100 Cr), OCP SA (₹2,500 Cr), Phosboucraa (₹4,000 Cr); with the per-party threshold raised to ₹2,091.32 Cr, ~₹2,800 Cr/yr of traded buying (Nutricrops, Kofert, Jorf) needs only audit-committee approval. Mar-26 payables: IMACID 501.6, Boucraa 377.2, OCP 120.1, Jorf 7.6; claims receivable ~₹401 Cr (Boucraa 250.7, OCP 85.7, IMACID 61.9, Jorf 2.7). Q1 FY27: IMACID ₹0.10 Cr, OCP ₹418.92 Cr, Boucraa ₹137.60 Cr. AGM notice "112%" turnover figure for Boucraa is an error (~54%). Pricing: Argus quarterly India contract / CFR indices; CUP/TNMM; no bidding.

Related-party transactions — Adventz / Zuari group (₹ Cr)

CounterpartyNatureFY26FY25Balance 31-Mar-26
Zuari Agro ChemicalsPurchase of business (Mahad SSP slump sale, 30 Sep 2025)72.75—
Zuari Agro ChemicalsSales / interest income / dividend paid to ZACL26.04 / 3.75 / 9.60— / 9.29 / 9.60Interest receivable ₹61.27 Cr (58.46)
Zuari FarmHubFertiliser sales / Nano purchases / misc income309.17 / 73.38 / 25.04268.74 / 59.55 / 15.45Receivable 73.48
Simon India (EPC)Fixed assets / advances / reimb.57.15 / 11.22 / 6.6611.08Cap. advance 14.57; creditors 13.62
Zuari Management ServicesShared services11.999.93
Lionel India / Adventz Finance / Texmaco RailAir tickets / rent / lease income4.56 / 3.46 / 0.635.98 / 2.48 / 1.25
ZMPPLDividend paid45.6922.85
Zuari Yoma (Myanmar JV)Investment / receivable3.66 / 0.56

Mahad was bought by MCFL two weeks before the merger became effective (avoiding a separate PPL vote). ZACL interest receivable origin undisclosed (possibly MCFL legacy). CARO: no loans/guarantees to related parties.

Auditors

ItemDetail
Statutory auditorB S R & Co. LLP (KPMG), FRN 101248W/W-100022; FY26 partner Jayanta Mukhopadhyay (11 May 2026); Q1 FY27 review partner Burjis Pardiwala (change)
TenureAppointed 35th AGM (2017); re-appointed 40th AGM (12 Sep 2022) to 45th AGM — mandatory rotation ~Sep 2027
Opinion / EoMUnmodified; Emphasis of Matter: MCFL accounted from 1 Apr 2024 per NCLT scheme, overriding Ind AS 103 (acquisition date would be 16 Oct 2025). Other Matter: MCFL FY25 audited by another auditor
KAMs(1) Subsidy revenue ₹11,625 Cr / receivable ₹3,847 Cr; (2) MCFL PPA; (3) Goa goodwill — 5-yr growth cut to 0.56–0.71% (from 3–7%), terminal 3% (from 5%), WACC 11.73% (12.97%)
Fees FY26Audit ₹0.98 Cr; tax audit 0.10; other services 1.81 (FY25 1.17); reimb. 0.23; total ₹3.12 Cr
CARO / otherClean; no fraud, no whistle-blower complaints; audit trail not enabled at database level (Rule 11(g)). Cost auditor S. S. Sonthalia; secretarial Sunita Jyotirmoy & Associates (FY26–30) — flags customs TGU seizure

Subsidiaries, group & acquisitions

Deal / entityDateConsiderationOutcome
Goa facility (from ZACL)Jun-2022~US$280m [UNVERIFIED]; cash-flow line ₹537 Cr (FY23)Goodwill ₹58 Cr; thinner headroom (KAM); customs seizure at this site
MCFL mergerAgreement 7 Feb 2024; CCI 30 Jul 2024; NCLT Bengaluru 24 Sep / Cuttack 26 Sep 2025; effective 13/16 Oct 2025; allotment 3 Dec 2025187:100; 22,16,23,331 sh; ₹1,706.5 Cr; net assets ₹1,625.47 Cr; goodwill ₹81.03 Cr; stamp duty ₹25 CrCapacity 3.0→3.7 MTPA; working so far. ₹604.5 Cr freehold land still titled in MCFL's name (CARO). NCLT vote 99.9984%; only 0.84% of public non-institutional voted
Mahad SSP (via MCFL from ZACL)30 Sep 2025₹72.75 Cr; goodwill ₹2.24 CrSmall RPT
Zuari Yoma Agri Solutions (Myanmar)50:50 with YomaUS$512,500; ₹3.66 CrAOC-1 profit 19.3 Mn kyat vs consolidated loss ₹0.49 Cr (inconsistent); unaudited
Fertilizer Innovation Foundation-India12 Aug 2026Not-for-profit subsidiaryNew

Litigation & regulatory

MatterAmountStatus
Goa Customs — technical-grade urea (TGU)Seizure: 25,000 MT, assessable ₹103.30 Cr. Order: ₹93.59 Cr on 7 consignments (assessable ₹465.23 Cr) = redemption fine ₹23.26 Cr + s.112(a)(i) penalty ₹46.52 Cr + s.114AA false-declaration penalty ₹23.81 CrTwo stages of one case: search 4 Oct 2025 → seizure 24 Jan 2026 (biuret >0.8%; DGFT Notif. 79/2015-20) → provisional release 13 Feb 2026 → adjudication 20 Aug 2026. Company disputes sampling (IS 1781:2022), will appeal, "not material". Not in Note 29. Governance file's "pending adjudication" is superseded
Odisha entry tax (BIFR relief 2007–14)₹76 Cr (₹26 Cr paid; provided)NCLAT dismissed 18 May 2026; SC notice 19 Jun 2026, 25% deposit by 30 Jul, no coercive action
Odisha water-charge interest₹58.05 Cr (rising ~₹12 Cr/yr)Orissa HC
Subsidy withheld (NBS)₹53.5 CrDelhi HC release 16 May 2025; SC dismissed DoF appeal 7 Aug 2026 — hence dropped from contingents
GST / customs / excise / IT23.93 / 9.45 / 6.39 / 25.38AY2020-21 IT ₹20.61 Cr quashed; refund ₹20.57 Cr on 7 Jul 2026
CPCB closure direction (EP Act s.5)—Conditionally revoked for 90 days Apr-2024 (current status unverified); Chanakana phosphogypsum dumping allegation (Parliament Q); 2008 SPCB closure stayed by HC
MRP-reasonableness guidelines—Delhi HC writ with FAI (13 Mar 2024)
Paradeep Port tariff disputesContingent assetOrissa HC
SEBI / exchanges—No penalties in 3 yrs; Reg 24A nil; MGT-7 nil

Contingent liabilities ₹160.2 Cr (FY25 ₹253.4 Cr): GST 23.93, entry tax 26.50, VAT 1.41, excise 6.39, service tax 0.15, customs 9.45, IT 25.38, others 66.98 (water 58.05; labour 5.19; GoI-loan penal interest 3.44). Goa Green Cess ₹54.32 Cr dropped. Political donation: ₹15 Cr to Prudent Electoral Trust in restated FY25 (donor PPL or MCFL unconfirmed). CSR ₹12.97 Cr. PSOP 2026: 20 lakh options, exercise down to FV ₹10, Part B (board-level) vests on undisclosed share-price target; ~18.84% overall against, 64.3% of institutions against. Western Sahara: ~₹2,087 Cr/yr from Bou Craa (UN non-self-governing territory) — ESG-exclusion risk. ZACL excluded by Norway GPFG in 2013 (status unverified).

Supply Chain

↑ Upstream — What Paradeep Depends On

Metric (BRSR, assured)FY26FY25
Inputs sourced within India13.62%25%
Implied import dependence [Est.]~86%~75%
From MSMEs3.2%7%
Related-party purchases / total46%48%
Via trading houses (top-10 share)43.9% (24; 81.5%)35.4% (23; 88.3%)
Payable days69.672.4
Forex outgo₹13,953 Cr
InputUseNamed sourceRisk
Rock phosphatePhos acid; SSPPhosphates de Boucraa ₹2,087 Cr + OCP SA ₹704 Cr (~₹2,791 Cr); exclusive LT contract, 100% of need, discounts + extended credit; Jordan also namedSingle-source (OCP ~70% of world reserves); Western Sahara ESG
Phosphoric acidGoa/Mangalore NPKIMACID ₹2,541 Cr + OCP SA ₹106 Cr (~₹2,647 Cr)Q2-2026 ~$1,360/t P2O5 CFR (low-reliability) vs $1,153
SulphurSulphuric acidIOCL Paradeep (20–30%), MRPL (100% Mangalore), Gulf (Qatar, Saudi) via HormuzAll spot, no LT contract (Jul-26; contradicts Jul-25 "annual LT contracts" and ICRA). $150–200 → $540–550 (Feb-26) → ~$850 (Q1 avg) → >$1,000/t
AmmoniaDAP/NPKImports re-routed Middle East → SE Asia; captive Goa+Mangalore; ZMPPL ₹93 CrSupply to plants stopped after 28 Feb 2026 (S&P interview)
Natural gasUreaNUP pool / RLNG: ~$12 (Q3 FY26), ~$14 (Q4), $18–19/MMBtu (May-26)Pass-through; Gas Order 9 Mar 2026 cut urea to 70% gas (90% from 6 Apr)
MOPNPK, tradedImported (Canada)FX
Traded DAP/TSPTradingOCP Nutricrops ₹1,416 Cr TSP; Jorf ₹245 Cr TSP + ₹449 Cr DAP; Kofert ₹679 Cr DAP; IPL consortiumImport-parity under-recovery ~₹16–24k/t on DAP [Est.]
Capex vendorsProjectsSimon India (Adventz, ₹57 Cr), Siemens, ISGEC, Worley, Fichtner, Thermax, thyssenkrupp; GEM Enviro (EPR); SECI (green ammonia)RPT

Import financing: supplier's+buyer's credit ₹3,933 Cr (Mar-26) vs ₹3,122 Cr; LC lines ₹11,200 Cr. OCP-group payables ~₹1,000 Cr = de facto credit. Hormuz: management says 70–75% of global sulphur & ammonia trade passes through it — inconsistent with AR's own Middle East shares (ammonia 23%, MAP/DAP 18%, urea 34%); Middle East ~50% of seaborne sulphur. Mitigants: ~30 days extra RM stock built pre-FY27; diversified ammonia; grade flexibility; integration capex.

Input-cost pass-through

ProductRegimePass-through
UreaNUP cost-plusFull on gas; margin = energy-efficiency gap vs norm
DAPNBS + informal MRP cap ₹1,350/bagPoor; advantage-disadvantage adjustment + special ₹3,500/t package (2026 continuation unverified)
NPKNBS, MRP nominally freePartial; PPL price leader but Q1 NPK volume −9% after hikes
AllUSD-linked inputsNBS fixed in INR for 6 months; FX loss ₹50.3 Cr FY26

↓ Downstream — Who Depends On Paradeep

ItemDetail
ChannelDealers 90% of sales (93% FY25); 6,155 billed dealers; 1 lakh+ retailers; 669 stock points; 25 ROs; 18 states; 12 Mn+ farmers
ConcentrationTop-10 dealers 5.1% (4.6%); related-party sales 3% (6%) — Zuari FarmHub ₹309 Cr, ZACL ₹26 Cr; rebates ₹213 Cr
GoI as counterparty53% of revenue subsidy (₹11,625 Cr), paid post PoS/iFMS sale. Received ₹2,500 Cr (Q3 FY26), ₹2,600 Cr (Q4), ₹2,650 Cr (Q1 FY27); outstanding ₹3,780 → 3,800 → 4,600 Cr
End usersPaddy, cotton, oilseeds, pulses, sugarcane, vegetables, onion/chilli, potato, banana, plantations. Industrial: cement (gypsum), AlF3/cryolite (HFSA), grid (power), construction (SNF), Odisha smelters (future AlF3)
GeographyLeading share in Odisha, WB, Bihar, Karnataka, Maharashtra, MP, UP (ICRA); MCFL adds Karnataka, Kerala, TN
StickinessNo contracts. Brand pull, dealer credit/loyalty, N-20 agronomics. Farmers switch DAP↔NPK when gap <₹200/bag (now ~₹1,000). Q1 FY27 farmer sales +15–16% vs industry ~1%
Channel stockEnd-Q3 FY26: DAP 1.06 LT, NPK 5 LT, TSP 65 kt; end-Q4: DAP 1.28 LT, NPK 5.95 LT

Value-chain map

INPUTS — Rock (OCP Boucraa/OCP SA, Jordan) · Phos acid (IMACID/OCP) · Sulphur (IOCL, MRPL, Gulf spot via Hormuz) · Ammonia (SE Asia/Gulf; captive Goa+Mangalore) · MOP (Canada) · Gas (NUP pool/RLNG)
→ PPL PROCESSING — sulphur → H₂SO₄ ~2.1 MMTPA (+55 MW power) → rock + acid → phos acid 0.5 MMTPA (gypsum → Zypmite/cement; HFSA → AlF3) → 7 granulation lines 2.9 MMTPA DAP/NPK · Mahad SSP 0.2 · gas → ammonia 0.58 → urea 0.8
→ TRADED INFLOWS ~0.64 MMT (₹3,957 Cr): OCP Nutricrops / Jorf / Kofert / IPL
→ DOWNSTREAM Jai Kisaan Navratna / Mangala / Nano Shakti → 6,155 dealers → 1 lakh+ retailers/co-ops → 12 Mn+ farmers in 18 states
→ GOVERNMENT LAYER NBS + NUP subsidy = 53% of revenue; DAP MRP cap; urea MRP fixed
Where pricing power sits [Analyst View]: (1) Upstream global sellers — OCP (rock/acid oligopoly) and Gulf sulphur/ammonia — hold the most; PPL's promoter link buys priority supply, discounts and ~₹1,000 Cr payables credit but it remains a benchmark price-taker. (2) GoI is the downstream price-maker via urea MRP, DAP cap and NBS. (3) PPL's own power is limited to NPK/N-20 price leadership; its durable edge is cost — integration (~US$150/t acid), captive berth, urea energy efficiency, OCP terms. (4) Dealers/farmers are fragmented but the DAP–NPK price gap caps NPK pricing.

Competitive Position

MetricValueBasis
Rank, complex fertilisersNo.3 after IFFCO, CoromandelCRISIL
Share~12% FY25 → ~14% FY26CRISIL Sep-2025 / Sep-2026
NPK incl. TSP 2.46 Mt vs ~14 Mt market~17–18% [Est.]Deck; transcript
20:20:0:13 1.43 Mt vs 6–7 Mt~20–24% [Est.]AR; transcript
DAP 561 kt vs 7.99 Mt (Apr–Dec-25 DBT)Mid-single-digitAR
Coromandel / IFFCO~17.5% phosphatic / ~31% complex (P2O5), ~19% ureaScreener / Wikipedia (undated)
Top-3 concentration~55–60% (mixed bases, directional)[Est.]

Peer comparison (13 Oct 2026; ₹ Cr)

CompanyMcapFY26 RevGrowthEBITDA%PAT%RoEP/EEV/EBITDAP/BMoat / model
Paradeep14,71621,826+28.7%10.1%4.6%16.2%13.7x9.3x2.2xPort-based integrated DAP/NPK; OCP linkage; 2 urea units
Coromandel51,12031,480+30.7%*10.3%6.0%16.4%28.8x15.8x4.1xNo.1 private phosphatic; SSP leader; crop protection 12%; Senegal rock; ~1,200 outlets; net cash
Chambal15,16920,794+24.9%13.0%9.4%20.0%7.9x5.5x1.5xGas urea + traded DAP/NPK/MOP; Morocco acid JV
Deepak Fert (cons.)17,45111,506+12.0%14.6%6.4%10.9%17.7x11.1x2.6xTAN/nitric/IPA chemicals; specialty NPK
RCF5,78618,480+9.1%5.2%2.3%7.8%12.9x9.8x1.1xPSU urea + Suphala NPK
GSFC5,85810,946+14.8%7.2%6.1%5.5%8.5x6.8x0.5xFertiliser + caprolactam; ₹4,610 Cr investments
FACT47,7185,724+41.3%1.2%−0.7%−2.9%n.m.n.m.35.3xFactamfos; 10% float — outlier
NFL3,08821,519+8.7%3.9%0.8%5.9%11.3x6.9x1.1xNo.2 urea
IFFCO (unlisted)n.a.42,662 (FY25)——6.6%————Largest; own Paradeep complex (875 ktpa phos acid, 2,310 ktpa H₂SO₄) next door

*Coromandel includes NACL from Aug-25. EBITDA = operating profit ex-OI; EV = mcap + borrowings − cash; P/E on TTM PAT. EV workings: PPL 14,716+6,906−409 = 21,213 → 9.26x; Coromandel 50,332 → 15.78x; Chambal 15,176 → 5.53x; Deepak 22,459 → 11.14x; RCF 9,761 → 9.76x; GSFC 5,685 → 6.85x; NFL 6,993 → 6.91x.

Q1 FY27 peer print (EBITDA ex-OI)

CompanySalesEBITDAMarginPAT
Paradeep6,124 (+36%)72011.8%393
Coromandel8,165 (+15.9%)7569.3%382
Chambal5,02782616.4%524
Deepak3,25684526.0%490
RCF3,5862196.1%74
GSFC3,5832336.5%159
FACT1,253−30n.m.−62
NFL4,5002675.9%71

Strengths / weaknesses vs each peer

PeerPPL strongerPPL weaker
CoromandelFaster growth; half the multiple; OCP supply in crisis; N-20 franchise; urea cost-plusNet cash vs 2.9x ND/EBITDA; RoCE 22% vs ~14–15%; crop protection; own Senegal rock; Kakinada 650 TPD phos + 2,000 TPD H₂SO₄ (Q4 FY26, ₹1,100 Cr) + 7.5 lakh TPA NPK by Q4 FY27 targeting PPL's South
IFFCOListed agility; OCP backing2x revenue; co-op goodwill; nano IP; larger integrated complex at Paradeep
ChambalManufacturing integration margin vs trader exposureRoE 20%, ~zero net debt, PAT 9.4%, 7.9x
DeepakPhosphatic scale/distributionChemicals give 14.6% (Q1 26%) margins, lower subsidy dependence
RCF / NFL / FACT / GSFCHigher margins/RoE; integrated acidSovereign backing; GSFC debt-free with investments; FACT incumbent Factamfos in Kerala/TN

Industry structure, barriers, Porter

ForceIntensityRationale
Buyer powerMed-LowFragmented farmers, but GoI sets NBS/MRP; dealer destocking (Q1 NPK primary −9% vs farmer +6%)
Supplier powerHighOCP, Ma'aden, Jordan, China concentration; sulphur spot, Middle East-heavy
SubstitutesMed-LowP/K essential; SSP (+13%), TSP gaining; nano/natural farming long-term (17,632 clusters, 6.39 lakh ha)
New entrantsLowCapital (₹3,500–3,600 Cr), port land, rock offtake, ECs; DAP trading low-barrier caps margins
RivalryHighCommodity under common subsidy; co-ops/PSUs with cheap capital

Industry: Indian phosphatic ~24 Mt FY26 (DAP ~10, NPK ~14). DBT sales Apr–Dec 2025: urea 31.16 Mt (+3.8%), DAP 7.99 (−4.1%), NP/NPK 11.74 (+0.2%), SSP 4.71 (+13.1%), MOP 1.77 (+5.3%); imports urea +85.3%, DAP +45.7%, NPK +121.8%. Global MAP/DAP 2025 ~67.7 Mt (29.4 traded). Moat durability: Medium — cost/supply-security moat inside a price-controlled market, not a pricing-power moat. PPL is a price-taker.

Risks & Red Flags

#RiskCategorySeverityExplanationMitigant
1NBS cut/delay (Rabi 2026-27 not announced at 13 Oct)RegulatoryHighSubsidy 53% of revenue; FY27 P&K budget ₹54,000 Cr less Kharif ₹41,534 Cr leaves ~₹12,500 Cr [Est.]; FY24 NBS cut took PAT to ₹100 CrKharif-26 P rate +21% YoY; supplementary grants historically
2DAP MRP cap vs import parityRegulatoryHighUnder-recovery ~₹16–24k/t on imported DAP [Est.]; ~0.5 Mt Rabi imports (vs ~2.7 LMT last Rabi)Q1 sold mfd DAP; special packages
3Sulphur/ammonia/acid shock (Hormuz, China curbs)MacroHighRM ~74% of revenue; sulphur spot >$1,000/t; phos acid at ~70%; China phosphate exports suspended (formal 14 Mar–31 Aug 2026, no resumption at 11 Sep), H₂SO₄ exports halted from May-26Captive H₂SO₄ 2.0 MMTPA; IOCL/MRPL sulphur; OCP rock
4Debt, negative OCF, leverage near triggerFinancialHighDebt 4,014→5,100→6,906; ND/EBITDA ~2.85–2.9x vs 3x; ₹3,600 Cr capex 70% debt; "won't leverage further" (Feb-26) brokenAA- upgrade; Q1 debt −₹700 Cr; collections +43%
5Subsidy receivable stretchFinancialHigh₹3,847 Cr (KAM) → ₹4,600 Cr Jun-26 (~31% of mcap)Sovereign, nil credit risk; ₹1.71 lakh Cr budget
6Margin normalisation / earnings qualityBusinessHighQ1 ~₹7,000/t inventory-aided; implied ₹4,250–4,450/t Q2–Q4 [Est.]; CRISIL expects normalisationMgmt: trading won't dilute below guide
7Environmental / closure at ParadeepESGHighCPCB s.5 closure direction, conditionally revoked Apr-2024 (status unverified); Chanakana gypsum; 2008 SPCB order stayedZLD; 1.6 MMT recycled; CSA 76
8Related-party concentrationGovernanceMed~₹8,227 Cr OCP; Mahad ₹72.75 Cr; ZACL ₹61 Cr receivable; Simon India ₹57 Cr; ~₹2,800 Cr below shareholder-vote thresholdAudit committee; promoters abstain on RPT votes (99.99% non-promoter approval)
9Promoter pledge (new since FY25)GovernanceMed15.33% of promoter holding at Jun-26; ZACL 41% of its stakeZMPPL released ~6.49 Cr sh Aug-26; residual ~2.6% eq. [Est.]
10Customs TGU caseRegulatoryMed₹93.59 Cr order incl. s.114AA false-declaration penalty (reputational)Appeal; <10% of FY26 PAT
11Project slippageExecutionMedPhos acid 0.7 MTPA slipped ~1 yr vs Jul-25; mega-project end-FY28 → ~Q2 FY29; "Same timeline" deflectionSAP-D, Mangalore acid delivered on time
12Competitive capacityBusinessMedCoromandel Kakinada NPK + acids in South by Q4 FY27; IFFCO ParadeepBrand, OCP
13Urea energy norms (30 Jul 2026, retro 1 Apr 2025)RegulatoryMedCRISIL: legacy profitability −25% (₹1,700→1,250/t); Mangalore −₹700–800/t; possible Q2 true-up [UNVERIFIED]Goa +₹1,500/t
14CurrencyMacroMedFX outgo ₹13,953 Cr; FX loss ₹50.3 Cr; unhedged USD 131.65mForwards ₹5,012 Cr
15Institutional exitFinancialMedFPIs 122→53 Mn shares; SBI Multicap halvedMFs +67 Mn
16Monsoon / destockingMacroMedSeasonal; Q1 dealer destocking18 states
17Auditor rotation 2027 / EoM / Goa goodwillGovernanceLowNew auditor will re-look merger accounting, Goa goodwill (headroom thinner)Unmodified opinion
18MCFL integration & titleExecutionLow₹604.5 Cr land in MCFL's name pendingPhased integration
19Contingent liabilities / taxRegulatoryLow₹160.2 Cr; CARO ~₹170 Cr disputed; water charges rising~1% of net worth
20Governance hygieneGovernanceLow₹15 Cr electoral trust (FY25R); audit trail not enabled; PSOP 64.3% institutional dissent; MD pay +28%Clean CARO
21Substitution (nano, natural farming)BusinessLowLong-termNano Shakti
22Key person / successionGovernanceLowChairman 80; AR lists succession gapsNambiar Jt MD
23Myanmar JV / Western SaharaESGLowSanctions; ESG exclusion risk on Boucraa ₹2,087 CrImmaterial JV

Red-flag checklist

FlagStatusEvidence
Rising debtYes6,906 Mar-26; partly reversed to ~6,500 Jun-26
Negative cash flowYes (FY26)OCF −1,012; FCF −1,880; Q1 FY27 positive
Margin deteriorationWatchEx-OI 11.8% vs 12.9% YoY; inventory-aided
Auditor concernsMinorEoM; KAMs; audit trail
RPTMonitorOCP ₹8,227 Cr; Adventz transfers
Promoter selling / pledgePledge yes; selling noPledge 15.33% Jun-26 (market file's "not shown" overridden); promoter bought at ₹182
DilutionMinorMCFL 27.2% (one-off); options ~0.31%
LitigationYesCustoms ₹93.59 Cr; CPCB; entry tax at SC
Institutional sellingYes (FPI)FII 5.1%

Concall Highlights & Guidance

CallKey numbersKey statements / guidanceRisk Q&ATone
Q1 FY27
31 Jul 2026 (Antique; Nambiar, Singh, Biswal, Saxena)		Rev 6,124 (+36%); EBITDA 742 / 720 ex-OI; PAT 393; vol 9.85 LMT; DAP 2.45 (+55%), NPK 4.73 (−8.8%), urea 1.97 (−15.8%), MOP 0.65 (+110%); prod 7.66 LMT; H₂SO₄ +32%, phos acid +7%; traded 1.25 LMT; debt ~6,500; subsidy o/s 4,600"~₹7,000/t... mainly on account of the stock what we have got at the beginning of this year"; "realistic EBITDA for a year... around ₹5,000 per MT"; ₹7,000+ after expansion in 2–2.5 yrs; "do not have any specific long-term arrangement for sulphur"; ~70% phos-acid operation; AlF3 ₹250 Cr; phos acid 0.6 by Dec, 0.7 by Aug/Sep-27 ("Same timeline")Biyani (Elara) Q2 strain; Saumil Shah inventory; Mahawar curtailment/trading gap; Vignesh Iyer spot sulphur; Muchhal (HDFC AMC) mix reversibleCautiously re-confident
Q4 FY26
13 May 2026		FY26 rev 21,826, EBITDA 2,259, PAT ~1,000; Q4 EBITDA 484, ~₹5,700/t; FY26 ~₹5,300/t; D/E 1.01FY27 guidance withdrawn ("let things settle"); Q1 production 70–80%; Q2 RM "not secured"; FY27 capex ~₹600 Cr; Mangalore urea −₹3,000/t; make-vs-buy acid ₹3,000→1,500–2,000/tNBS hike ~10% vs input inflation; industry NPK −1% vs PPL +10%; no mfd-only EBITDA/tCautious/defensive
Q3 FY26
4 Feb 2026		Rev 5,749; PAT 182; ~₹4,700/t; net debt ~5,450; subsidy 3,780FY27 "endeavour" ₹4,500–5,000/t; margin ~11%; gross debt near ~₹5,400 Cr, "do not want to leverage further"; capex FY26 ~₹500 Cr; phos acid +0.2 in Q2 FY27; sulphur normalises "in about two months"Sulphur 3x with NBS lag; Mangalore energy cliff; tax swing unansweredConfident; defensive on debt
Q2 FY26
7 Nov 2025 (first consolidated)		Rev 6,872 (+49%); EBITDA 698; PAT 342; sales 13.55 LMT; ~₹5,200/t; net D/E 0.66; CCC 58 days; subsidy 3,275₹3,600 Cr expansion (Paradeep ~2,450; Mangalore ~1,150); phasing ₹500 FY26 / ₹1,500 FY27 / ₹1,500 FY28; ops end-FY28; 70% debt; ₹4,000–5,000/t maintainable; mfg volume capped FY27–28Debt-funded capex; trading dilution; margin 13%→10%; inconsistent volume rangesExpansive
Q1 FY26
30 Jul 2025 (standalone)		Rev 3,754 (+58%); EBITDA ~493; PAT 256; ~₹6,600/t; gross debt ~4,000; cash ~1,200"sustainable number... around 5,000"; debt "near about this level"; sulphur on annual LT formula contracts; phos acid 0.7 by ~Sep 2026Inventory gains unquantified (₹120–150 Cr analyst est.); receivable days "<50" vs "~100"Euphoric
Q4 FY25
8 May 2025 (standalone)		FY25 rev 13,820; EBITDA 1,367; Q4 EBITDA 389; sales 3.03 MT; net D/E 0.78₹4,500–5,000/t sustainable; declined to endorse ₹5,500 by FY27; FY26 capex ~₹500 Cr; Odisha MoU ₹4,000 Cr; trading ₹2,000–2,500/t below mfgGoa compressor failure 12–20 Mar 2025; NBS inventory gains; ₹500/t DAP special balanceConfident

Guidance vs actuals (credibility check)

ItemGuided (when)Actual / latestVerdict
FY26 volume>3.7 MT (May-25); 4.0–4.3 (Nov-25)4.21 MTMet
FY26 EBITDA/t4,500–5,000 / ~5,000~5,300–5,364Beat
FY26 margin~11% (Feb-26)~10.4%Roughly
Q1 FY27 production70–80% capacity~83%Met
FY27 EBITDA/t4,500–5,000 → withdrawn → ~5,000Q1 ~7,000 (inventory)Unstable
Post-integration EBITDA/t+₹1,000–1,500 → +30–35% → 7,000+n/aTarget rising as timeline slips
Gross debt~₹5,400 Cr, "won't leverage further" (Feb-26)6,872 (Mar-26); 6,500 (Jun-26)Missed
LeverageNet D/E to improve from 0.780.66 (Sep-25) → ~0.95 (Mar-26)Deteriorated
Subsidy receivable"budgeted, no delay"3,275 → 4,600 in 9 months (+40%)Worse
Paradeep H₂SO₄ +0.5 MT4–5 months, ₹480 Cr29 Sep 2025, ₹510 CrOn time
Mangalore H₂SO₄ 300 TPDEnd-Q4 FY2631 Mar 2026, ₹240 CrOn time
Goa energyQ4 FY26, ₹190–200 CrApr-26, ₹220 CrSlight slip
Phos acid 0.5→0.7~Sep-26 (Jul-25); Q2 FY27 (Feb-26)0.6 Dec-26; 0.7 Aug–Sep-27Slipping
₹3,600 Cr mega-capex₹1,500 Cr FY27; ops end-FY28FY27 ~₹600 Cr; ~Q2 FY29Slip
FY27 incremental EBITDA ~₹350 CrNov-25 / Feb-26Q1 +₹127 Cr YoY; acid delta halvedAt risk
Sulphur normalisation"~2 months" (Feb-26)>$1,000/t by Jul-26Wrong
Mangalore energy cliff₹3,000–4,000/t~₹3,000/tCorrect
EBITDA/t (₹): quarterly prints vs FY27 guide and implied Q2–Q4 [Est.] 6,5005,2004,7005,700~7,0005,000~4,390 Q1FY26Q2Q3Q4Q1FY27FY27 guideQ2–Q4 impl.
Implied Q2–Q4 arithmetic [Est.]: FY27 EBITDA ≈ ₹5,000/t × V. Q1 ≈ ₹7,000/t × 9.85 LMT ≈ ₹690 Cr. Remaining = (50V − 690) / (V − 9.85) ×100. At V = 42.1 LMT (FY26 level) → ~₹4,390/t; V = 36–46 LMT → ₹4,250–4,450/t.

Recurring themes & contradictions

Growth, Outlook & Valuation

No order book — revenue depends on capacity, NBS/MRP and channel demand; ~100% repeat channel sales. Visibility proxies: urea RAC (Goa ~4–4.5 LMT; Mangalore ~4–4.4 LMT), ~0.5 MT Rabi imports locked, OCP supply contracts (Aug-2025), subsidy receipts ~₹2,500–2,650 Cr/qtr.

Capacity pipeline & capex

ProjectSizeTimingCapex
H₂SO₄ Paradeep SAP-D+0.5 MMTPADone Sep-2025₹510 Cr
H₂SO₄ Mangalore100→400 TPDDone 31 Mar 2026₹240 Cr
5th evaporatorSPA 0.3→0.4Done Dec-2025
Goa energy Ph-2 / Ph-36.4→6.1→~5.7 Gcal/tApr-2026 / H1 FY29~₹220 Cr
Phos acid Ph-10.5→0.6→0.7 MMTPADec-2026 / Aug–Sep 2027Equipment ordered
Granulation debottleneck3.7→4.0 MMTPADec-2026 (+0.1 FY28)Contract awarded
Mega programme+1.0 MMTPA granulation; +0.3 phos acid + ~1.0 H₂SO₄ Paradeep; Mangalore +0.25 phos / +0.75 H₂SO₄ (CRU); group H₂SO₄ 3.53, phos acid 1.0 (co.) / 1.2 (ICRA)One shot ~Q2 FY29 (was end-FY28)₹3,500–3,600 Cr, 70% debt (granulation ~800; Paradeep acids ~1,500; Mangalore ~1,300 [Est.]); CRISIL ~₹4,000 Cr over 3 yrs; EC: Paradeep acids in hand, granulation exp. Aug–Sep 2026, Mangalore applied
AlF315 ktpa~mid-2028₹250 Cr
Green ammonia (SIGHT/SECI)75k (SECI) / 1.15 lakh MTPA (AR)2–3 yrsThird-party
Odisha MoUPhos/sulphuric acid, gypsum—₹4,000 Cr

Catalysts

Short-term (12m): Q2 FY27 results by 14 Nov 2026; Rabi 2026-27 NBS rates (from 1 Oct, pending) and special DAP package; Sep-26 SHP (~21 Oct) — pledge, FPI flows; phos acid 0.6 + granulation 4.0 by Dec-26; urea-policy true-up; sulphur/China export normalisation; customs appeal.
Long-term (3–5y): 5.0 MMTPA by FY29; 100% acid integration (+30–35% EBITDA, ₹7,000+/t); AlF3 and non-subsidy ≥20% of EBITDA; Goa 5.7 Gcal/t; green ammonia; consolidation; DAP→NPK balanced nutrition.

Street estimates & targets

HouseRatingTP (₹)DateBasis / status
PL CapitalAccumulate15831 Jul / 4 Aug 202613x FY28E EPS; Q1 EBITDA ₹7.2bn vs PL ₹4.3bn, cons. ₹4.5bn. History: 120 (initiation 23 Mar 2026) → 141 (13 May) → 133 (1 Jun, plant visit) → 158. ₹133 is an earlier June target [Fact, verified]
Elara (Prashant Biyani)Buy15613 May 20268x FY28E EV/EBITDA; cut 37% from 247 (5 Feb 2026; prior 238); FY27E EBITDA −27%, PAT −38%
JM Financial"Neutral"?161undated[UNVERIFIED] single blog; last verified Buy 160 (8 May 2025)
Kotak"Neutral"?148undated[UNVERIFIED]
Antiquen/a—2025"Top pick in fertilisers" (Reuters 2025); hosts calls
Consensus (4 analysts)3 Buy / 0 Hold / 1 Sellmedian ~16013 Oct 2026Mean 161.6–165.75; range 135–185 (unattributed tails); +13% to median
Consensus EPSFY27E ₹8.57 (7.5–9.6; −14% vs FY26) · FY28E ₹11.82 (10.4–13.3) · revenue FY27E ~₹25,000 Cr, FY28E ~₹24,700 Cr · implied P/E 16.5x FY27E / 12.0x FY28E
PL forecastsFY27E rev ₹27,702 Cr / EBITDA ex-OI ₹2,138 Cr; FY28E ₹28,706 / ₹2,601 Cr; Q2 FY27E ₹7,618 / ₹508 Cr
OthersMarketsMojo Sell (11 May) → Buy (11 Aug 2026); Univest 12M ₹180 (bull 205 / bear 145); SWS bull FV ₹250 / bear ₹170; Trade Brains prefers Chambal on quality

Valuation vs history (merger-adjusted)

MetricCurrentFY23FY24FY25RFY263-yr avg3-yr median
Price (₹)142~50~66~103~107
Mcap (₹ Cr)14,7164,1055,41010,73311,304
EV~20,800–21,2008,7109,33314,531~17,800
P/E13.7x13.5x54.2x16.2x11.3x13.7x ex-FY2416.2x
P/B2.17x1.17x1.52x1.83x1.67x1.67x1.67x
EV/EBITDA ex-OI9.1–9.3x10.7x13.9x9.2x8.1x10.4x9.2x
Dividend yield1.06%1.0%0.76%0.97%1.40%~1.0%
FCF yield−12.8%−68.5%+18.9%+11.1%−16.6%

Alternative (Zerodha): P/E 14.6x vs 3-yr avg 25.7x; EV/EBITDA 9.7x vs 12.5x — not merger-adjusted. Forward P/E 16.0x (S&P) > trailing → consensus expects lower FY27 EPS. Only P/B is at a premium (+30%), consistent with RoE 2.8% → ~16%. Net debt ~42–44% of mcap. No buybacks ever.

Scenario frame [Analyst View]

CaseAssumptionsFY28E EPSMultipleValue (₹)
BullNBS catches up; sulphur eases; acid 0.7 on time; ₹6,000/t FY28~13.314x~185
BaseConsensus FY28E; ~₹5,000–5,500/t~11.813x~155
BearSulphur >$1,000 persists; ND/EBITDA >3x; downgrade~8.012x~95–100

Final Verdict

Business QualityMedium
Management QualityMedium
Financial QualityWeak
ValuationAttractive
Overall ViewNeutral

Bull case

  1. No.3 complex player (~14% share) with integration (~US$150/t acid), captive berth and OCP supply security; Q1 farmer sales +15–16% vs industry ~1%.
  2. Cheap: 13.7x P/E, ~9x EV/EBITDA, half Coromandel; RoE recovered to ~16%; FY27 estimates already cut 27–38%.
  3. Step-change from FY29: 5 MMTPA, 100% acid integration, ₹7,000+/t, AlF3 non-subsidy EBITDA.

Bear case

  1. Cash conversion terrible: 5-yr OCF −₹348 Cr vs PAT ₹2,460 Cr; ND/EBITDA ~2.9x vs 3x trigger as ₹3,600 Cr debt-funded capex begins.
  2. Raw-material shock (spot sulphur >$1,000/t, China curbs, Hormuz) with capped DAP MRP and lagging NBS — Q2–Q4 implied ~₹4,390/t.
  3. Governance: OCP/Adventz RPTs (~₹8,227 Cr), new pledge, customs s.114AA penalty, 64% institutional PSOP dissent, slipping timelines, auditor rotation 2027.

Base case (12–18m)

FY27 EBITDA/t ~₹4,800–5,200, EPS ~₹8.5; debt stays ₹6,300–7,000 Cr through H2 imports; NBS partial top-up; acid 0.6 by Dec-26 with modest slippage. Stock range-bound ₹130–165 until FY28 integration becomes visible; base value ~₹155 (13x FY28E).

5 things to remember

  1. 53% of revenue is GoI subsidy; margins = NBS + capped MRP − global sulphur/ammonia/acid.
  2. Q1 FY27 ₹742 Cr (₹720 ex-OI) was inventory-aided; guidance ~₹5,000/t implies ~₹4,250–4,450/t for Q2–Q4.
  3. Debt ₹6,906 Cr (Mar-26) / ~₹6,500 Cr (Jun-26); subsidy receivable ₹4,600 Cr; CRISIL trigger 3x.
  4. FY25 is restated for MCFL; Dec-25 shareholding % drops are dilution — FPIs truly exited in 2026 (53 Mn shares), MFs bought.
  5. ~₹8,227 Cr OCP purchases; pledge 15.33% (Jun-26) partly released Aug-26; customs ₹93.59 Cr under appeal.

5 questions before investing

  1. What is manufactured-only EBITDA/t in Q2 FY27, and how much inventory gain was in Q1?
  2. Will Rabi NBS rates and the special DAP package cover $1,000+ sulphur — or does phos acid stay at ~70%?
  3. What is the peak-debt path through FY29, and how does management stay below 3x net leverage?
  4. Why did FY26 capex print ₹1,073 Cr (AR) vs ~₹500 Cr guided — and who is the ZACL pledgee / what is the ₹61 Cr receivable?
  5. How will a new auditor (2027) treat the retrospective merger accounting and Goa goodwill?
Opinion [Analyst View]: Neutral with a positive bias. Paradeep is an integrated, gaining, cheaply-priced No.3 complex-fertiliser franchise, but cash conversion, leverage at the rating trigger and promoter-group entanglement justify a discount. Accumulate only below ~₹130 or after a Q2 FY27 that holds ≥₹4,500/t with debt ≤₹6,500 Cr; reassess on Rabi NBS rates.

Sources

All accessed 13 Oct 2026 unless stated. Merged and de-duplicated from the financials, business, governance, narrative, market and street-sentiment workstreams. Primary text extracts (FY26 AR, Q1 FY27 transcript, deck, press release) held in scratchpad\paradeep_txt.

Company filings & documents

Concall transcripts

Ratings

Broker research & consensus

Financial databases & shareholding

News, filings aggregators & media

Policy, industry & commodities

Not obtained (stated gaps): Q2 FY27 results; Sep-26 SHP; Rabi 2026-27 NBS; FY22–24 subsidy splits; Goa purchase price; pledgee identity; CRISIL Sep-26 rationale detail; company-wise FAI market shares; ValuePickr/Reddit threads.